The NFL season is quickly coming to a close as we start the Conference Championship games today. With four teams left vying for a shot at the Lombardi trophy, let’s take a look at Sunday’s schedule, start times, live stream options, and more.
How to Watch Commanders vs. Eagles
- When: Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- Channel: FOX
Commanders vs. Eagles Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Commanders rank fifth in offensive EPA (expected points added), fourth in success rate, 18th in explosive passing rate, and seventh in explosive rushing rate. With this matchup being between two divisional opponents, we can clearly look at tendencies from both teams to get an idea of how the NFC championship might play out.
Washington spent 49.23% of their plays in a neutral game script situation against Philadelphia in Week 11 and 26.15% in Week 16. Surprisingly, Washington spent 73.85% of their time in a negative game script situation in Week 16 despite winning that game. The main takeaway here is that the Commanders had a negative pass rate over expected in both neutral situations against Philly.
Importantly, Washington went from passing 9.35% below expectation in the first matchup to 7% above expectation in the second matchup when in negative game script situations. Whatever it is that Washington saw on tape, it led to them playing a much more analytically sound game of football.
This is vital for the Commanders’ success. The Commanders are 10-2 this season (including playoffs) when they have a positive pass rate over expectation (PROE). They are 4-3 with a negative PROE. They also average 30.58 points per game in the former 12 games versus 26.57 points per game in the other seven games.
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Furthermore, the Commanders’ win in Week 16 also featured five total turnovers. They only have two other games this season with two or more turnovers and they rank fifth in the league in fewest EPA lost to turnovers this season. The Eagles rank 10th in EPA generated from turnovers defensively, going 4-1 in games where they forced two or more turnovers and 3-2 in games where they force zero turnovers.
The reason the focus of this game is on the Commanders’ offense vs. the Eagles’ defense is because that should be the deciding factor. Barkley and the Philadelphia offensive line dominated both games against the Commanders’ defense, going for 5.6 and 5.2 yards per carry and over 140 rushing yards in both matchups. On top of that, the Eagles as a whole rushed for over 200 yards against Washington both times.
Luckily for the Eagles, they blitz at the second-lowest rate in the league. This should be a valuable lesson learned from Philly, as they were gashed for 14.5 yards per attempt in the very few blitz attempts they had against Daniels this season. As a whole, the Eagles run the 10th-most zone coverage but rank first in man coverage and second in zone coverage so it really shouldn’t matter too much.
The key to this game will be how the Eagles do with a lead and how the Commanders do when trailing. As stated before, the Commanders’ win over the Eagles featured a whopping total of zero plays with a positive game script situation. Even in Week 11, the split was 26.15% negative, 49.23% neutral, and 24.62% positive.
How to Watch Bills vs. Chiefs
- When: Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- Channel: CBS
- Live Stream: Paramount+, NFL+
Bills vs. Chiefs Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Chiefs rank 15th in net EPA (expected points added) from penalties this season in one-score situations. Only looking at the offense, they rank 19th. This is one of many ways you can show that the constant bickering about refs is absolutely ridiculous. It is not based in fact (only in feelings) any of the criticisms claiming the refs favor the Chiefs.
Another broad (and wrong) claim is that the Chiefs always get the calls in high-leverage situations, extending their drives and giving them extra chances. Well, to go above and beyond just one-score games, we can use play-by-play data which gives us access to win probability. The typical neutral game script situation is considered in between 35% and 65% win probability.
The Chiefs rank 10th in net EPA gained in these types of situations. If we change the criteria to just third downs to represent high-leverage situations, they rank 10th in net EPA as well. Lastly, we can look at just the fourth quarters — 10th in that as well. I will also link you to Joseph Hefner if you don’t believe me. Now we can get to the real analysis.
The Chiefs benefitted from great field positioning due to solid special teams and defensive play last week against Houston. Overall, the offense turned in a 62nd percentile performance in EPA and a 29th percentile performance in success rate. Not particularly impressive but good enough to get the job done. Most importantly, the Chiefs were able to largely avoid negative plays.
This season, the Chiefs had the 13th-fewest in EPA lost from sacks and sixth-fewest in EPA lost from turnovers. Being able to avoid negative plays becomes even more important in the playoffs. Since 2000, teams that win the turnover battle win at a 68.4% clip. This number jumps to 82.1% when looking at the favored team winning the turnover margin.
This directly applies to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
They are 5-1 in the playoffs (under Mahomes) with a positive turnover margin and 2-2 with a negative turnover margin. Buffalo’s defense ranks eighth in sack EPA and No. 1 in turnover EPA generated. This will bode well for Buffalo, especially with its offense ranking first in sack EPA and second in turnover EPA.
Allen and the Bills had an unspectacular performance against the Ravens but it was all they needed in a game where Lamar Jackson made uncharacteristic turnovers. Overall, the Bills should look to exploit the Kansas City passing game through big plays. The Chiefs defense ranks 23rd in passes of 20+ yards given up while Buffalo’s offense ranks fifth in generating them.
For Kansas City’s offense, the key will be to mitigate the Buffalo defense when it blitzes and gets pressure. Buffalo goes from seventh to 16th in blitz vs. non-blitz plays and 10th vs. 17th in pressure and non-pressure plays. The Chiefs are surprisingly better under pressure than not (sixth vs. 13th) and relatively equal (13th vs 10th) against the blitz and non-blitz.
