With the NFL Divisional Round coming to an end, a surprising fact stands out: the eight highest-paid quarterbacks (by average annual value) are all watching from home. This stat sets the stage for an interesting conversation about the current state of quarterback salaries and where the remaining contenders stand.
In a league where the quarterback is king, their paychecks often reflect their importance to a team’s success. But the reality is that even the highest earners can fall short when it matters most.
Average Annual Value of Remaining Quarterback Contracts
Despite the teams with the eight highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL currently being eliminated from the playoffs, the remaining four quarterbacks include some notable names. Among them are Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Washington Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels.
Jalen Hurts: Ninth ($51,000,000)
Hurts, who has led the Philadelphia Eagles to four consecutive postseasons, continues to prove his worth as one of the league’s top signal-callers. The former MVP runner-up signed a five-year, $255 million deal with an average annual value (AAV) of $51 million.
Hurts’ deal includes $179 million in guaranteed money, reflecting his value as a cornerstone player. As his contract runs through 2028, Philadelphia is committed to him, hoping that Hurts will continue to grow not only in skill but also as a leader as adversity mounts on the path to a Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes: 12th, tied ($45,000,000)
Mahomes, the face of the Kansas City Chiefs’ dynasty, falls to 12th on the list with a more team-friendly deal, while arguably also having the most famous contract in the NFL.
While Mahomes’ 10-year contract extension is the most lucrative in NFL history, his AAV of $45 million currently ranks lower than other quarterbacks. The deal allows the Chiefs to keep their roster flexible while ensuring that Mahomes, with his rolling guarantees, remains at the heart of the franchise for years to come. At some point, he’ll likely renegotiate to improve his earnings.
Josh Allen: 14th ($43,000,000)
The Buffalo Bills’ path to a Super Bowl is headlined by, Josh Allen, who signed his contract extension in 2021. With the inflation of quarterback salaries, he now sits 14th in AAV at $43 million. Allen’s six-year, $258 million deal with the Bills includes $150 million in guarantees, and with restructures in place, he’s poised for future cap flexibility.
He leads the remaining passers in terms of PFN’s QB+ metric, where he currently ranks third. QB+ assigns a letter grade to every quarterback performance and factors in several stats such as success rate when pressured, third-down conversion rate, pocket production, and clutch performance.
Jayden Daniels: 24th ($9,436,663)
The most surprising name among the quarterbacks still left in the playoffs is Daniels, the 2023 Heisman winner. One of the NFL’s brightest young stars, Daniels was the second pick in the NFL Draft, securing a deal worth $37.75 million over four years, with a $24.3 million signing bonus. He ended his regular season as the league’s ninth-best passer by QB+.
Jayden Daniels on the Verge of Making History
Daniels is just the sixth rookie quarterback to reach a conference championship.
This group includes Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers, 2022), Mark Sanchez (New York Jets, 2009), Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens, 2008), Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers, 2004), and Shaun King (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1999).
With the previous five all having lost, he could become the first rookie quarterback to win a conference championship game and lead a team to the Super Bowl in NFL history.
Who Are the Highest-Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL?
With quarterback salaries seemingly soaring every few years, the league’s highest-paid players are expected to carry their teams deep into the playoffs. But as we’ve seen this postseason, even the priciest contracts don’t always guarantee postseason success. Here’s a look at the eight highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL by average annual value (per Over the Cap).
- Dak Prescott: $60M
- Trevor Lawrence: $55M
- Joe Burrow: $55M
- Jordan Love: $55M
- Tua Tagovailoa: $53.1M
- Jared Goff: $53M
- Justin Herbert: $52.5M
- Lamar Jackson: $52M
In sports, big contracts don’t always lead to big wins. This year’s Divisional Round has shown that even the most expensive players can come up short.
With young stars like Jayden Daniels still in the running, it’s clear having a star quarterback on a rookie contract is the biggest cap advantage teams can ask for.
Eagles vs. Commanders Game Preview
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Date: Jan. 26, Sunday
- Channel: Fox/Fox Deportes
With one more win, Daniels can become the first rookie quarterback to start in the Super Bowl. Daniels will be the sixth rookie QB to start in the Conference Championship Round; the prior five went 0-5 and performed disastrously.
Including the playoffs, Daniels ranks first in EPA per dropback when blitzed (0.36). While still effective against standard pass rushes, his EPA per dropback drops to 0.10 (13th) in those situations.
During this playoff run, Daniels became the first rookie QB in NFL history to record 275 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in a playoff win, the first rookie to beat a No. 1 seed since Joe Flacco in 2008, and the third rookie QB to win two road playoff games (joining Flacco and Mark Sanchez).
Now, Daniels will face an Eagles defense that blitzes at the second-lowest rate of any team this season, including playoffs. During their two regular-season matchups, Daniels punished the Eagles’ blitz, producing an incredible 1.03 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback and 14.5 yards per attempt when blitzed.
Philadelphia only blitzed him on 14 of his 84 dropbacks (17%) in those games. Against their non-blitz pass rush, Daniels was far less effective, averaging a modest -0.02 EPA per dropback.
Saquon Barkley had significant success against Washington. In their two matchups, Barkley rushed for 451 yards and four touchdowns, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry.
However, the Commanders found a way to limit Barkley in Week 16 after Jalen Hurts left the game in the first quarter, forcing Kenny Pickett to step in. Over the final three quarters, Barkley managed just 41 rushing yards on 22 attempts. Before Hurts’ injury, Barkley had been averaging over 7.7 yards per carry against Washington.
If Hurts is limited by his left leg injury, the Commanders could focus on loading up against Barkley to contain the Eagles’ rushing attack. By committing additional resources to stop Barkley, they might aim to force Hurts to rely more on his passing game, testing his mobility and effectiveness with the injury.
The Eagles have leaned heavily on Barkley and Hurts’ rushing abilities to generate offense in the playoffs. Through two games, 70.9% of their total yards have come on the ground.
The Commanders will play in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991. Only the Browns, who last appeared in a Conference Championship Game in 1989, endured a longer drought.
Washington went 4-13 (.235) last year, marking the fourth-worst win percentage in the season prior to making a Conference Championship appearance, trailing only the 2017 Jaguars (0.188), 2006 Saints (0.188), and 1967 Oilers (0.214).
The Eagles lost two games in September and have lost one game since — at Washington in Week 16 after Hurts exited early with a concussion. In that loss, Philadelphia became the first team to score 21 points in the first quarter in a losing effort since the 2019 Texans (during the Divisional Round on the road against the Chiefs).
PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Eagles a 61.8% chance of winning this game while the Commanders have 38.2% odds.
Chiefs vs. Bills Game Preview
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kanas City
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Streaming: CBS/Paramount+
In the Super Bowl era, the Bills and Chiefs are the fifth pair of teams to face each other in the playoffs four times within a five-season span. The Chiefs could become the first team to play in the Super Bowl while seeking a Super Bowl three-peat.
The Bills lead the league in turnover margin this season, including the playoffs, at +27. Buffalo has maintained an even or positive turnover margin in 21 consecutive games dating back to last season, tying the 1952-53 Rams for the longest streak since turnovers became an official stat in 1933.
On the other side, the Chiefs have gone eight straight games without a turnover, the longest streak since turnovers became an official stat in 1933.
Josh Allen is one of the league’s best quarterbacks against the blitz. Including the playoffs, he averages the second-highest EPA(Expected Points Added) per dropback (0.30) when blitzed, with 16 passing touchdowns and just two interceptions.
However, the Chiefs excel at blitzing effectively. Including the playoffs, Kansas City blitzes at the ninth-highest rate in the league (30%) and ranks 10th in pressure rate (44%) when sending extra rushers.
The Bills have been one of the league’s best defenses on early downs this season, ranking fifth in EPA per play (0.08) on first and second down. However, their performance drops significantly on third down, where they rank 31st in EPA per play (-0.26) and have allowed the fifth-highest third-down conversion rate (44%).
That’s an ominous sign against a Chiefs offense that thrives on third downs. Kansas City ranks fourth in third down conversion rate (47.9%) and fourth in EPA per play (0.22) on third down. Conversely, they only rank 15th in EPA per play on first and second down (-0.02).
In two playoff games against the Chiefs, Allen has posted QB+ scores of 86.6 (B) in 2021 and 74.8 (C) in 2023. Meanwhile, Mahomes has earned QB+ scores of 86.9 (B) in 2021 and 79.0 (C+) in 2023 in two postseason games against the Bills.
Many fans (and Houston Texans players) were frustrated with the officiating in Kansas City’s Divisional Round win. Since 2018, the Chiefs have received nine roughing-the-passer calls in the playoffs (including the Will Anderson Jr. call on Saturday), while the rest of the NFL combined has totaled 18 such calls, with no other team receiving more than two.
Kansas City has now made seven consecutive Conference Championship appearances — only the New England Patriots had more in a row (eight from 2011-18) in NFL history.
PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Bills a 50.7% chance of winning this game while the Chiefs have 49.3% odds, showing just how close this game should be.
