Sam Darnold had a great season with the Minnesota Vikings, but it didn’t end the way he had hoped. The quarterback played poorly in the team’s two biggest games of the season, and the Vikings were eliminated in the Wild Card Round by the Los Angeles Rams.
Darnold, who was on a one-year, $10 million deal with Minnesota, is set to be a free agent after the season. Many thought his market value would take a significant hit due to how he played against the Rams and Detroit Lions. Surprisingly, that may not be the case, as he is still considered the best quarterback available in the upcoming free agent class, according to NFL insider James Palmer.
James Palmer Sheds Light on Sam Darnold’s Market Value
Palmer provided insight into Darnold’s situation and revealed the quarterback’s reputation around the league didn’t take a big hit due to his recent performances.
“I talked to an executive in the AFC and an executive in the NFC yesterday, and they told me the same thing, there are too many quarterback-needy teams out there, to have his market dramatically change even after these two games,” said Palmer via Bleacher Report. “They both told me probably the perception of his turnaround has been altered more than his market, and it’s because there’s more teams and there’s fewer quarterbacks.”
“There’s really only about two quarterbacks at the top of this draft in Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward. I know Quinn Ewers declared today to come out. I’m told by both these guys, he [Darnold] is still the belle of the ball, the top of the free agent market class, and then one of them told me it may not even be close.”
Palmer mentioned that due to him being just 27 years old, Darnold is expected to get a deal north of $30 million. Those executives also mentioned that the Vikings wouldn’t be wise if they let him leave in free agency.
If Minnesota uses the franchise tag on Darnold, then the quarterback will earn over $40 million next year. Minnesota has $70 million in cap space, so they can afford him; however, the likelihood of the USC product playing for the Vikings next season is low. The franchise could allow J.J. McCarthy, the quarterback they drafted with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, to take over without any real competition.
Minnesota has a roster capable of winning the Super Bowl, but it likely will be in its best interest to choose McCarthy over Darnold. The latter folded under pressure in the biggest games of the season, and it might just be who he is based on the large sample size of his seven-year NFL career that has just recently shown extended stretches of brilliance.
By PFN’s QB+ metric, Darnold finished as the season’s 12th-best quarterback, far exceeding expectations and setting a high floor for his market in free agency.
The Vikings lost the last two games of the season with a combined score of 58-18. Darnold threw for 411 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in these two games. He completed 53.1% of his throws with a passer rating of 66.4 and was sacked 11 times.
Starting McCarthy next season with Daniel Jones as his backup could extend the Vikings’ Super Bowl window, and there’s a chance the former Michigan quarterback could play better than Darnold did this past season.
Potential Landing Spots for Darnold
The Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts could pursue Darnold in free agency. Shane Steichen, the Colts’ head coach, might want to sign Darnold in a desperate attempt to save his job, as Anthony Richardson has so far shown that he’s not reliable. Indianapolis cannot afford to go another year without competent quarterbacking.
As for the Raiders, they played themselves out of a top draft pick and currently have the No. 6 pick in the upcoming draft. If they fail to trade up to get Sanders or Ward, the AFC West franchise might bring in Darnold on a one- or two-year deal.
The Cleveland Browns are also another team that could go for Darnold, as their roster is also full of veterans who are looking to compete next season. The Browns have the second pick, and they might draft a quarterback, but Darnold could act as a bridge quarterback while keeping Cleveland relevant.
Had he played well in the last two games, Darnold may have earned a multi-year deal of over $100 million. Although his reputation around the league didn’t take a big hit, his free agency may be more about finding the highest short-term bidder than a willing long-term partner.