There are several factors that influence fantasy football production. Talent matters, but situation and opportunity are just as important. As players change teams (or stay put), let’s examine the fantasy football winners and losers from the 2025 free agency period.
Fantasy Football Winners
Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets
After his strong showing last season, it’s no surprise that Justin Fields landed a starting job for 2025. That alone makes him a winner in free agency.
Fields’ fantasy value isn’t tied to his supporting cast as much as his rushing ability. Of course, having Garrett Wilson helps, but Fields is one of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks in the NFL, which is what really matters.
Last season, Fields started six games for the Pittsburgh Steelers and averaged 19 fantasy points per game, including a 32-point overall QB1 performance in Week 4 against the Indianapolis Colts. He also averaged 18.4 points per game in 2023 and 20.5 in 2022.
Every time he’s been a starter, Fields has been a fantasy QB1.
Fields earned a C or C+ rating in PFSN’s QB+ metric in all but one of his 2024 starts. No one is calling Fields an elite NFL quarterback, but for fantasy, he should be viewed as a QB1 this season. However, he likely won’t be drafted that way, making him one of the best late-round QB options in 2025.
Joshua Palmer, WR, Buffalo Bills
A three-year, $36 million deal for a player who was once the Los Angeles Chargers’ WR4 is a solid outcome for Joshua Palmer.
The Buffalo Bills continue to lack depth at receiver. Khalil Shakir is reliable, but he’s not an ideal WR1. Palmer immediately becomes Buffalo’s second-best receiver and the third option in the passing game behind Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.
Palmer’s fantasy stock could drop if the Bills draft a top receiver in the first round, but for now, he’s poised for a starting outside role in one of the NFL’s best offenses.
The Chicago Bears’ Rookie Running Back
The Chicago Bears are expected to draft a running back in the first two rounds. Maybe it’s Ashton Jeanty, or perhaps Omarion Hampton or one of the Ohio State backs. Regardless, D’Andre Swift doesn’t appear locked in as RB1.
Whoever starts at running back for the Bears will be in a great spot. Chicago bolstered its offensive line in free agency, signing two linemen and trading for two more. With Ben Johnson calling plays, this is a backfield fantasy managers should target in 2025 drafts.
Evan Engram, TE, Denver Broncos
The reaction on fantasy Twitter to the Denver Broncos signing Evan Engram may have been over the top, but it’s still a great landing spot.
Bo Nix gives the Broncos a bright future at quarterback. Courtland Sutton remains the WR1, but there’s no clear WR2 and no starting-caliber TE on the roster. Engram has finished as a top-12 tight end in each of the past three seasons and saw a 25.1% target share in 2024. Consider him a low-end TE1 at worst for 2025.
Christian Kirk, WR, Houston Texans
Christian Kirk isn’t getting enough respect. From 2021-2023, he was a solid WR3 at worst in fantasy. Last year, he got off to a slow start and couldn’t stay healthy.
Kirk is still just 28 years old. The Houston Texans’ WR room has thinned out, with Nico Collins being the only established one right now.
Tank Dell is out for 2025 due to a devastating knee injury. Stefon Diggs’ future is uncertain, and even if he returns, he’s over 30 and recovering from a torn ACL.
Kirk should serve as the WR2 and primary slot receiver for C.J. Stroud, making this an underrated role in fantasy.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
We know Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith want to run the ball. The Pittsburgh Steelers were fifth in neutral game script run rate last season.
The biggest problem for Jaylen Warren has always been Najee Harris. Now, Harris is gone and Pittsburgh hasn’t added a replacement.
The Steelers will likely draft a running back, but if they wait until Day 3, Warren could see a true three-down role. Either way, he’s a huge fantasy winner from free agency.
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers isn’t a traditional free agency winner, but the combination of offseason moves has boosted his stock. Bowers broke out as a rookie, finishing as the TE3 overall, averaging 15.5 fantasy points per game — despite catching passes from Gardner Minshew II, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder.
Now, he has Geno Smith, who, while not elite, is a major upgrade. Smith ranks seventh in passer rating when protected since 2022.
Bowers enters 2025 as the best tight end in fantasy and should be drafted in the second round.
Fantasy Football Losers
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers
It might be harsh to call Rico Dowdle a loser, but his situation worsened. He goes from the clear RB1 in Dallas to the RB2 behind Chuba Hubbard in Carolina. After averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game, this is a downgrade in both situation and opportunity.
DK Metcalf and George Pickens, WRs, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s hard to evaluate DK Metcalf and George Pickens without knowing who the Steelers’ QB will be in 2025, but this move isn’t great for either player.
Metcalf steps in as Pittsburgh’s WR1, but the Steelers run the ball at one of the highest rates in the league. His target share should increase, but overall volume may decline. Plus, Metcalf hasn’t been a WR1 in fantasy since 2020. He finished between WR20 and WR24 for three straight seasons before dropping to WR30 last year.
Meanwhile, Pickens commanded a 26.5% target share last year, but that only resulted in 103 targets, 59 catches, 900 yards, and three touchdowns. His fantasy points per game dropped from 2023, and now he has more competition from Metcalf.
Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jalen McMillan looked poised for a breakout WR2 role, but that changed when Chris Godwin re-signed.
From Weeks 14-18 last season, McMillan averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game, but Godwin’s return caps his ceiling. Even with Baker Mayfield playing at an elite level, McMillan is now Tampa’s WR3 at best, which limits his upside.