The Houston Texans have several needs, and with five scheduled selections before the end of Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft, general manager Nick Caserio should be able to find talented players to fill roster holes. But there’s a chance the Texans could trade back from No. 2 overall and acquire even more draft capital to augment their rebuilding roster.
Houston Texans Fielding Calls for No. 2 Overall Pick
Speaking to the media on Monday, Caserio admitted that he’s received calls from other teams interested in the second pick in the draft. While Houston’s GM didn’t reveal too much about the club’s thinking, he did indicate that the Texans are amenable to offers.
“Are we open for business?” Caserio said. “We’re open to listening.”
The No. 2 selection hasn’t been traded in a draft since 2017, when the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears swapped the second and third overall picks. Chicago gave San Francisco the third pick, a third-rounder (No. 67), a fourth-rounder (No. 111), and a 2018 third-round choice to move up one spot and draft Mitchell Trubisky.
The second pick in the draft has only been traded one other time over the past decade. In 2016, the Cleveland Browns traded No. 2 and a conditional fifth-round selection to the Philadelphia Eagles for a first-rounder (No. 8), a third-rounder (No. 77), a fourth-rounder (No. 100), a 2017 first-round pick, and a 2018 second-round pick. The Eagles used their new choice on Carson Wentz.
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In 2012, Washington made a move up the board to draft Robert Griffin III by acquiring the No. 2 pick from the St. Louis Rams. Washington sacrificed its 2012 first-round (No. 6) and second-round (No. 39) choices, plus first-round selections in 2013 and 2014.
Based on draft trade history, the Texans should be able to land a haul — depending on how far they’re willing to move back and how many teams are enticed to move up. Given that four quarterbacks — Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis — could come off the board within the top-10 picks, there should be a market for Houston’s No. 2 pick.
However, the Texans could face a potential problem. Two of the teams with the most pressing motivation to trade up — the Indianapolis Colts (No. 4) and the Tennessee Titans (No. 11) — reside in the same division as Houston. Caserio and Co. might not want to give their AFC South rivals the chance at landing a franchise QB, even if those clubs would be hampered by trading future draft capital.
If a team like the Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7) wants to guarantee itself a top-two quarterback on its board, it could be prompted to trade up to No. 2. But if the Raiders are comfortable with at least three signal-callers in this year’s class, a move up to No. 3 — held by the Arizona Cardinals — would be cheaper.
The Texans’ Draft Capital Gives Them Options
Earlier this month, NBC Sports’ Peter King floated the idea of the Texans drafting a defender like Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. with the second pick before trying to find a quarterback later.
“It’s a stretch, but I could see Nick taking Anderson, then using his second [first-round pick] and trading back up to get his quarterback,” a personnel executive told King.
King is among the most plugged-in reporters in NFL media, so he wouldn’t have put this concept into the ether if it didn’t have at least some merit. But King’s personnel source probably said it best — it’s a stretch.
Let’s game this out. Suppose the Texans grab Anderson at second overall, then trade up to, say, No. 6 to pick Levis. Houston would likely need to give the Detroit Lions at least its second-round pick (No. 33) to get from 12th to sixth.
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What represents a better situation for the Texans? Anderson, Levis, and no pick at the top of the second round? Or staying put and drafting Stroud, someone like edge rusher Tyree Wilson at No. 12, and a pass catcher like Zay Flowers at No. 33?
To me, the second option is clearly preferable. As much time as teams, analysts, and fans put into the NFL Draft, no one truly knows how these prospects will turn out. Taking more bites at the apple is always the better solution. The concept of Houston passing on a quarterback at No. 2 only to sacrifice more capital to move back up seems a galaxy-brained way of getting a similar outcome while giving up more assets than required.
Additionally, if the Texans draft a defensive player second or trade back outside the top-four picks, there’s a decent chance they won’t have a quarterback available to them in the middle part of Round 1.
There is a world where Young, Stroud, Richardson, and Levis go first, second, third, and fourth. Can Houston really afford to bypass a quarterback in a draft with four legitimate options near the top of the board?
Nick Caserio Says He Isn’t Going Anywhere
For what it’s worth, Caserio seems to be in the Texans’ plans for the long term. Although recent reports had suggested Caserio could be fired after the draft, he indicated today that he’s not going anywhere.
“Quite frankly, I’m almost embarrassed I have to,” Caserio said. “I feel sort of like Leonardo DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street. I’m not leaving. There’s never really been any substantive discussions of the sort.”
The idea that Houston could part ways with Caserio wasn’t all that surprising. Teams often fire general managers or scouting staff after the draft, and Caserio’s tenure with the Texans hasn’t had any sort of definitive direction. He’s hired three head coaches in three offseasons, and Houston has gone 7-26-1 during his tenure.
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With DeMeco Ryans taking over as the Texans’ head coach, it wouldn’t have been a shock for Houston to part ways with Caserio and start fresh in the front office. Indeed, Michael Silver of the San Francisco Chronicle suggested that 49ers assistant general manager Adam Peters — who worked with Ryans in San Fran — could be targeted to replace Caserio.
Even if Caserio sticks around, Ryans will likely have significant input over the Texans’ personnel moves going forward, beginning with the 2023 draft. Ryans was courted by every team with a head coaching vacancy this offseason. He wouldn’t have signed a six-year deal with a club that needed as much work as the Texans if he also didn’t receive some level of personnel control.