The NFL head coach firing cycle is already underway. The New York Jets parted ways with Robert Saleh after Week 5, the New Orleans Saints canned Dennis Allen following Week 9, and the Chicago Bears let Matt Eberflus go after a miserable Thanksgiving Day loss.
Saleh, Allen, and Eberflus will not be the only NFL head coaches to lose their jobs this year or on Black Monday, the infamous day after the regular season when decision-makers are fired around the league.
Which other HCs should be worried about their gigs?
2024 NFL Head Coach Hot Seat Rankings
7) Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Is it playoffs or bust for Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel?
Despite falling to 5-7 with a Thanksgiving night loss to the Green Bay Packers, McDaniel’s club still has a 22.9% chance of making the postseason, per Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor. They’ll likely need to win out and receive help from other AFC Wild Card hopefuls. The Bengals’ Week 13 loss helped the Dolphins, but the Colts’ last-second victory hurt.
McDaniel guided Miami to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons in charge, but the Dolphins suffered first-round exits in both years. While McDaniel’s efforts with Miami’s electric offense would get immediate head-coaching looks around the NFL if he were fired, it’s hard to overlook how poor the Dolphins looked when Tua Tagovailoa was on injured reserve with a concussion.
6) Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
The Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff hopes all but ended when they lost to the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13. Zac Taylor’s team is essentially in the same spot as the Dolphins — they need to win out and get even more help than Miami.
Still, even if the Bengals miss the postseason for the second straight season, Taylor seems unlikely to be fired. Team owner Mike Brown employed former head coach Marvin Lewis for 16 years with no playoff wins; Taylor took Cincinnati to the Super Bowl.
“Stick together. Take accountability.”
Zac Taylor’s message to the 4-8 #Bengals as they head to Monday Night Football in Dallas.#Bengals | @WLWT pic.twitter.com/kvKAfRiXl9
— Olivia Ray (@OliviaRayTV) December 1, 2024
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will probably take the fall. After the Bengals gave up 44 points to Pittsburgh on Sunday, Anarumo could be fired by Monday morning.
Offseason staff changes are coming for Cincinnati, but it’s hard to imagine Taylor being fired unless the Bengals truly bottom out over the remainder of the year.
5) Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns (3-8)
On paper, Kevin Stefanski is hardly a candidate to be fired in 2025. He guided the Cleveland Browns to two playoff appearances in his first four seasons, winning the NFL’s Coach of the Year award in both campaigns. Stefanski and Browns GM Andrew Berry just signed extensions with the club in June.
And yet, Stefanski’s accomplishments are threatened to be overshadowed by Cleveland’s disastrous 2022 trade for QB Deshaun Watson, the league’s worst signal-caller before tearing his Achilles last month. Meanwhile, the rest of the Browns’ roster seemingly devolved overnight, leaving a team that’s won just three games entering Monday Night Football.
Will Stefanski be allowed to identify, draft, and develop Cleveland’s next quarterback in 2025? Or will the Browns start fresh in the front office and along the sidelines?
4) Brian Daboll, New York Giants (2-10)
Since unexpectedly posting a 9-7-1 mark in 2022 before knocking off the Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card Round, Brian Daboll’s New York Giants are 8-21. Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen botched their decision on Daniel Jones, who’s already been released, and Saquon Barkley, who’s thriving for the NFC East-rival Philadelphia Eagles.
Still, in October, Giants owner John Mara suggested that Daboll and Schoen were safe.
“Obviously, we’re all very disappointed with where we are right now,” Mara said. “But I’m gonna say one thing: We are not making any changes this season. And I do not anticipate making any changes in the offseason, either.”
Big Blue has lost five straight games since Mara’s comments, but CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones reported in late November that Daboll and Schoen will likely stick around in 2025.
3) Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
One-and-done head coaches are no longer a rarity in the NFL. Since 2011, 12 NFL HCs have been fired either during their first season or shortly thereafter. One first-year head coach has been let go in-season in each of the past three campaigns:
- Urban Meyer, Jacksonville Jaguars (2021)
- Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos (2022)
- Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers (2023)
Among 2024’s rookie head coaches, the Las Vegas Raiders’ Antonio Pierce is the best candidate for either an in-season or Black Monday firing. The Raiders’ 2-10 record is disappointing, but that’s not the only reason Pierce might be on the hot seat.
Pierce might’ve pushed WR Davante Adams out of Las Vegas after he — inadvertently or otherwise — liked an Instagram post that suggested the veteran wideout had played his last snap for the Raiders.
In September, he was forced to apologize after seemingly questioning the effort of some Vegas players, noting they’d made “business decisions” in games. In November, Pierce called the Raiders “the worst team in football” ahead of a Black Friday loss to the Chiefs.
2) Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
Even before the Dallas Cowboys won their fifth game of the year by beating the Giants on Thanksgiving, team owner Jerry Jones suggested that an extension for lame-duck head coach Mike McCarthy wasn’t off the table.
“I don’t think that’s crazy at all,” Jones said on Nov. 26. “Listen, Mike McCarthy is an outstanding coach … This is a Super Bowl-winning coach. Mike McCarthy has been there and done that. He has great ideas.
“Bottom line is that no place in my body language or anything else have you seen indications about what we’re going to be doing relative to this (coaching) staff at the end of this year. And we shouldn’t. We got a lot of football left.”
Jones has maintained he won’t fire McCarthy during the season, but we’re not buying talk of an extension unless Dallas somehow sneaks into the playoffs. (PFN’s model gives Dallas just a 3.8% chance of doing so).
1) Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
The Jacksonville Jaguars seemingly tossed out the idea of firing head coach Doug Pederson if the club was blown out by the Detroit Lions in Week 11. However, Pederson held onto his job when the Jags lost to Detroit by 46 points. A three-point defeat to the Texans in Week 13 might not be enough for team owner Shad Khan to pull the trigger.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who’s already battled myriad injuries and missed time in 2024, was concussed on a dirty hit from Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair on Sunday. Pederson suggested it was too early to say whether Lawrence would play again this season.
With Lawrence injured again and the season down the drain, the Jaguars could simply hang onto Pederson for the rest of the campaign. Former Chargers head coach Mike McCoy is on Jacksonville’s staff as quarterbacks coach and could make sense as an interim option, but what’s the point?
Still, there’s no chance Pederson will return in 2025. Khan’s next task? Selling the Jaguars’ job and the opportunity to work with Lawrence to a hot candidate like Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson or future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick.