The NFL Franchise Tag window is now open, and teams have two weeks to decide which players they want to apply either the Franchise Tag or the Transition Tag. Tagging a player during this window ensures that teams retain some level of control over said player in the upcoming free agent period.
Being franchise-tagged frustrates players as it limits their ability to negotiate a long-term deal in the upcoming offseason. Unless a player is given an exclusive franchise tag, they can still negotiate with other teams, but any team wanting to sign them would have to part with two first-round picks to complete the deal. Outside of the very best quarterbacks, that is a price most teams are unwilling to pay for a free agent.
Let’s examine which players could be considered franchise tag candidates and assess their likelihood of getting either tag this offseason.
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings
- Tag Value: $41.3 million
The situation with Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings is intriguing this offseason. Darnold was initially meant to be a one-year fill-in after J.J. McCarthy got hurt. However, he finished the year ranked 12th in PFSN’s QB+ metric as he helped lead the Vikings to a 14-3 record and almost to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
There is a wide range of thoughts about Darnold’s projected contract. Some projections have him getting a four-year $40 million deal. If that is the case, then a one-year deal worth $41.3 million makes some sense for the Vikings (albeit a little restrictive from a cap point of view). Other projections have Darnold getting closer to the $33.3 million that Baker Mayfield got in Tampa Bay.
Letting Darnold walk immediately adds more pressure to McCarthy’s shoulders. Not only was he a first-round pick, but now he is the player they chose over the guy who led them to 14-3. Keeping Darnold in Minnesota makes for a tricky situation with a highly paid veteran against the young quarterback and adds extra pressure to both quarterbacks.
There is the potential that the Vikings could pursue a tag-and-trade strategy. They likely won’t ask for the two first-round picks that come with the franchise tag, but they could get back something of value for him. The risk is that it destroys the relationship between the team and the player, and they get stuck with a $41.3 million cap hit on a backup who does not want to be there.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
- Tag Value: $26.2 million
We have already heard that the Cincinnati Bengals intend to franchise tag Tee Higgins for the second straight year, albeit not officially from the team itself. Higgins’ value if he is franchise-tagged will be slightly higher than a receiver getting the tag for the first time ($25.6 million), but the cost is not prohibitive.
When you also consider that Higgins is likely to be looking for a deal in the range of $25-30 million a year over a four or five-year deal, the cost of this franchise tag suddenly does not seem that bad at all. The problem for Higgins regarding a long-term deal is that he has missed 10 games in the last two seasons, making it hard for the Bengals to commit to a number Higgins would be looking for over a long period of time.
This situation is a messy one for the Bengals. They do not want to lose Higgins, but they are not ready to commit to him long-term when they also have Ja’Marr Chase to pay either this offseason or next. The Bengals may be willing to listen to trade offers for Higgins after the trade to ensure they get something of value in return, but that is also a messy situation to navigate.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tag Value: ~$39.6 million
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chris Godwin have done this dance before. Tampa Bay franchise tagged Godwin in 2021 and 2022 before coming to an agreement on an extension. However, that means if they want to use the franchise tag again, they would have to pay him 144% of his 2024 salary.
Depending on the calculations used, that means Godwin’s cap number in 2025 could be close to $40 million, the highest at the position. While the Buccaneers would love to keep Godwin, that is an extraordinary price to pay, especially for a team that is not in a great position regarding their salary cap.
For that reason, Godwin is not a viable franchise tag candidate. Talent-wise, he absolutely is, but the potential value of the tag makes it a non-starter for Tampa Bay. It sounds like both sides are interested in an extension, but getting to a final number that works for both could be tricky.
Ronnie Stanley, OT, Baltimore Ravens
- Tag Value: $25.1 million
The Baltimore Ravens would love to keep Ronnie Stanley on their roster and they very well may do with an extension. At his best, $25 million would be a good value for a left tackle who has been considered amongst the best in the league at his peak. At the same time, it seems like a lot for a player who played a full season for the first time in his career last year at age 30.
Stanley is still a very good tackle and is a crucial part of the Ravens’ offensive line. Given how close this team is to making a Super Bowl, they would love to have continuity at that important left tackle spot next year. If the Ravens had $100 million in cap space, franchise-tagging Stanley would be a fairly easy call. However, that is a tougher decision when you have $9 million in cap space as things stand.
Alaric Jackson, OT, Los Angeles Rams
- Tag Value: $25.1 million
Alaric Jackson is one of the better long-term left tackle options in this year’s free agency class. At 26 years old, he has the potential to be a fixture at the position for the next decade, which is an extremely valuable commodity to have in the NFL. Therefore, he is a player that the Rams would love to bring back for continuity, but the franchise tag price might be somewhat steep.
Jackson’s projected contract is around $15-20 million a year, which is significantly lower than the $25.1 million on the franchise tag. The Rams have around $40 million in cap space, so they could theoretically use the franchise tag on Jackson, hoping to sign him to a long-term deal with a lower cap number in 2025.
The problem with giving Jackson the franchise tag is that it will hamstring the Rams from improving their roster in other areas. With all the uncertainty swirling around Matt Stafford’s future, committing $25 million for one year to a left tackle when you don’t know what your offense will look like is far from ideal.
Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs
- Tag Value: $25.1 million
The frailties of the Kansas City Chiefs line were exposed in Super Bowl 59, but it was not the interior that was the issue, but rather the left tackle position that proved to be their undoing. Trey Smith was a solid presence at guard, working well with Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey on the interior and combining well with Jawaan Taylor on the right-hand side of the line.
Kansas City would love to bring Smith back and keep that core of their line intact, but the finances just do not add up. A value of $25.1 million would make Smith the highest-paid guard in the league in terms of average annual value. Additionally, the Chiefs currently have less than $10 million in cap space for 2025, and while they will open more, committing $25 million of that to Smith leaves them hamstrung elsewhere.
Smith will likely cost around $20 million a year on an extension, but there is more flexibility in how the cap hit is spread. On the franchise tag, all of that would impact the cap in 2025 unless they subsequently come to an agreement on an extension.
Osa Odighizuwa, DT, Dallas Cowboys
- Tag Value: $23.5 million
Osa Odighizuwa, like any big man on the defensive line, is a tough player to value. Their impact on a game is not always felt on the stats sheet, making it a tough position to evaluate. A career high of 4.5 sacks and 47 tackles does not sound like a lot, but it is all relative to his position.
Odighizuwa’s valuations vary widely. Some see him as a potential candidate to earn over $20 million a year, and others have that value closer to or below the $15 million a year mark. Undoubtedly, he is a disruptive force on the interior of the line for the Cowboys, but his impact as either a pass rusher or a tackler on a per-snap basis is not as high as Teair Tart and Jarran Reed.
The value for the Cowboys with Odighizuwa is in the snaps he can play. He has not missed a game since his rookie season and played 78% of the snaps last season. The counter to that is that with that much time on the field, those stats should be even better than they are.
A value of $23.5 million for 2025 would see Odighizuwa tied for seventh with Jeffrey Simmons among defensive tackles. For as good as he is, Odighizuwa is not at that level, making the franchise tag too much for the Cowboys to spend, especially given they currently have negative cap space for next season.
Zack Baun, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
- Tag Value: $27.1 million
The story of Zack Baun is a wonderful one. In one year, he went from a special teams player to one of the lynchpins of a Super Bowl-winning defense. He racked up 151 tackles, 3.5 sacks, five forced fumbles, and an interception in the regular season alone, and is someone the Eagles would love to have back in 2025.
The problem from a franchise tag perspective is that the tag’s value is out of sync with the off-the-ball linebacker position. Baun is technically referred to as an outside linebacker in many places, but that then puts him in with pass rushers, while his role is closer to that of a traditional inside linebacker.
The highest-paid inside linebacker in the NFL is Roquan Smith, who earns $20 million. Only one other traditional off-the-ball linebacker earns over $15 million, Tremaine Edmunds. Baun can potentially earn a contract in that region this offseason, but that is far from the $27.1 million value the franchise tag carries.
While the collective bargaining agreement treats all linebackers equally, the inside linebacker position will continue to be one that rarely sees the tag.
D.J. Reed, CB, New York Jets
- Tag Value: $20.4 million
D.J. Reed is another interesting case regarding the franchise tag this offseason. Combined with Sauce Gardner, he makes for one of the best pairs of cornerbacks in the entire league. Traditionally, we think of the tag being used on No. 1 cornerbacks, which Reed is not considered to be, but as a method to keep him and Gardner together, it is an intriguing option for the New York Jets.
As a free agent, Reed will likely earn in the region of $15 million a year. Ideally, the Jets would re-sign him at that value on a contract where they can spread the cap hits out over four or five seasons. To pay Gardner $20 million for the year would be alot, especially with cap space limited and the potential for a lot of dead money when the Jets and Aaron Rodgers part ways.
Ultimately, finances will make it a non-starter, but letting Reed leave is a risk for the Jets, given the attention that the No. 2 cornerback spot sees lining up opposite Gardner.
Jevon Holland, S, Miami Dolphins
- Tag Value: $19.6 million
Jevon Holland is getting a lot of buzz as a potential franchise tag candidate in Miami. Holland is a tough player to evaluate because his numbers have fallen off over the past two seasons. He was viewed as the next up-and-coming safety after his second year, in which he had 96 tackles, two interceptions, and seven passes defensed.
However, in the two years since then, Holland has 136 tackles, one interception, and eight passes defensed while also missing seven games. The four forced fumbles are a testament to his hard-hitting, and the coverage numbers have improved in terms of passer rating, completion rate, and yards allowed.
Holland is far from a bad player, but he is closer to a league-average safety than a franchise tag candidate. The franchise tag number would put him as the second-highest-paid player at the position in terms of AAV.
That is very rich for a player who ranks 13th at the position in terms of free agents and did not make it inside our top 100 players at the position. If you were assured of getting that player from 2022, then you would certainly consider him, but the last two years have proven that is far from a certainty.
