The 2023 NFL Draft is nearly here. With just days until the event begins, NFL Draft news and rumors are on the tip of every reporter’s tongue. But it’s difficult to know what to trust, especially as some teams try to employ smoke screens and cloud the rumor mill in advance of the draft.
Let’s run through the top rumors surrounding this year’s draft and attempt to separate fact from fiction. Who’s telling the truth, and who’s engaged in lying season?
NFL Draft News and Rumors
The Houston Texans might pass on a quarterback. The Seattle Seahawks could find Geno Smith’s successor. And where will Jalen Carter land?
Could the Texans Pass on a Quarterback at No. 2?
The drumbeat around the concept of the Texans passing on a quarterback with the second overall pick continues to get louder.
In his first mock draft for Pro Football Network, Adam Caplan suggested Houston could go with Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson. NBC Sports’ Peter King also recently reported that the Texans might eschew a signal-caller for a defensive player like Wilson or Will Anderson Jr.
Once it became clear that the Panthers will draft Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall selection, it looked apparent that Houston would target Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. But Stroud’s draft stock has slipped in recent weeks, to the point that Kentucky QB Will Levis is now the betting favorite to go No. 2.
MORE: FREE NFL Mock Draft Simulator (With Trades)
If Houston passes on a QB near the top of the draft, they could still have the option to grab a passer later in Round 1. The Texans own the No. 12 pick in addition to No. 2, and they have enough draft capital to make a move up the board and back into the top 10. It would take some luck and some maneuvering on general manager Nick Caserio’s part, but Houston could theoretically land a premier defensive player before finding a quarterback a few picks later.
This reporting on the Texans no longer feels like a smoke screen. Instead, first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans might be driving some of the club’s decision-making, and the former 49ers defensive coordinator may believe he can find his next Nick Bosa at No. 2.
The Cardinals Could Get Stuck at No. 3
The Cardinals have all but put a “For Sale” sign around the third overall pick. Earlier this month, a report indicated that as many as six teams had reached out to Arizona about acquiring their selection near the top of the draft.
On Monday, ESPN’s Todd McShay wrote that the Cardinals “are desperate to move out of” No. 3. Meanwhile, Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated said “it won’t be easy” for Arizona to move the pick.
Per Breer, the Cards might have an easier time trading the third selection if the Texans pass on a quarterback at No. 2. At that point, teams with a need under center would be moving up to No. 3 with their pick of any non-Young quarterback in the draft.
Arizona has no reason to leak news about the difficulty they’re having trading their pick, so this might be coming from teams that hope to trade up. By pushing the narrative that the Cards might get stuck at pick 3, clubs with a QB vacancy could be hoping to further drive down Arizona’s asking price. It still feels likely that the Cardinals will move their choice on draft night.
Seahawks Could Consider C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson
Per McShay, there is a “strong sense Seattle won’t leave Round 1 without a quarterback,” with either Stroud or Anthony Richardson potentially on the table.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk says there is “chatter in league circles” that the Seahawks could land on Richardson at fifth overall. Meanwhile, Breer also indicates that Richardson will be an option for Seattle, given that John Schneider and Pete Carroll were fans of the similarly-built Josh Allen in 2018.
The idea of the Seahawks drafting a quarterback makes sense. Geno Smith posted the best season of his career in 2022, but there’s always a chance he could turn back into a pumpkin at age 32. And while Seattle re-signed Smith to a three-year contract, they could easily exit the deal after one season.
Richardson, in particular, might be a good fit for the Seahawks, especially if they believe the Florida product needs some seasoning. He could sit on the bench for the entirety of his rookie season before taking over for Smith in 2024.
Seattle might be leaking its interest in quarterbacks with the hope that a top-notch defender like Anderson or Carter will fall to No. 5. But the Seahawks are also in a perfect position to draft a quarterback of the future. If Seattle passes on a QB at five, they could still target a passer at 20.
Jalen Carter Won’t Fall Out of the Top 10
Although off-field issues threatened to tank Carter’s draft stock, he still projects as a top-10 pick as draft week begins.
Per Breer, the Seahawks at No. 5 are the “ceiling” for Carter. However, Seattle could be wary of drafting another mercurial DT, given their experience with former second-rounder Malik McDowell, who is now out of the NFL following a string of off-field problems. Meanwhile, McShay says “multiple sources” have indicated Carter won’t be the Seahawks’ pick.
NFL Network’s Peter Schrager doesn’t believe Carter will fall out of the top six, which could make him a candidate for the Lions’ pick. Detroit had a positive pre-draft meeting with Carter, per Breer, and the Lions want to add more pieces to their defense.
The Bears, holding the No. 9 pick, seem like the floor for Carter. Trading down from No. 1, acquiring a haul of draft capital, and still coming away with arguably the draft’s most talented player would represent a coup for general manager Ryan Poles. And McShay says Chicago has “spent a lot of time with (Carter) and putting in work on him.”
Bijan Robinson ‘Consistently’ Connected to Falcons
The Falcons are viewed as a landing spot for Texas running back Bijan Robinson, according to Breer. Meanwhile, King says that while Atlanta likes Robinson, the club also “really” wants to trade down.
Robinson is an incredibly dynamic player, but the NFL’s devaluation of the running back position could move him down boards. No RB has been selected in the top 10 of a draft since the Giants picked Saquon Barkley second overall in 2018.
MORE: Top 10 RBs in the 2023 NFL Draft
Adding Robinson might be tempting for the Falcons, but using consecutive top–10 selections on a tight end (Kyle Pitts), wide receiver (Drake London), and running back might result in disaster. Drafting non-premium positions instead of finding a franchise quarterback or investing in the trenches isn’t typically an advisable strategy.
Atlanta found Tyler Allgeier in the fifth round of the 2022 draft, and the BYU product proceeded to cross the 1,000-yard threshold in his rookie campaign. I’d be surprised if the Falcons draft a running back in the top 10, and I’d guess they’re simply trying to drum up trade interest.
Will Jahmyr Gibbs Be a First-Round Pick?
While Robinson looks likely to become a first-round pick (even if it’s not at No. 8), it’s unclear if another running back will come off the board on Day 1.
Schrager believes Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs will be a first-rounder. Meanwhile, King mocked Gibbs to the Eagles at the end of the first round and also reported that the Dolphins — who don’t pick until No. 51 — would “love” to trade up for Gibbs. McShay added that he’ll be “surprised” if Gibbs doesn’t get selected in Round 1.
Gibbs may never become a bell-cow back, which could make him a hard sell as a first-round pick. But if teams are going to select a running back on Day 1, he has to be a factor in the receiving game — and Gibbs might be the best pass-catching back in this year’s draft.