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    NFL Free Agency Preview 2021: Contending, rebuilding, drifting, or tanking?

    2021 NFL Free Agency Preview: AFC South

    Houston Texans

    They think they are: The Almighty’s gift to American society

    Actual status: A smoldering crater

    The Texans’ only job this offseason is to resolve the Deshaun Watson situation, either through a blockbuster trade or an unprecedented battery of interventions, apologies (actual and financial), and football-themed couples therapy.

    They are extremely unlikely to do that job.

    Indianapolis Colts

    They think they are: Contending

    Actual status: Gambling

    The Colts enter free agency with more cap space than any other playoff-caliber team. They could outbid the field for a veteran like Trent Williams or Eric Fisher to solve their left tackle problem now that Anthony Castonzo has retired.

    They could also match offers if they want to lure back incumbents like cornerback Xavier Rhodes or wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. They can do those things and still have some surplus cash to extend guard Quenton Nelson or linebacker Darius Leonard.

    But if Carson Wentz plays like he did last year, nothing they do in the next month will matter because the Colts will stink. And if Wentz plays as he did in 2017, or even 2019, little that the Colts do in the next month will matter (except finding that left tackle) because the Colts will be in the playoff hunt.

    So everything boils down to Wentz, head coach Frank Reich and his staff of former Eagles’ Wentz-whisperers, and what happens in meeting rooms and practice fields during OTAs. For the Colts, free agency is little more than window dressing.

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    They think they are: Rebuilding

    Actual status: Rebuilding

    Every Jaguars rebuild features a Designated Franchise Savior (Gus Bradley, Tom Coughlin), a dubious choice at quarterback (Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert, Nick Foles), and regrettable free-agent spending (Julius Thomas, Laurent Robinson, Malik Jackson, Nick Foles).

    Even a confirmed Urban Meyer skeptic like me must admit that his background is more impressive than his predecessors. It’s hard to envision the Jaguars screwing up Trevor Lawrence. Now, they just need to nail the “don’t be dumb in free agency” portion of their Stage One rebuild.

    The fact that the Jaguars franchise-tagged left tackle Cam Robinson to keep their offensive line intact instead of dumping money on a more prominent name is an encouraging initial sign.

    Tennessee Titans

    They think they are: Contending

    Actual Status: Contending

    The Titans may need to make 2021 an “all-in” year more than any other team. Derrick Henry isn’t going to be Jim Brown 2.0 for much longer, and the window to winning the AFC South is wide open if the Carson Wentz renaissance turns out to be a fantasy.

    The Titans released defensive backs Malcolm Butler and Kenny Vaccaro to clear cap space to purchase an entire pass rush. With Mike Vrabel making the sales pitch, they should be able to sign veteran edge rushers at reasonable prices. If it works, the Titans can rise to the shortlist of contenders. If it fails, they’re doomed to Vikings-like purgatory.

    AFC West

    Denver Broncos

    They think they are: Rebuilding

    Actual Status: Drifting

    The in-house rationalizations in Broncos headquarters go something like this: “Drew Lock looked ready to make a Josh Allen leap at the end of last season!” And “we would have been in the playoff conversation if Von Miller, Courtland Sutton, and others didn’t get hurt!”

    The Broncos’ reality is more like this. Lock is Rocky Mountain Sam Darnold. Miller’s future is cloudy. And their once-mighty defense collapsed during the five years they spent dithering on offense.

    The Broncos have some cap space to burn in NFL free agency. They’ll likely burn it on players just capable enough to take roster spots and playing time from developmental youngsters and keep the Broncos mired around six wins.

    Kansas City Chiefs

    They think they are: Contending

    Actual Status: Contending

    The departures of Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, and Austin Reiter along the offensive line will hurt. But they won’t turn the 2021 Chiefs into the Super Bowl LV version of the Chiefs. Andy Reid will use the draft and free-agent bargain bin to make sure Patrick Mahomes isn’t running for his life next year. But in this 2021 NFL preview, that’s all Reid will be able to accomplish in free agency and the draft.

    The Bills and other teams have a chance to catch up to the Chiefs over the next few weeks — overtaking the Chiefs is easier said than done.

    Los Angeles Chargers

    They think they are: Rebuilding

    Actual Status: Rebuilding

    The Chargers appear to be letting edge rusher Melvin Ingram, tight end Hunter Henry, and other free agents walk. That means that the team is through spinning its wheels the way it did through the end of the Philip Rivers couch-surfing era and plans to commit to a rebuild around Justin Herbert under new head coach Brandon Staley.

    Herbert remains affordable for three more seasons, so the Chargers need to be quick without hurrying. They should attempt some surgical strikes for young, high-impact free agents, but don’t hold your breath. That hasn’t been the organization’s style for years.

    Las Vegas Raiders

    They think they are: Contending

    Actual Status: Drifting

    Head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock don’t have a rebuilding plan any more sophisticated than “let’s go get some players we like, then play football.”

    The Raiders are entering year four of the Gruden era and year three of Almost-A-Wild-Card-Team status, with no end in sight. The Raiders either traded or have no plan to re-sign the bulk of their offensive line, which has been the team’s strength for the last two seasons.

    They’ll use their free cap space to sign players who looked good on Monday Night Football in the mid-2010s, then draft half of Clemson’s defense. When it all falls apart this year, Gruden will blame Derek Carr.

    At least visiting fans should be allowed to travel to Vegas come autumn. That will be fun!

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