While the weather dominated the process for our Week 8 NFL DFS picks, we shouldn’t have that issue this week. There are five dome games on the slate, not including the week’s two highest total games (Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills and Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers). Before we get to the Week 9 NFL DFS picks for cash games and GPP tournaments; I want to touch on something that saved many DFS players in Week 8: late swap.
Late swap talk for cash games and GPP tournaments
Late swap is a feature that is utilized far less than it should be. I was around five points behind the cash line in cash games last week. I had several popular and busted players while my remaining players (Keenan Allen, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Tyler Lockett) were projected to be popular before the slate locked. I didn’t think I could make up the necessary ground with these three popular players, so I went from Lockett and Allen to DK Metcalf and Mike Williams, which also afforded me enough salary to move up to Justin Herbert.
In my other cash lineup (yes, I played two), I swapped out Allen and Brandon Aiyuk for Metcalf and Williams. My priority was to get to Metcalf as leverage off of Lockett. Lockett projected for one more point that Metcalf yet was expected to be three times as popular. Even if the median projection was three points worse, the gap in ownership was worth it to swap to Metcalf if you felt like you were behind.
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I’m not trying to toot my horn or anything: I still lost a small amount despite the swap. I’m saying that these are things you need to be thinking about before the slate locks if you find yourself in a disadvantageous position headed up to the second set of games. Have your 2v2’s and 3v3’s ready in case you feel the need to swap.
With that out of the way, let’s get to our Week 9 NFL DFS picks for cash games and GPP tournaments.
Week 9 NFL DFS: Top value picks at each position
I’m going to be condensing the number of players I mention in this section to include players I deem “cash game viable.” I’m doing this because I want to focus more on strategy in DFS tournaments.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson ($7600): If you have the money to spend all the way up at QB in NFL cash games, I prefer Wilson. He has the second-highest implied team total on the slate, while the Seattle Seahawks are one of the heaviest passing teams in the league.
Josh Allen ($7000): He’s struggled the past few weeks, but no one (aside from Kyler Murray) has more rushing upside at the QB position, and the Seahawks defense could be what he needs to get his passing numbers back on track.
Matt Ryan ($6400): The Falcons offense is predicated on the pass, while Ryan has the sixth-highest implied team total on the board. However, you’re giving up rushing upside (last week’s game notwithstanding), and he might struggle if Calvin Ridley is not in the lineup.
Drew Lock ($5200): I like Lock for the price and game environment this week. The Falcons pass defense is porous, while Lock showed some promise in the second half against the Chargers. He has some modest rushing upside as well. In my opinion, paying down for Lock in NFL cash games is a viable strategy this week.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook ($8200): I apologize for missing Cook last week. In hindsight, it was such an easy DFS tournament pivot, and I missed it. Cook ranks third in the league in opportunity share percentage (carries + targets) and comes in with the fourth-highest team total on the slate. He’s the top projected play at RB this week with an affordable price tag for NFL cash games and GPP tournaments.
Chase Edmonds ($6800): It could finally be time for Edmonds to take over this Arizona backfield with Kenyan Drake to miss the game. He has been on par with Drake in fantasy scoring, despite receiving a significantly lower workload.
Josh Jacobs ($6300): Jacobs has been a massive disappointment with just two games over 20 points on DraftKings, but this shapes up to be a good spot for Jacobs. According to Sharp Football Stats, he’s third in the league in opportunities per game (carries + targets) and gets a Chargers defense that ranks 14th in rushing success rate against.
David Johnson ($5600): Johnson is always appealing on paper, yet not attractive due to the name. He’s eighth in the league in opportunity share while the Texans have the third-highest team total on the slate. I have no qualms with playing Johnson in NFL cash games this weekend.
Wide Receiver
For WR and TE, I decided to look at the last four weeks as far as target share and WOPR goes. As the season goes on, teams change, so if we see a trend forming, we can take advantage of it by getting ahead of it.
Julio Jones ($7200): Jones is the top receiver this weekend by a decent margin. He has a 27% target share the past four weeks, and with Calvin Ridley expected to miss this game, that figure should be north of 30% against the Broncos. Considering the game environment, Jones’ role, and price, he’s one of the slate’s top WR values, and one of my favorite NFL DFS picks in cash games and GPP tournaments.
Stefon Diggs ($7400): I probably won’t get to Diggs in cash games considering Julio is $200 cheaper, but he’s a great play in his own right. Despite Allen’s struggles, he has continued to pepper Diggs with targets, leading him to rank third in weighted opportunity (WOPR) and second in target share (36.25%) the past four weeks. Buffalo and Seattle have the highest total on the slate with just a three-point spread, putting Diggs in line to have a massive game.
Terry McLaurin ($6500): McLaurin is a target hog, ranking fourth in target share and first in WOPR the past four weeks. His price is starting to creep up to a respectable number but still leaves him a top value pick for the NFL DFS Week 9 slate.
Robby Anderson ($6300) / D.J. Moore ($5600): The return of Christian McCaffrey ($8500) leaves just enough doubt to be slightly uncomfortable playing either receiver in cash games this weekend, as there’s a small chance CMC turns into the opportunity hog he was last season. That said, I don’t believe that will be the case, but I could be wrong. Anderson leads Moore in air yards, target share, and WOPR the last four weeks, hence the $700 gap in pricing. Moore’s $5600 price tag is more appealing, but if you have the cash and can’t get up to McLaurin, Anderson is the superior play.
Brandin Cooks ($5500): Cooks has earned five more targets than Will Fuller ($6800) the past four weeks, which equates to a 27.33% target share and a WR17 ranking during that time frame. The pendulum could easily swing back in favor of Fuller the next few weeks, but we can safely call Cooks a solid cash game value at this price tag until it does.
Diontae Johnson ($5000): He flopped last week, and the Steelers might not need much, if anything, from Johnson against the putrid Cowboys. Still, we have seen his upside several times this season, and at $5000, I don’t blame you for going here in cash games.
Tim Patrick ($4900) / Jerry Jeudy ($4700): If Patrick suits up for this game, he’s my preferred target between these two. If not, I’ll look to Jeudy. Patrick has had seven and eight targets the past two full games he played, while Jeudy exploded for 10 targets last weekend.
Darnell Mooney ($3900): He gets a great matchup against the Tennessee Titans, while he leads the Bears in air yards the past four weeks.
Michael Pittman ($3900): Teammates Marcus Johnson ($3000) and T.Y. Hilton ($4600) have not practiced as of Thursday. Pittman received just one target in their first game after the bye week, but if Johnson were to miss time, he could be in line for a more significant role this weekend against the Baltimore Ravens. Either he or Mooney are in play to be the salary saver you need in NFL cash games.
Tight End
Darren Waller ($5800): Waller leads all TE’s in target share since Week 5 and gets a Chargers defense that has been mediocre against the TE position. The Raiders and Chargers have the second-highest total on the board with a zero-point spread. If you have the cash, Waller is an excellent play.
T.J. Hockenson ($5100): He’s been the TE8 overall since Week 5, with a 20% target share, which ranks eighth in the league among TE’s. Hockenson saw 10 targets last week with a limited Kenny Golladay. As long as Matthew Stafford ($6600) plays, Hockenson is in play this week.
Noah Fant ($4600): Fant ranks seventh in target share (21%) and fourth in WOPR (47.25) among TEs since Week 5. It’s an excellent spot for the Denver offense, which makes Fant arguably the best Week 9 NFL DFS value pick at TE on the slate.
Defense
Pittsburgh ($4500): They play Dallas. Their price will depress their ownership in GPP tournaments, but their ceiling is far and away top the defenses on this slate.
Houston ($3100): The Texans are seven-point favorites against a rookie making his first start. Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks 32nd in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate, while the Texans boast the 11th ranked defensive line in adjusted sack rate.
New York Giants ($2700) / Washington ($3400): Much like their first game, both defenses are in play against subpar offenses.
Just play whatever defense fits your remaining salary.
NFL DFS Game stacks and leverage picks
It isn’t enough to pick out the players who will do well. In DFS tournaments, we have to pick out the players who can outperform expectations relative to ownership. There are a few ways we can go about this:
- For popular RBs, stack the passing games around them.
- For popular passing games, play the RB.
- Stack the teammates of popular players or other negatively correlated pieces of that game.
With that quick tutorial out of the way, let’s see where we can find leverage on this slate.
Chase Edmonds: The pickings are somewhat slim on Arizona in regards to the passing game. Kyler Murray ($7800) and DeAndre Hopkins ($8200) are the obvious choices, but after that, it’s Christian Kirk ($5300), and that’s it for our NFL DFS picks.
If you want to roster Edmonds, pairing him with a Dolphins stack makes a lot of sense. If Edmonds does well, it’s likely the Cardinals are in a positive game script, or there is a lot of back and forth scoring in the game. Tua Tagovailoa ($5500), Preston Williams ($4100), DeVante Parker ($5200), and Mike Gesicki ($4400) will all be less than 10% owned.
Stacking the Dolphins passing game and bringing it back with Edmonds is an excellent way to get exposure to one of the best plays on the slate without going too “off the board.”
James Conner: We saw this scenario just last week, where Patrick Mahomes ($8100) threw for five touchdowns, leaving nothing for anyone caught in his wake. You’re hoping for something like that if you roster the Steelers passing game. Pick whatever receivers you want; that part doesn’t matter.
Keenan Allen: My preferred way to go about gaining leverage off of Allen is to stack the passing game around him; that is Mike Williams ($5100) and Hunter Henry. ($4000). You can also go the route of Justin Jackson ($4900), which is fine.
Of course, while Allen is projected to be the highest owned WR on the slate, the Las Vegas Raiders don’t figure to garner a lot of attention. Stacking the Raiders passing game and running it back with Allen gives you as good a chance as any to be all alone atop the leader boards this Sunday.
Game Stacks
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs / Total 52.5
There are only two players in this game projected for double-digit ownership in GPP tournaments: Robby Anderson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6100). The 10-point spread is probably making people shy away, which is fine by me. The Chief’s upside goes without saying, but I think the Panthers can hold their end of the bargain here.
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It’s too expensive to go to Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and a Panthers player, so I prefer double stacking the Carolina side and running it back with a single Chief. Pairing Bridgewater with his receivers and running it back with Kelce is my preferred way to go. However, depending on the GPP tournament contest you’re playing, any route you take can get you there.
This might be the only time we ever get McCaffrey at near five percent ownership. He’s looked great this week in drills and should be ready to assume his massive workload as per usual. McCaffrey, and this game as a whole, is one of my top NFL DFS picks for GPP tournaments in Week 9.