The 2024 New England Patriots saved their worst for last.
OK, Saturday’s brutal 40-7 beatdown at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers wasn’t their last game of the year — the Pats still have to slog through a Week 18 rumble with the Buffalo Bills — but their frustrated fan base wants to put the ’24 season in the rearview mirror now.
One thing we’re certain Pats Nation doesn’t want is for Jerod Mayo to keep his gig.
Rookie Jitters: Drake Maye and Jerod Mayo Pair off to a Slow Start
With a 3-13 record and a defense that allows an average of 25.1 points per game following the Week 17 loss, the head coach’s maiden season has been a bust.
Granted, Mayo’s offense is led by a rookie quarterback (Drake Maye), New England has been dealing with a crowded injury report, and his wide receivers room (DeMario Douglas and a cast of thousands) is less-than-good.
But he has to shoulder some of the blame. Or, according to Patriots Twitter, most of the blame.
Bring in the Best
In proud Massachusetts fashion, New England fans have teed off on Mayo big-time, calling for his ouster in no uncertain terms:
Fire every coach tomorrow and start from scratch
— Kevin Conley (@CashCon11) December 28, 2024
Jerod Mayo is the worst head coach in the NFL and in Patriots’ history. Prove me wrong…
— VindogUnleashed (@Vindog56) December 28, 2024
Briefly, a "Fire Mayo" chant broke out at Gillette Stadium with the Patriots down 37-7.
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) December 28, 2024
Pro Football Network’s very own Matt Cannata — a polite Dolphins guy — has an actual suggestion on how to fix Miami’s divisional rivals:
Robert Kraft would be foolish to try and hope that Jerod Mayo will turn into a head coach who will get them to the Super Bowl.
If I were him, I'd hire Mike Vrabel immediately and bring him back to Foxborough.
— Matt Cannata (@CannataPFN) December 28, 2024
See? Polite. No way a Pats pundit offers useful advice to the Fins.
Maybe Pats’ owner Robert Kraft should dial up Bill Belichick. Who knows, it’s possible that “Bad News Billy” hasn’t yet signed his UNC contract …
Mayo’s Defense Ranked 30th in the NFL in PFN’s Defense+ Metric
Pro Football Network’s defense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, sack percentage, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass.
These are then weighted accordingly to produce our rankings for each season.
Of all the elements of Mayo’s start as head coach, the decline in New England’s defense will be the most concerning. Having been a top-10 defense in each of the last three years, this year’s demise is a major concern.
New England needed a solid defense to support its rebuilding offense, and that hasn’t been the case. Even with Josh Allen handicapped by a numb throwing hand, the Patriots couldn’t stop the run and recorded another below-average overall grade (70.8).
For the season, New England’s defense ranks 24th in EPA per rush (0.01). Overall, the Patriots have ranked 20th or worse in 10 out of 15 games this year. They’ll be massive underdogs with a pair of home games left against the Chargers and Bills, cementing this unit in the bottom five when the season ends.
Where does PFN Rank the Patriots’ Offense?
Pro Football Network’s Week 16 offense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass. These are then weighted accordingly to produce our rankings for each season.
The Patriots are a unique case. Their 2024 numbers are a hot mess (28th in EPA per play and yards per play), but the willingness to admit as much and commit this season to developing Drake Maye is something that this fan base can get excited about.
The rookie has taken his lumps thus far, but he’s also shown promise by way of his athleticism and processing speed. Maye is far from a finished product, and there will likely be more downs than ups over the final stretch. But New England is making it clear that it’s willing to lose the battle of 2024 in the hope of winning the war of the next handful of seasons.
Of the teams toward the bottom quarter of our rankings, this is the one with the most upward mobility over the next 12 months. Given that winning big in 2024 was never in the cards for the Patriots, that trajectory makes this season a success.
Overall, the Patriots’ offense ranks 27th in the PFN Offense+ Metric with a D grade.
How Has Mayo Done Developing Drake Maye?
Here at Pro Football Network, we have created our own Quarterback+ (QB+) metric, which weighs statistics we value highly and then uses them to evaluate a quarterback across the current season.
We’re molding stats that include success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production. The added wrinkle in this PFN Insight is quantifying “clutch.”
Defining “clutch” performance is an imperfect science. In this case, we’ve used timeliness-based stats to account for score and situation.
And when we talk about Maye, PFN ranks him 18th with a C grade (76.6 score).
Week 16 saw Maye further demonstrate that the Patriots have found a good thing with his best performance of the season in terms of QB+. Maye was exceptional on third downs, converting 70% of them, which is a far cry from his 32.2% conversion rate entering the week.
He was also relatively good when pressured, finishing with a -0.11 EPA/DB while posting a 7.0 nYPA. All of these little improvements are promising to see for Maye, who has one of the worst supporting casts in the entire NFL when you consider his weapons and offensive line.
Whenever you watch Maye or look at his statistics, you wonder what he will look like with a better cast around him on the field. His numbers on the season have been fine, with a 0.05 EPA/DB ranking 17th. His 6.3 nYPA and 36.1% third-down rate leave a lot to be improved upon, but there is a solid foundation here.
In Week 17 against the Chargers, Maye finished with a C- grade, which translates to a 71.0 score.
