The arrival of the 2021 NFL Hall of Fame Game gives us our first chance to analyze odds and make predictions about an NFL game in nearly six months. With two historic teams in the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers going head to head in Canton, Ohio, on August 5, let’s take a look at the odds for the 2021 NFL Hall of Fame Game and make some predictions.
NFL Hall of Fame Game odds and trends
As of July 30, the odds for the NFL Hall of Fame Game have the Steelers as slight favorites over the Cowboys. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Steelers -1. The trend had been a slight shift towards the Cowboys, with the Steelers having been anywhere between a pick and -2 favorites since the game opened. However, things have steadied in recent days.
In terms of the total, the current line at DraftKings is an over/under of 33 points. The odds on the total for the Hall of Fame Game are slightly slanted towards the under at -120 compared to +100 for the over.
What trends do we have from the recent Hall of Fame games?
The recent betting record for the Hall of Fame Game has been reasonably equal. In 2019, the Falcons opened as favorites but would go on to lose. The Ravens opened as favorites in 2018 but failed to cover the spread after being 2.5-point favorites.
In terms of the total, the last two years have seen an average of 28.5 points scored. In 2018, the Ravens and Bears combined for 33 points, which just hit the under. With just 24 points scored in 2019, the under was a safe bet.
Over the past 10 Hall of Fame games, more than 35 points have been scored four times. Only one of those has occurred in the last five games.
2021 NFL Hall of Fame Game predictions
Judging the Hall of Fame Game odds can be extremely tough. While we may see the starters for a brief period, it is unlikely we see them for long. If this was a straight-up game between first-team units, the benefit of the doubt would likely go to the Cowboys.
Still, that is highly unlikely. In 2019, for instance, Matt Ryan did not throw a single pass, and Julio Jones did not catch a pass. What we did see was Drew Lock’s first appearance in a Denver Broncos’ uniform.
In 2018, the Bears did not risk Mitchell Trubisky. Meanwhile, the Ravens gave snaps to both Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III but not to Joe Flacco.
This tells us we are unlikely to see much of Dak Prescott or Ben Roethlisberger — if at all. On the contrary, we’re much more likely to see Cooper Rush, Garrett Gilbert, Ben DiNucci, Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins, and Joshua Dobbs. Reducing the preseason from four to three games makes taking advantage of these extra snaps to look at the back end of the roster even more important.
Which team has more to work out?
This is a somewhat key question when judging and making predictions about the 2021 NFL Hall of Fame Game odds. The Cowboys know a lot of how their offense is going to look. They know their receiving group, the majority of their offensive line, their running back, and their QB. They have no reason to put any of those players out there. Defensively, they may want to work a little more out. But even then, the majority of the main players are known at this point.
In contrast, the Steelers have a lot of work to do — both along the offensive line and defense. Therefore, we could see a lot more of the Steelers’ potential starters taking snaps in this game. They need as many snaps as an offensive line — and in parts of the secondary — as they can possibly get. Thus, we may see Pittsburgh play more first-team players for longer, which could be key when the clock hits 0:00 in Canton. For that reason, look for the Steelers to win the game, while the lack of offense on the Dallas side could mean the under is the play to look at here.
Ben Rolfe is a Senior Managing Editor at Pro Football Network and is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can find him on Twitter @BenRolfePFN.