NFL insider Adam Schefter believes Mike Vrabel is the hottest name among potential head coaches this cycle. Schefter reported Sunday morning that one team in particular is rumored to have a more than passing interest in the former Tennessee Titans coach.
Mike Vrabel Could Return to Familiar Spot
On Sunday of Week 18, Schefter told viewers that Bob Kraft, the owner of the New England Patriots, is not happy with the team potentially having the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Kraft is tired of losing and could, as a result, move away from current head coach Jerod Mayo.
Schefter specifically said ownership is “leaning to out” regarding Mayo’s potential return next season.
A spin on the NFL coaching carousel. pic.twitter.com/VqBSp7CSq2
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 5, 2025
The hiring of a guy like Vrabel would pay immediate dividends for last year’s first-round selection, quarterback Drake Maye. Despite playing linebacker during his NFL career, Vrabel is considered more of an offensive coach than Mayo and has a history of hiring top offensive coaches. Thus, he can develop an offense around Maye capable of scoring more points.
New England will not be able to take its time with this move. Vrabel is a hot commodity and will be highly sought after by several teams. He’s already interviewed with the Patriots’ division rivals, the New York Jets.
Kraft would love to bring home the prodigal son as Vrabel played on Super Bowl-winning teams with the Patriots during his career.
When Arthur Smith was the Titans’ offensive coordinator from 2019-20 under Vrabel, Tennessee ranked fifth in points per game and second in yards per play behind only the Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee ranked in the top 10 in scoring offenses for both seasons, the first time since a seven-season stretch from 1987 to 1993 (when they were the Houston Oilers) that the franchise fielded consecutive top-10 PPG offenses.
In PFN’s Offense+ metric, the Titans were the No. 6 offense in 2019, then improved to No. 2 in 2020. Ryan Tannehill was graded out as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, finishing fifth in PFN’s QB+ metric in both seasons.
One way to measure whether a team is overachieving is to look at betting data. If a team is covering more often than other teams, that indicates it’s outperforming its public perception.
From 2021-22, the Titans covered 56% of their games, the seventh-best mark in the NFL over that span. Tennessee also covered 56% of its games during the 2019 season, when it became the sixth No. 6 seed ever to make the Conference Championship round.
So, in three of Vrabel’s six seasons, the Titans significantly exceeded expectations, measured by their performance against the spread.
The Titans won on the margins, particularly when it came to penalties and turnovers. During Vrabel’s tenure, Tennessee had the third-best penalty margin, committing 88 fewer penalties than their opponents from 2018-23.