It’s never too early to start looking forward to the 2024 NFL Draft, especially if you’re a fan of the Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, or New England Patriots. If you’re a Carolina Panthers fan, there’s always free agency.
Ever since the Los Angeles Rams picked Desjuan Johnson with the very last pick in 2023, our scouting team has been churning out 2024 NFL Draft content on a daily basis. But now, it’s time to start looking at the NFL Draft odds, and specifically, for the first pick overall.
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2024 NFL Draft Odds: First Pick Overall
Four of the last five players to be drafted with the first pick overall have been quarterbacks, and it doesn’t look like 2024 will be an exception. The two betting favorites to be drafted with the No. 1 pick at DraftKings Sportsbook are USC QB Caleb Williams (-450) and North Carolina QB Drake Maye (+400).
Many people consider Williams to be a generational QB. He’s even been compared to Patrick Mahomes, so it’s no surprise to see him as the odds-on favorite to go first overall.
Although USC is on a two-game losing streak in which Williams has played poorly, especially for his standards, last year’s Heisman Trophy winner is still having a terrific season, with 2,277 passing yards and 30 touchdowns in eight games.
As talented as Williams is, however, Maye isn’t far behind. Although he might not be as flashy as Williams, Maye has all the tools teams are looking for in a franchise quarterback, with ideal size, mobility, and arm talent.
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While Williams might be the heavy-betting favorite, Maye absolutely has a chance to be the first pick overall.
“Williams’ chances of going No. 1 overall have always been somewhat out of control because he and Maye play drastically styles of football,” said Ian Valentino, PFN’s Director of Scouting.
“Simply based on the fact that we can’t predict what the coaching staff will want out of their franchise QB, Maye is very much alive in the No. 1 overall race. Both Williams and Maye have had their ups and downs this season, so stylistic preference may be the determining factor.”
Not only does Valentino feel that this race is closer than the betting odds indicate, but PFN’s Ian Cummings actually has Maye going first overall to the Chicago Bears in his most recent mock draft. Cummings notes that although Maye might be less of a creator than Williams, he’s still an impressive off-platform thrower who has the edge as a pocket passer and playing within structure.
While the oddsmakers are convinced that Williams will be the first overall pick, PFN’s scouting team thinks there could be some value in Maye’s NFL Draft odds to be No. 1 overall. Considering we’re six months away from finding out, expect this market to fluctuate a lot until then.