2021 NFL Free Agency Preview: NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
They think they are: Drifting
Actual status: Drifting
The Falcons are unique in that they may be the only team in the NFL that realizes it’s just biding time right now. If only they had that realization circa 2018!
Head coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot will go through the motions of rebuilding this offseason. However, the real work begins when the Falcons can affordably move on from Matt Ryan. Until then, the Falcons exist to fill out DFS lineups and not quite clear the “over” every Sunday.
Carolina Panthers
They think they are: Rebuilding
Actual status: Rebuilding
Matt Rhule has one more year before we start asking Dave Gettleman/Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock questions about where the Panthers are going. Rhule appears noncommittal about Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback but is also in no hurry to trade him to a team (Steelers/49ers/Patriots/Washington) who might covet a reliable youngish veteran.
The Panthers have cap space to make moves but didn’t bother extending wide receiver Curtis Samuel or some affordable young role players like running back Mike Davis or defensive back Corn Elder.
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Maybe Rhule will use free agency, trades, and the draft to establish a team identity this year. But there’s also a chance that we will still be talking about temporary solutions next year.
New Orleans Saints
They think they are: Contending
Actual status: Tanking
The Saints spent the last two months extending their mortgage so they can max out their credit cards to free cap space while constantly refreshing Drew Brees’ Instagram page searching for hints that he does not plan to retire.
Had Brees returned, the Saints used the Reality Stone to warp the salary cap and retain enough veteran talent to play the way they did in December and January. (A reminder — they went 4-3 and lost to all of their good opponents, plus the Eagles). With Brees retired, the Saints will be a five-win team if Jameis Winston re-signs and a service-academy football program if they are stuck with Taysom Hill.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They think they are: Contending
Actual status: Contending
Extending Tom Brady’s contract until he’s old enough to play a grandfather on the CW Network to free up money to franchise-tag Chris Godwin and extend Lavonte David and (maybe) Shaquil Barrett’s contracts carries a lot of risk. Still, it makes more sense than what many other NFC teams are doing.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
They think they are: Contending
Actual Status: Maybe rebuilding, maybe tanking
There’s about a 20% chance that J.J. Watt’s arrival pushes the Cardinals over the top as Super Bowl challengers. There’s about a 50% chance that they lose so many starters in free agency (edge rusher Haason Reddick, running back Kenyan Drake, much of the offensive line and secondary) that the team stumbles out of the gate and Kliff Kingsbury starts distributing his résumé to the power conferences.
That leaves a 30% chance that Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Watt, and a surprisingly old roster do their best Houston Texans impersonation and win about nine games through sheer star power.
Los Angeles Rams
They think they are: Contending
Actual status: Drifting
Add a quarterback who won 9-11 games in his best years to a team that’s built to win 10 or 11 games, and you don’t get a 13-win Super Bowl team. You just get a costly 10-11 win team with sky-high expectations. That’s what the Rams are with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. And with little cap space for NFL free agency and no first-round pick, they’re unlikely to get much better.
San Francisco 49ers
They think they are: Contending
Actual Status: Rebuilding
The 49ers are technically “convalescing.” They are hoping Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and a host of others (yes, that includes Jimmy Garoppolo) stay healthy in 2021 so they can return to the Super Bowl. General manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan should contact the Eagles to see how that worked out for them.
The 49ers are now on such a similar trajectory to the 2018-19 Eagles that they should know what could be coming. The 49ers have enough cap space to pursue anything from offensive line reinforcements to veteran help at wide receiver. They could also seek a potential Garoppolo replacement in the draft or through a trade. The key will be to remain aggressive because catching 2019’s lightning in a bottle won’t work.
Seattle Seahawks
They think they are: Contending
Actual Status: Contending. Barely.
Russell Wilson keeps the Seahawks bobbing like a cork near the top of the NFC West, no matter how many mistakes the organization makes at other positions, among the coaching staff, etc. Wilson is getting increasingly grumpy about the situation, while the Seahawks keep cheerfully making mistakes.
Free agency should be a chance for the Seahawks to appease Wilson by upgrading his offensive line. Unfortunately, the market is now loaded with 30-something tight ends, and those are catnip for the Seahawks.
The Seahawks are a team that could be one right move away from the Super Bowl but one error away from plunging into a rebuilding cycle their quarterback wants no part of. To make matters worse, they stopped consistently making “right moves” around 2013.
2021 NFL Free Agency Preview: AFC East
Buffalo Bills
They think they are: Contending
Actual Status: Contending
The Bills may be one player away from winning a Super Bowl. They have enough cap space to sign that one player, whoever he may be. A safety-valve tight end like Hunter Henry or (gasp) Rob Gronkowski for Josh Allen? An extra playmaker to pair with Stefon Diggs? A blocker like Mitchell Schwartz to sure up the offensive line? An extra veteran pass rusher or two looking to play for a contender?
This is Christmas-Eve-meets-wedding-night for the Bills. Enjoy the anticipation, and don’t worry about the potential for disappointment. Yet.
Miami Dolphins
They think they are: Rebuilding
Actual status: Rebuilding
Dolphins fans think they are contending after last year’s 10-6 finish. Head coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier appear more skeptical. That’s an encouraging sign in some ways. For example, releasing edge rusher Kyle Van Noy indicates that the Dolphins weren’t fooled into thinking their defense magically transformed into the 1985 Bears last year.
It’s also a troubling sign whenever the team sends some Debbie Downer message about Tua Tagovailoa instead of gushing about him, whether because they mean it, they want to boost his confidence or simply hope to bait Jack Easterby.
Look for the Dolphins to make few moves in free agency instead of falling into the “one missing piece” trap. The low-risk, probably-no-reward trade for troubled Titans left tackle Isaiah Wilson was a likely example of how they will approach the next month. With high first and second-round picks courtesy of the Texans, the Dolphins can improve significantly through the draft. They should take advantage of that opportunity.
New England Patriots
They think they are: Unknown
Actual Status: Tanking
Twenty years of success may have conditioned Bill Belichick to think he really is some galactic genius. It certainly conditioned fans and analysts to give the Patriots a little too much benefit of the doubt. Re-signing Cam Newton looks more like procrastination than some brilliant chess gambit.
Newton is practically Ryan Fitzpatrick in an ascot these days, yet my Twitter timeline seems to think he’s one good wide receiver away from returning to 2015 form. That’s all well and good, so long as Belichick himself doesn’t think that.
The Patriots are also letting many veterans test free agency — offensive linemen Joe Thuney and David Andrews, cornerback Jason McCourty, running backs James White and Rex Burkhead, and others — despite a lack of apparent replacements in the pipeline at most positions. Perhaps Belichick expects some veterans to re-embrace The Patriots Way if the market is lukewarm.
Maybe he plans to sift for bargain-basement replacements in old-school Patriots fashion. Perhaps he’s quietly planning a 3-13 reboot (though that would have made more sense last year). Or maybe, just maybe, Belichick is like the folks running the Star Wars movies these days. He didn’t have a plan for the big ending and is now reading internet fan theories searching for an idea that makes sense.
New York Jets
They think they are: Rebuilding
Actual status: Rebuilding
OK, Jets, this is simple:
- Leave two voicemails with the Houston Texans about Deshaun Watson. If they do not get back to you (they won’t), move on.
- Trade Sam Darnold before teams like the Steelers or 49ers start coming up with better ideas.
- Take the franchise tag off Marcus Maye and extend him. He’s one of the few veterans of substance on the roster. Giving him a long-term deal would send a positive message.
- Sign one free-agent offensive lineman (not a left tackle) and one of the younger edge rushers (a Romeo Okwara/Haason Reddick type). Make sure both head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas agree about the decision. That should go without saying, but these are the Jets we are talking about. Save any leftover cap space to roll over into 2022.
- Draft either Ohio State’s Justin Fields or BYU’s Zach Wilson, then some receivers and more edge rushers.
- Win about five games in 2021.
- Hold hands, sing campfire songs, keep the rookie confident and healthy, and hope this rebuild is more successful than the last four.
2021 NFL Free Agency Preview: AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
They think they are: Contending
Actual status: Contending
The Ravens are at the tipping point. Either their Lamar Jackson-led, option-fueled offense becomes more versatile and adaptable, or we’ll see more games like the dreary playoff loss to the Bills. Jackson either proves worthy of a nine-figure franchise quarterback contract or raises doubts that he’s destined to be just a scrambling version of Jared Goff or Carson Wentz.
In short, the Ravens either win in their current configuration in 2021 or try something at least a little different in 2022.
The Ravens organization doesn’t believe in “all-in” years, so don’t expect free-agent fireworks. But if there was ever a year to splurge on someone like Curtis Samuel or JuJu Smith-Schuster to turn short tosses into yards after the catch, this is it.
Cincinnati Bengals
They think they are: Rebuilding
Actual status: Comatose
The Bengals are what the Jets would be if no one were paying any attention. They need to surround Joe Burrow with pretty much everything. I am already bored thinking about them. Let’s move on.
Cleveland Browns
They think they are: Rebuilding
Actual status: Rebuilding
Browns fans, like Dolphins fans, can be forgiven for penciling in 50 free-agent arrivals and a dozen Super Bowl victories after finally enjoying a winning season in 2020. Browns management, like Dolphins management, probably knows better. The Browns may be among the best of the rebuilding teams, but they are still hammering in the windows and the vinyl siding.
The Browns’ shrewdest moves this offseason would be to extend the contracts of in-house veterans like guard Wyatt Teller while building a long-term compensation plan for Baker Mayfield. A little judicious spending in the secondary or at wide receiver would be just fine.
But if the Browns splurge on 30-something-year-old, win-now veterans? It’s a sign that they weren’t ready for even modest success. In fairness, it would also be a sign that the Moneyball folks running the organization have been drinking from the lead-lined water fountain.
Pittsburgh Steelers
They think they are: Contending
Actual status: Tanking
“Tanking” may be too strong a word here. The Steelers have too much young talent to fall entirely apart this year. But they are kidding themselves by humoring Ben Roethlisberger for another year.
Think of the Steelers as the post-Peyton Manning Denver Broncos. Great defense, crumbling infrastructure, and the exact opposite of a plan at quarterback. Under the circumstances, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Bud Dupree’s departures over the coming weeks will be a disguised blessing. The Steelers will get compensatory picks in 2022 when they will dearly need all the help they can get.