If the Mona Lisa were a DFS lineup, it would resemble this one.
I felt like Thanos as he assembled the six infinity stones the way the pieces fit together as I disseminated my remaining salary. A lineup with Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley featured at the same time? And then to still have enough salary left over to afford Khalil Shakir, James Cook, Rashod Bateman, and DeVonta Smith? Yes, please.
Allen vs. Lamar Jackson? Derrick Henry vs. Barkley? We’re answering your lineup questions with some lineup locks of our own. With some of the most productive fantasy football players in the league all active this weekend, who should you be targeting for today’s Divisional Round finale?
Divisional Round DFS Strategy: MVP Hunting
- QB: Josh Allen
- RB: James Cook
- RB: Saquon Barkley
- WR: Rashod Bateman
- WR: Khalil Shakir
- WR: DeVonta Smith
- FLEX: Dallas Goedert
- TE: Mark Andrews
- DEF: Eagles
Josh Allen: Revenge Narrative
The Week 4 loss in Baltimore was one of the worst games of Josh Allen’s career. He posted a 65.6 QB+ grade (D) based on our QB+ metrics, his lowest of the season and fifth-worst of his career.
Typically, Allen has been excellent when pressured, ranking third in EPA per dropback under pressure this season (-0.03). But this was one of the rare games where he faced heavy pressure and struggled to produce.
You may fool Allen once, but I don’t see it happening again today.
He picked apart a strong Denver Broncos defense last weekend (76.9% completion rate, his highest since posting a 78.3% rate in Week 1) and faces a less imposing secondary in the Divisional Round against the Baltimore Ravens.
Allen was phenomenal in the Wild Card win. He posted his eighth straight playoff game with multiple passing touchdowns or a rushing score and did it spreading the ball to six different pass catchers on his first 12 throws, showing his willingness to take what the defense was giving him. That will be crucial in today’s game vs. a Ravens team that doesn’t have many holes.
On the year, Allen has been responsible for 40 touchdowns over the 17 full games he played in, and we see him being responsible for at least three more today.
Saquon Barkley SZN
The Barkley conversation isn’t about his volume or his ability to produce. Those are given. He has as many streaks with 25+ carries and multiple catches as all other NFL running backs this season (two) and would have ranked seventh in rushing yards if you only counted his production in the second half of the season.
The counting numbers are safe, and the fantasy upside is at an elite level — Barkley has multiple red-zone touches in 12 straight games. For me, this is an either/or debate with Derrick Henry.
You are, of course, not obligated to roster either in DFS. Or you could roster both if you want to get really creative, but I expect the vast majority of managers to be faced with this decision and don’t think we need to overcomplicate it.
It’s Barkley.
The matchup is better (the Los Angeles Rams rank 22nd in EPA against the run while the Buffalo Bills rank second), and the projected game state is more favorable. Those are nice tiebreaker stats to look at, but there is one metric that I’m buying, and it does not require a fancy database to track.
Time of possession; Simply put, I’m more confident that the Philadelphia Eagles can stay on the field than I am the Ravens.
Time of Possession 2024:
- Eagles: 32:16 (first)
- Ravens: 31:25 (fifth)
- Bills: 30:30 (12th)
- Rams: 29:11 (24th)
The Rams have been the eighth-worst third-down offense and allow the fifth-most yards per carry before contact. In my opinion, there are more ways for the Eagles to stay on the field than for the Ravens, and that moves things in Barkley’s direction.
When stacking up ceiling cases for these two, if we are assuming similar volume, Philadelphia’s bell cow has three of the top-four per-touch games of 2024. Spending Sunday night sweating a Henry fade is not going to be an enjoyable 3-4 hours, but that’s the way I’m playing it when it comes to the pricey RBs.
Let James Cook
Cook cleared 100 rushing yards before Allen got to triple figures through the air last week. While I’m not projecting anything like that this week, I do believe he is the type of player who can come through in a big way, even against a stingy run defense (the Bills ran for just 81 yards on 23 carries in the first meeting), if the ownership price is right.
The rosters with star running backs are going to run low on money quickly, and the teams who elect to build around WR assume much more risk, especially in the cold (which it will be for the majority of these games), and given the more hard-nosed style of play we tend to see in the playoffs.
The teams who elect to build around Allen aren’t too likely to pair him with Cook, as the QB-RB construction isn’t a comfortable one due to the lack of a clear path to correlated scoring. I love this sneaky stack in what could be a high-scoring game.
Dallas Delivers
Dallas Goedert’s stiff arm last week against the Green Bay Packers will be on highlight films for years to come. And while the single play stands out, his earning six targets on just 18 routes is what has my interest.
The Eagles have shown a willingness to lean on the run, which makes Goedert’s return to Philadelphia’s offense a huge addition. He brings a much different edge to the offense (a-la last week’s stiff arm) and can expose a defense down the middle on play-action.
With Goedert’s health improving from week to week, I like him to see 5-7 targets in tonight’s matchup.
