One of the toughest challenges of 2020 NFL free agency will be correctly making predictions about which boom-bust wide receivers have the best chance of enjoying consistent success. Robby Anderson, Breshad Perriman and Demarcus Robinson each fit the boom-bust category. They have the potential to produce game-changing performances but have not done so regularly enough during their respective careers.
All three are set to hit free agency when the new league year begins. With the draft class stacked with talent at wide receiver, they may find their market depressed. However, the trio has demonstrated enough flashes of brilliance to have suitors who will hope to coax sustained production out of them.
There is no doubting Anderson, Perriman, and Robinson each can deliver on a weekly basis. But which of the three is most likely to have the most significant influence on their prospective new team’s offense.
Their respective 2019 Pro Football Network Offensive Share Metric (OSM) grades provided an answer to that question.
Breshad Perriman
Perriman enjoyed the most productive season of what has so far been a very disappointing career for the former first-round pick. He finished 2019 with 36 catches for 645 yards and six touchdowns, all career highs, but 349 yards and four touchdowns came in the final three games of the year as Perriman went on a tear.
The former Baltimore Raven and Cleveland Brown excelled down the stretch mainly through a physical approach to his route-running, which enabled him to succeed against aggressive coverage.
That was the case on his final touchdown of a three-score game against the Detroit Lions in Week 15, with Perriman swatting away the jam from Tracy Walker and intelligently using his hands to create separation before tracking the ball over his shoulder for a 25-yard catch.
Having profited from a mismatch with Walker on that touchdown, Perriman thrived the following week against Gareon Conley, gaining 27 yards on this pass from Jameis Winston using much the same approach. Perriman cleverly uses his left hand to maintain space between him and Conley and then attacks the ball to make a leaping catch over the cornerback.
While not widely regarded for his short-area quickness, Perriman displayed fluid change-of-direction skills later in the defeat to the Texans, using them to gain 13 yards on a short throw from Winston.
Though Perriman’s finish to the campaign provided plenty of reasons for encouragement, his OSM score was the lowest of three. OSM uses the NFL’s NextGen Stats and a series of algorithms to measure a player’s contribution to his offense by looking at the factors only he could control. Following his late surge, Perriman earned an overall grade of 27.15, indicating a good level of performance, but adrift of the scores Anderson and Robinson received.
Robby Anderson
Anderson completed his 2019 season with 52 catches for 779 yards and five touchdowns. Though he was the Jets’ undisputed top receiver, Anderson failed to top 800 yards for the third time in his four seasons in the NFL.
He ended the year with an OSM grade of 27.39, slightly above that of Perriman, and only good enough for him to rank 88th of 93 qualifying receivers.
Yet there is a basis for hope that he can be a more influential weapon for an offense that uses him as a complementary receiver rather than as a primary option in the passing attack. Anderson’s deep speed makes him an ideal field-stretching receiver, and, with his route-running chops, he can be a nightmare for opposing defenses to deal with when he is on his game.
Anderson’s abilities undid the Dallas Cowboys as a downfield playmaker in their Week 6 meeting with the New York Jets. Anderson burnt Chidobe Awuzie with a perfectly executed double move for a 92-yard touchdown.
Though Anderson may be best-known beating defenders deep, he can fight through contact and make moves with the ball in his hands after the catch, doing so on this 31-yard gain from the Jets’ Week 12 victory over the Oakland Raiders.
Despite failing to live up to expectations the last couple of years in New York, Anderson will still be aiming to cash in significantly on the open market. Yet, when teams compare his production to what Robinson has done as the third or fourth option with the Kansas City Chiefs, his prospects of achieving that goal may take a hit.
Demarcus Robinson
Unsurprisingly given the depth of talent on the Chiefs offense, Robinson was a relative afterthought in terms of targets. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce predictably served as the two focal points of the passing game, and Robinson ended the year with 32 receptions for 449 yards and four touchdowns.
Robinson, though, easily outranked Anderson and Perriman in terms of OSM. He earned a score of 31.68, indicating a ‘very good’ level of performance.
That final grade was aided by his display in Week 2 when Robinson was given his second-highest OSM score of the season. Robinson’s six-catch performance, in which he racked up 172 yards and scored two touchdowns, was enough for an elite grade of 42. Only in the Week 10 loss to the Titans (45.61) did he have a more significant impact on the offense.
His display versus the Raiders is especially significant as it came during a period when Hill was out with an injury. Robinson filled the void and then some, helping the Chiefs to triumph as his speed, route-running, and skills at the catch point all came to the fore.
Robinson diced up the Raiders’ secondary, with his 43-yard reception in the second quarter encapsulating the big-play threat he carries. His ability to accelerate quickly and adapt his route to the flight of the ball were both key to the play. Still, Robinson also emulated Perriman and Robinson in utilizing his arms to engineer separation from the defender on the post route.
However, Robinson’s most impressive play of that game and arguably the entire season came on his second touchdown against the Raiders. Robinson executed a stop-start move to gain outside leverage and adjusted magnificently to an underthrown ball to haul in a 39-yard throw for a score.
Investing a boom-bust wide receiver carries inherent risk but, even though his numbers were the least impressive, it is Robinson who presents the safest bet.
Robinson ranked 90th of 93 qualifiers at the position and lacks the downfield speed of Anderson or Perriman. Working as the primary target in an offense led by an exciting young quarterback in Sam Darnold, Anderson failed to have as much of an influence on his offense as much as Robinson – buried on the depth chart by comparison – did on that of the Chiefs.
Robinson, of course, had the advantage of playing with arguably the premier quarterback in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes. Still, the impact he was able to have while playing a secondary role to Hill and Kelce was admirable, and he deserves the chance to prove he can rise to the challenge when given prominence in a passing attack.
It is challenging to evaluate boom-bust receivers, but the available evidence suggests that, of this free-agent triumvirate, it is Robinson who is most likely to help an offense take off.