NFL Draft: AFC East 2018 first round with a year of hindsight

The 2019 NFL Draft is less than two weeks away. A year ago, the 2018 NFL Draft gave us one of the most entertaining opening frames in recent history. With the benefit of a year’s worth of hindsight, let’s re-examine how each AFC East team did in the first round.

Buffalo Bills

Pick: 7th overall – QB Josh Allen

The Bills sent the 12th, 53rd, and 56th picks to Tampa Bay in exchange for the 7th pick to secure Allen. According to the Chase Stuart draft chart, Buffalo overpaid in the trade by 8.9 points worth of draft capital. For reference, the 57th pick of the draft is worth 8.9 points.

Quarterback trades are their own beast, however. The market dynamics are just different, and in comparison to modern history, Buffalo paid a low price to move up for their QB of choice.

The History

To go from #4 to #1 for Eli Manning in 2004, the Giants gave up #4, #11, #65, and #141.  The Chargers profited 21.6 points of draft capital. The 8th pick is worth 21.4 points.

To go from #6 to #2 for Robert Griffin in 2012, Washington gave up #2, #6, #22, and #36.  St. Louis profited 49.9 points of draft capital.  The 1st pick is worth 34.6 points and the 21st pick is worth 15.2 points.

To go from #15 to #1 for Jared Goff in 2016, the Rams gave up #5, #15, #43, #45, #76, and #100 for #1, #113, and #117.  Tennessee profited 34.3 points of draft capital.  The 1st pick is worth 34.6 points.

To go from #8 to #2 for Carson Wentz in 2016, the Eagles gave up #8, #12, #64, #77, and #100 for #2, and #139.  The Browns profited 27.1 points of draft capital.  The 3rd pick is worth 27.6 points.  

To go from #3 to #2 for Mitch Trubisky in 2017, the Bears gave up #3, #67, #70, and #111.  The 49ers profited 17.3 points of draft capital.  The 15th pick is worth 17.4 points.  

To go from #27 to #10 for Patrick Mahomes in 2017, the Chiefs gave up #22, #27, and #91.  The Bills profited 14.5 points of draft capital.  The 23rd pick is worth 14.6 points and the 24th pick is worth 14.4 points.

To go from #24 to #12 for Deshaun Watson in 2017, the Texans gave up #4 and #24.  Cleveland profited 21.4 points of draft capital.  The 8th pick is worth 21.4 points.

To go from #6 to #3 for Sam Darnold in 2018, the Jets gave up #6, #34, #37, and #49. Indianapolis profited 29.1 points of draft capital. The 2nd pick is worth 30.2 points.

Buffalo paid a smaller price than any quarterback trade since 2004 (excluding the Josh Rosen trade), and in 2017 the Chicago Bears only traded up a single slot. That’s good value.

The Player

Jared Goff is the latest example as to why we shouldn’t give up on a QB after a rocky rookie season. However, Allen’s inaugural campaign was still uninspiring. Here is how Allen faired in the five major quarterback metrics in 2018:

The picture gets bleaker when we isolate QBR and PFF for just their passing components. By QBR’s passing metric, Allen ranked 31st, while PFF had him 32nd in just their passing grade.

If you followed the lead up to the draft in 2018, you already know why Allen struggled. The strong armed, mobile QB simply isn’t very accurate. Among 30 quarterbacks with a minimum of 374 dropbacks last season, Allen ranked last in adjusted completion percentage. The big arm didn’t help when pushing the ball down the field either. Among 33 quarterbacks to attempt at least 26 deep pass attempts (at least 20 yards downfield) in 2018, Allen finished 26th in adjusted accuracy ((completions+drops)/attempts).

Allen also finished dead last (30th) in adjusted accuracy on pressured dropbacks (minimum 356 total dropbacks). The most disparaging statistics, however, have to be his numbers when kept clean. Again among quarterbacks that dropped back at least 356 times in 2018, Allen ranked 29th out of 30 quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage, and last in passer rating when throwing from a clean pocket. Of all passing statistic breakdowns, a quarterback’s numbers when kept clean have the most predictive value year over year.

2019 Grade, D+

We can’t write Allen off yet, but the early returns aren’t encouraging.

Miami Dolphins

Pick: 11th overall – DB Minkah Fitzpatrick

The Dolphins had one of the easiest picks in the first round in the 2018 draft. They simply sat tight and took Fitzpatrick, who had earlier in draft season been getting top five buzz. Fitzpatrick showed well as a rookie, allowing a meager 69 passer rating in his coverage. He only allowed one touchdown, but picked off two passes and broke up another five.

Fitzpatrick’s low hanging fruit is to cut down on his missed tackles (14) and penalties (10) to make a second year leap. There isn’t any reason to doubt his ability to do so.

2019 Grade, B+

As stated above, Miami sat at their draft slot and took arguably the best player on the board. They don’t get credit for having Fitzpatrick fall into their lap, but they do deserve credit for not over thinking it.

In hindsight, we can question if they should have been more aggressive in moving up for a quarterback. However, given what we discussed in Buffalo’s capsule, not forfeiting additional draft assets to move up for Josh Allen was likely wise. If the team internally didn’t like Josh Rosen either, then to each their own, and it’s not like he lit the world on fire last year either. Besides, Miami’s offensive line isn’t leaps and bound better than Arizona’s anyway.

New England Patriots

The Pick: 31st overall – RB Sony Michel

The Patriots shocked the world when they took a running back in the first round of the 2018 draft. No team in the league has squeezed more out of the “you can find a running back anywhere” philosophy than New England over the years. Considering the Patriots were coming off a Super Bowl loss in which the defense allowed approximately one million yards and ten thousand points, ignoring the defense for a complete luxury pick seemed bizarre.

However, Michel paid off. In his rookie season, the Georgia product posted 931 yards and six touchdowns on 209 carries. He finished 9th in effective yards and 11th in success rate. He exploded in the playoffs, putting up 129 yards and three touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers on 24 carries, and 113 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries against the Kansas City Chiefs. In the Super Bowl against the Los Angeles Rams, Michel ran for 94 yards on 18 carries and scored the games lone touchdown.

2019 Grade, C

This is the perfect example of process vs. outcome. Taking a running back in the first round is inherently dubious. Doing so after watching your defense blow the Super Bowl in a game where Tom Brady threw for 505 yards and the offense never punted would be a fireable offense for any human being not named Bill Belichick. Of course, #InBillWeTrust.

And what do you know, it worked out. Michel was good in the regular season, and exploded in the postseason, en route to a Super Bowl title. The value of the pick is still iffy, but Michel looks like a top half starting running back for years to come. Still, how valuable is that at the running back position?

New York Jets

The Pick: 3rd overall: QB Sam Darnold

As noted above, the Jets sent picks 6, 34, 37, and 49 over the course of two drafts to move up to the 3rd pick in order to select Darnold. The Jets forfeited 29.1 points of draft capital in the process. The trade itself is in line with the value the Rams and Philadelphia Eagles paid in order to get their quarterbacks in 2016. So while New York paid a hefty fee, it isn’t out of line with the free market economics of quarterback trades.

We can run the same table for Darnold as we did for Allen:

If we isolate for just the passing component of QBR and PFF like we did for Allen, we find Darnold ranks 26th QBR and 31st in PFF. Similar to Allen, these numbers are grim, but the Jets paid a much larger premium to acquire their quarterback.

Like Allen, Darnold was an inaccurate passer in his rookie season, evidenced by his 28th ranking in adjusted completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 356 dropbacks in 2018. Among quarterbacks that attempted at least 26 deep passes last year, Darnold was 29th in adjusted accuracy. When under pressure, Darnold struggled with the 27th best adjusted accuracy and posted the second-worst passer rating when feeling the heat.

Similar to Allen again, Darnold was poor in the important area of how he faired from a clean pocket. When kept clean, Darnold ranked 27th in adjusted completion percentage and 26th in passer rating. Both numbers are among quarterbacks that took at least 355 dropbacks last year.

2019 Grade, D-

Darnold also posted a rough rookie campaign, but the Jets gave up much more valuable assets in order to obtain him in comparison to Buffalo. We shouldn’t count Darnold out after his rookie year, and he was visibly better later in the season than earlier on. However, the early returns are bad, and New York is out three second-round picks.