NFL Draft rumors are like the weather in Chicago — if you don’t like what you’re getting, wait a minute.
“League sources” become professional liars as the April showers fall. But we actually think there’s some truth about what has been reported about how the draft might fall after Bryce Young goes No. 1 (which is the overwhelming consensus).
And there is a very plausible scenario in which the Indianapolis Colts get their highest-rated quarterback — simply by staying pat at No. 4 and letting the draft come to them.
NFL Draft Rumors: The Indianapolis Colts’ Ideal Round 1
To be sure, there’s big-time mystery and suspense beyond the first pick.
And Colts owner Jim Irsay leaned into the chaos Sunday when he tweeted the following:
“For the ’23 draft, we have many options. With the #4 pick, we could stay put and take a QB — or trade up and take a QB — OR trade down and MAYBE take a QB — Or NOT. All options on the table, but we like our position and are very excited. Fire up!”
Clear as mud, right? But despite Irsay’s best efforts to confuse, the Colts’ path is pretty straightforward.
Here are facts beyond dispute:
- The Colts want and need a franchise quarterback. The three currently on their roster — Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew, and Sam Ehlinger — are fine Band-Aids but not long-term answers.
- The Colts, like every other team with a high first-round pick, had the opportunity to beat the Carolina Panthers out for the No. 1 pick. They did not, suggesting that they either don’t love this group of quarterbacks or don’t see a significant difference between any of the top four (Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis).
- The Colts pick fourth behind the Panthers (who will draft a quarterback, almost certainly Young), the Houston Texans (who need a quarterback but might not take one at No. 2), and the Cardinals (who have their QB1 and surely would consider trading out if the right deal presents itself).
MORE: FREE Mock Draft Simulator With Trades
The Texans have made noises as of late that they’re actually not all that interested in taking a quarterback if the one they love isn’t available at No. 2.
And like the Colts, they could have been the team that made the best trade offer to the Bears and moved up to No. 1. They did not — a sign that they don’t see a home-run prospect in this draft.
“We’ve received some calls actually on the No. 2 pick,” Texans GM Nick Caserio said this week. “I think our job and responsibility is to listen in and not rule anything out.”
“We’ll be prepared to go either way,” Caserio said. “So if you want to quote me or are we open for business, I’d say we’re open to listening. So if you want to change the vocabulary this year a little bit, but we have received a few calls and I think our responsibility is to listen, to try to take the information in and just make the right decision.”
It should be said that the prevailing belief is the Texans don’t trade out and take Stroud second overall. That’s the consensus pick, per NFL Mock Draft Database.
But what if they don’t? What if they take Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. at No. 2, and then the Cardinals can’t find a suitable offer at No. 3? They have plenty of needs (including cornerback and EDGE defender) and a premium draft pick with which to address them.
MORE: Comparing the 2018-2021 QB Classes to 2023
So it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Cardinals decide to stay put and go best player available (Georgia’s Jalen Carter is the No. 2 player on PFN’s consensus big board).
Carter, cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez (Oregon) and Devon Witherspoon (Illinois), and Clemson pass rusher Myles Murphy all make sense for the Cardinals. Do they make sense at No. 3? Perhaps, if Arizona receives no great offers.
And if that’s how the draft plays out — Young, Anderson, then Carter/Gonzalez/Witherspoon/Murphy at No. 3 — the Colts would have their pick of every quarterback not named Bryce Young, and it wouldn’t have cost them a thing.
What isn’t known: How aggressively teams drafting behind the Colts are going to try to move up.
The Texans and Cardinals would be foolish not to spend the next week engaging in big-time gamesmanship. Perhaps they can convince the Colts that the Seahawks, Lions, or Falcons are going to jump them for a QB.
But if the Colts trust their intel and show some nerve, they could win the draft by doing absolutely nothing.