Here we are football fans! We’ve arrived at what might be the best weekend of the year. If you’re anything like me, you’ll be glued to your TVs on Saturday and Sunday like the ball was in Sam Darnold’s hands the last two Vikings games — all day long.
In all seriousness, there are four absolute bangers on tap this weekend, with eight of the NFL’s best teams squaring off for their chance to ascertain a spot in their respective conference’s championship games. Will Josh Allen continue his playoff dominance? Will the Jayden Daniels bubble (hot air balloon?) pop? Can the Philadelphia Eagles offense come to life before Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams arrive?
All of these questions will be answered by Sunday night — but when it comes to your DFS lineups? We’re answering your lineup questions with some lineup locks of our own. With some of the most productive fantasy football players in the league all active this weekend, who should you be targeting for your DFS lineups?
Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Spreading the Wealth
QB: Jayden Daniels
RB: James Cook
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
WR: Terry McLaurin
WR: Khalil Shakir
WR: Devonta Smith
FLEX: Xavier Worthy
TE: Sam LaPorta
DEF: Eagles
Jayden Daniels Has Arrived
To me, this is the YOLO play of the week — and when it comes to DFS, especially tournament lineups, we’re looking for a little extra pop.
Daniels has been phenomenal during his NFL introduction, that’s obvious. He posted the first 320/820 season in NFL history (completions/rush yards) and has nine games with at least 33 fantasy scoring chances (completions + rushing attempts) this season.
The Detroit Lions have enjoyed significant success since the start of 2022, but their performance takes a hit when facing a quarterback who is a genuine threat with their legs. Daniels’ athletic gifts give him the potential to undo any defense at any time, and that’s exactly why I’m leaning on him in my DFS lineup this week.
Am I saying that I think he’ll play well enough to beat Detroit? Absolutely not. However, I think Detroit’s mighty offense, a likely come-from-behind game script, and an extremely intense playoff environment will contribute to Daniel’s rushing upside — which just happens to be the largest hole in the Lions’ defense.
Including playoffs, Daniels has thrown 12 touchdowns with just one interception against the blitz and 13 touchdowns with zero interceptions against man coverage. Containing Daniels in man coverage could prove especially challenging for the Lions. The Washington Commanders rookie has averaged 7.7 yards per rush on scrambles against man coverage while scrambling a league-high 12% of the time in those situations.
Double-Dipping the Detroit Lions
The first assignment on our plate, we’re locking in on Jahmyr Gibbs. Yes, yes, we know — David Montgomery will be back in his usual place as RB1A in Detroit this weekend, but this spot is too promising for the faster, more explosive Gibbs.
On top of this, when you look at the player pool, getting Gibbs as a cheaper contrarian play to players that will be more highly targeted like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry seems like a no-brainer, because his matchup is that good. I’m currently planning on Montgomery playing, and that actually has me more interested as I believe the minor dip in projections would be more than offset by the competition pivoting.
Bucky Irving ran all over the Commanders last week, and the Commanders’ defense as a whole earned a D+ in PFN’s Defense+ metric. If the Commanders show up to Detroit with a D+ defensive effort this weekend, Gibbs should be able to take his 15+ touches per game (eight of the last nine games) to the house.
With an expected point total of 55.5 points, I love Gibbs to be a big contributor in this one.
The second Lion I’m targeting is Sam LaPorta. Over the last six weeks, LaPorta has regained the position he earned last year, somewhere near the top of the tight-end totem.
Last season, we got a late TD hat trick from Detroit’s standout TE, and he hauled in nine passes in consecutive playoff games (the third tight end to ever do that). This season, he’s seen at least six targets in eight straight games and is putting together pace numbers that look awfully familiar.
LaPorta’s receiving production:
Weeks 13-18, 17-game pace: 91 catches for 967 yards and 11 TDs
2023 season (17 games): 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 TDs
For these reasons, and these reasons alone, I’m riding with LaPorta for another week.
Let James Cook
James Cook cleared 100 rushing yards before Josh Allen got to triple figures through the air last week, and while I’m not projecting anything like that this week, I do believe he is the type of player that can come through in a big way, even against a stingy run defense (the Buffalo Bills ran for just 81 yards on 23 carries in the first meeting), if the ownership price is right.
The rosters with star running backs are going to run low on money quickly, and the teams who elect to build around WRs assume much more risk, especially in the cold (which it will be for the majority of these games) and given the more hard-nosed style of play we tend to see in the playoffs.
Rostering Cook and Gibbs seems like an extremely cost-effective way to lock in a 15+ touch floor and multiple goal-line looks. I’m all in.
