The worst weather of NFL Week 7 could come from London, where the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots will face off in Wembley Stadium. With rain, wind, and middling temperatures expected to impact the game through at least the first half, what should fantasy football managers do in general when it comes to this game, and what are the fantasy outlooks for all the main options taking to the field today?
What Is the NFL London Weather Forecast for Week 7’s Patriots vs. Jaguars Game?
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: <90% chance at kickoff decreasing throughout the game
- Wind: 15-20 mph northeasterly
UK Weather data is from BBC Weather and correct as of Oct. 20 at 6:30 a.m. ET. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
If it wasn’t bad enough that the final London game is between two 1-5 teams with temperamental offenses, the weather forecast may make this game an even worse offensive showing.
At kickoff, there is expected to be around a 90% chance of rain in northwest London and, with it, wind speeds of anywhere up to 20 mph. That is a pretty tricky combination when you then throw in sub-70 temperatures.
Wembley is a tricky stadium when it comes to the wind because it is very high-sided and has a partial roof. That can reduce the impact of the wind, but it can also swirl around under the partial roof and make things difficult to predict. Therefore, let’s focus on the fantasy impact of the combination of rain and temperatures in the low 60s.
Gloomy skies over Wembley Stadium this morning, majority of seats are covered but playing surface and seats closest to the pitch get wet. #ASJax @ActionSportsJax https://t.co/sEmZG2S3Ha pic.twitter.com/7Ar6E9jfnz
— Stuart Webber (@StuartASJax) October 20, 2024
Dating back to 2019, 32 games have kicked off in similar conditions to those forecasted in London today. The average PPR fantasy output across those games is 82.7, which is considerably lower than what we see on a clear day with warmer temperatures.
That is about a 15-20% decrease in fantasy output on average across those games, which is significant when talking about mediocre offenses.
The combination of wind in the 15-19 mph region and rain produces around a 25-30% decrease in fantasy output on average. With the wind an unknown, we’re starting at a baseline of around a 15% decrease in fantasy output and moving anywhere up to that 30% mark.
That is a wide range, but the message is clear. Approach this London game with extreme caution from a fantasy perspective.
One final element to consider is that Wembley has had the ninth-lowest fantasy output per game of 39 stadiums since 2019. When it comes to the passing game, it ranks seventh from last and is the 12th-lowest in the running game.
These weather conditions and this stadium favor no one in this matchup. If you can avoid the majority of it from a fantasy perspective, that might be wise.
Which Jaguars Players Should I Start or Sit?
Trevor Lawrence, QB
Trevor Lawrence has three straight games with multiple touchdown passes. Yet, he still doesn’t have a top-10 finish on his ledger this season.
There’s some upside to flirt with here from a profile point of view (career highs in average depth of throw and yards per deep pass attempt), but I prefer Lawrence in a catch-up spot, something that is hard to envision happening Sunday morning.
There will be a spot to grab some DFS exposure (maybe Week 16 at Las Vegas), but outside of that, you don’t need to devote much brain power in this direction.
Tank Bigsby, RB
With Travis Etienne Jr. now being labeled as “week-to-week,” this is the time for Tank Bigsby to shine. The game script won’t be an issue because the Patriots have yet to prove capable of scoring points in a neutral game state against just about anyone, meaning a career touch count isn’t just possible — it’s projected.
Despite limited usage, Bigsby already has four gains of 25+ yards, with plenty of that work coming after the defense got to him. On his 41 carries this season, 80.8% of Bigsby’s yards have come after contact. That could be spun a variety of ways, but in this matchup, I’m not sure it matters as the Pats rank 26th in running back yards allowed both before and after contact.
The lack of prowess in the passing game (one target this season) is what keeps Bigsby outside of my top 15, but he’s pretty clearly a strong RB2 in all formats for as long as Etienne is on the shelf. (Jacksonville gets Green Bay next week and travels to Philadelphia for Week 9.)
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
Doug Pederson came out on Monday and labeled Etienne as “week-to-week” as a result of a hamstring injury suffered early in Week 5.
Thank God.
Not that he’s hurt, but that we don’t have to worry about touch distribution in Jacksonville’s backfield for Week 7. When both Etienne and Bigsby are healthy, this is going to be a difficult situation to project, but it’s rare for a player to be labeled “week-to-week” and not miss at least some time.
As for Etienne’s profile, your eyes aren’t deceiving you — he’s not the same guy he was last season:
- -17.2% production compared to expectation (2023: +8.5%)
- 1.09 fantasy points per target (2023: 1.58)
- 2.43 yards per carry after contact (2023: 2.87)
We will have to struggle with his ranking in future weeks, but Etienne should remain rostered as he recovers from this injury.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
This kid is all sorts of special, and we’re seeing the sparks of that potential, even in a Jaguars offense that, as a whole, is struggling.
Brian Thomas Jr. had two catches in Jacksonville’s first seven plays last week, but he only had one grab the rest of the way, resulting in fantasy frustrations. Still, the foundation remains.
Thomas dropped what should have been a 15-yard touchdown. If he collects that pass, the story of his Week 6 changes in a significant way.
Remove a slow NFL debut, and BTJ is averaging 93.6 air yards per game. Obviously, not all air yards are created equal, but that metric alone has proven pretty predictive. In fact, last season, 13 of the top 19 per-game PPR receivers got to that number on a per-game basis.
Thomas is going to be an asset for years to come, but what about Week 7?
Well, it depends on what version of the Patriots shows up. Twice this season (Seattle and Houston) has a team seen multiple receivers clear 18.5 PPR points, a level of production that is off the charts and within the range of outcomes if you’re buying the signs of growth this Jaguars passing game has shown recently (multiple TD passes in three straight games, 73.9% complete over the past two weeks).
Of course, there are two sides to both coins that we are flipping here. Outside of those two matchups, the Patriots haven’t allowed a single receiver to reach 14.5 PPR points, including games facing the 49ers, Bengals, and Dolphins.
While there have been some positive signals for Jacksonville, this is still a 1-5 team that is struggling to put together 60 good minutes. I’m generally bullish on Thomas and have him ranked as a fringe top-20 option at the position in this spot.
Christian Kirk, WR
I was optimistic about this Jags passing attack entering the season, and while that has resulted in some nice production from Thomas, Christian Kirk has left me unsatisfied in half of his games this season (including a 3-39-0 stat line against the Bears last week).
We are approaching Halloween, and yet, 25% of Kirk’s fantasy points have come on two single receptions. In theory, his slot role next to BTJ on the perimeter should come with a reasonable floor, but that just hasn’t been the case in a sporadic Trevor Lawrence season.
With a sub-62% catch rate (2023: 67.1%), Kirk offers more risk than reward weekly. The Patriots have allowed the 10th-highest passer rating when opponents target the slot this season, so there is certainly a path to a WR2 finish for Kirk.
That’s enough for him to move into my Flex rankings, though the low floor of this offense as a whole prohibits him from graduating into my WR2 tier in anything but a perfect matchup.
Evan Engram, TE
There’s a return to action — and then there’s what Evan Engram did in London last week.
After sitting out four straight games due to an injury suffered in warmups ahead of Week 2, Engram turned a 61.7% snap share into 10 catches on 10 targets (his seventh game with double-digit receptions) and 102 yards (his sixth 100-yard game of his career).
No big deal. He was targeted on 31.3% of his routes (2023: 23.4%), and that rate jumped to 40% on first downs. Lawrence clearly was happy to have his most reliable weapon back (all other Jaguars: 52% catch rate in Week 6), and fantasy managers should rejoice that we’ve added a lineup lock to a position that lacks such options.
I will caution daily players — assuming that future players returning to action will be thrust into such a role is dangerous at best (and more likely reckless). I can’t imagine that T.J. Hockenson’s recovery plan mirrors that of Engram, so use this as a nice data point for Jacksonville’s TE, not one that is broadly predictive.
Which Patriots Players Should I Start or Sit?
Drake Maye, QB
The rookie showed well in his first career start last week with 19.5 fantasy points (Jacoby Brissett didn’t have a single game with 11 points this season). Skeptics will point to the blowout nature of that game, and to them, I say … so what? Are you expecting the Patriots to be competitive on any sort of consistent basis?
The 40-yard touchdown to Kayshon Boutte was a thing of beauty and helped make up for Drake Maye’s first 13 passes netting just 65 yards. I find it unlikely that Maye makes much noise in the way of wins and losses for New England, but I wouldn’t be shocked if his versatility resulted in a few usable fantasy weeks.
The Jags rank 27th in pressure and 31st in blitz rate this season. I’m using this week as one to further scout Maye and see if I can carve out an opponent profile that works for a late-season spot-start/cheap DFS build.
Antonio Gibson, RB
Antonio Gibson had a chance to impress last week, and he fell flat (13 carries for 19 yards). We are three years removed from Gibson being a featured back, and with the Patriots trusting him with just 61.9% of the RB carries with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined, it’s clear that they don’t view him as a bell cow.
Maye has generated some excitement in New England, but for me, the upside he brings doesn’t impact the backfield in a significant way. Once we get word that Stevenson is healthy, Gibson returns to a ranking outside of my Flex range and could conceivably be cut in a pinch.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
The Jaguars have plenty of problems, but they are contacting running backs, on average, less than 2.5 yards downfield, a rate that ranks behind only elite run defenses in Baltimore and Kansas City. With Stevenson trying to come back from a foot injury and producing the worst per-play expected-points-added mark of his career, he’s far from a safe play should he suit up.
Assuming he’s back in the mix, Stevenson’s three top-12 finishes this season earn him the nod as a Flex option ahead of Gibson, though the range of outcomes is wide in a new-look offense that offers more athleticism under center.
Gibson has been productive enough to continue seeing 8-12 touches, a role that is just annoying enough to hold Stevenson back from RB2 status, but not enough to hold standalone value in an offense that is still limited.
DeMario Douglas, WR
DeMario Douglas hauled in six of nine targets for 92 yards and a score against the Texans last week in Maye’s first career start, resulting in the first New England WR top-20 finish of the season.
The early returns were positive, but I’d caution against getting over your skies after a single game. Douglas earned the right to be my highest-ranked Patriots pass catcher this week in a matchup with the worst EPA pass defense in the league, but that only lands him in the middling Flex tier.
Maye offers plenty of upside that this offense didn’t previously have access to, but don’t mistake a ceiling for stability.
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR
The 1-5 Patriots are motivated to see what their future looks like, and Ja’Lynn Polk is likely a part of that. Polk turned four Maye targets into a whopping four yards last week. While that’s not exactly what we had in mind, remember that it’s only a single data point.
I saw enough from the rookie QB to think that there might be some value to extract from this offense as we approach the second half of the fantasy season, which makes Polk a reasonable luxury stash. There might not be redraft value here, but we don’t know that for sure, and I’m happy to invest in some uncertainty for a few weeks to see how New England’s offense develops.
Hunter Henry, TE
Hunter Henry saw his most targets in a game since Week 2 and caught his first touchdown of the season in Maye’s starting debut. Henry’s slot rate is up for a second consecutive season (40.4% through six weeks this season, 35.3% a season ago). That puts him in a position to soak up efficient targets in an offense that might have a touch of upside moving forward.
My concern here is the replication of skills. Douglas is valuable close to the line of scrimmage and so are the running backs on this roster, leaving Henry, for now, as more risk than reward when I stack up the position.
I like Henry’s role potential more than Dalton Schultz or Zach Ertz moving forward. But with them possessing much more scoring equity due to the potency of their offenses, I need more than a single Maye Day for me to rank Henry as a viable option every week.