I hope all of you enjoyed your Thanksgiving holiday. In this Week 13 article, I’ll highlight my top NFL DFS picks, game stacks, and low-owned plays for daily fantasy contests this weekend.
You may notice a slight change in the formatting of the article. I won’t be highlighting my favorite positional values anymore. I’m solely focusing on tournament strategy from here on out. Let’s get to it!
Week 13 NFL DFS Picks: Fantasy game stacks
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-5.5) / Total 53.5
The Browns and Titans have the highest total on the board and a close point spread. These factors suggest a competitive back and forth game. Both teams are fairly similar in that they are run-heavy and possess bad defenses. Their overall pace isn’t what you want to see, but they both play at a fast pace in neutral game scripts. Plus, both offenses should be able to put up points based on efficiency: both defenses are in the bottom third in terms of rush and pass defense success rate (according to Sharp Football Stats).
With that said, it’s hard to ignore Derrick Henry in this spot. The alien RB started “D-Hember” early this season with a monster performance in Week 12. The problem is, if you roster Henry, you’re joining roughly a quarter of the field in doing so.
The Titans did say they wanted to get him involved more in the passing game, so if that comes to fruition, Henry’s usual worries getting scripted out of the game would be for naught. I don’t mind pairing Henry with a Browns passing-game stack, as if the Titans are in a position to feed Henry the ball 25+ times, the Browns will probably need to throw to keep up.
Leveraging off of Henry
However, my favorite way to attack this game is rostering Nick Chubb and running it back with Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown. Chubb is every bit as good a runner as Henry is, and the Browns are just as run-heavy as Tennessee is.
If they can get a lead in this game, it’ll force the Titans to throw more than they want. Even if the Browns don’t play with a lead, I still like rostering the Titans’ passing attack as leverage off of Henry. QB production is highly correlated with their team’s implied team total. The Titans have the second-highest team total (29.25) on the slate, yet Tannehill is priced as a mid to low-end QB1 on daily fantasy sites.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Houston Texans / Total 50.5
Among the games with the highest totals on the Week 13 NFL main slate, this one is one of my least favorite picks for daily fantasy contests. I view the loss of Will Fuller as huge for Houston’s passing offense. As currently constructed, I don’t think this offense has the upside to win you a GPP. Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and Jordan Akins all project to be among the highest-owned players at their positions, making them easy fades for your Week 13 NFL DFS picks.
As for the other side, I don’t mind mixing in some Jonathan Taylor in your GPP player pool. The rookie finally had a productive game in Week 11 as he dominated the Colts RB carries and tied for the lead in RB targets with Nyheim Hines, according to FTN Daily. Michael Pittman will be a popular choice on the Colts offense, but it’s most likely Taylor if I’m playing a one-off from this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) / Total 51
Mike Glennon was able to move the ball pretty well last week against the Browns. This week, he gets another lousy defense, in a dome at that. It’s a one-game sample, but the Jaguars had a 58/42 pass/rush split under Glennon in Week 12, which is what you want to see when stacking a game in DFS. My preferred target to roster with Glennon is D.J. Chark. Chark missed last week but will return for this contest. By far, he’s the Jaguars’ top WR, so Glennon should look to get him the ball plenty. Glennon and Chark also act as leverage off of James Robinson.
Glennon is so cheap; he’ll let you afford the expensive run back that is Dalvin Cook, or whichever one of the WRs you choose to roster. This is one of the sneakier fantasy game stacks this weekend, but one that will guarantee you to be different from the rest of the field. The price of a Glennon stack makes it one of my top Week 13 NFL DFS picks.
Daily fantasy picks: Singular NFL team stacks
Below I’ll outline some daily fantasy team stacks I like, followed by my favorite run back options from the other side of that game. However, I don’t think you have to run it back with the teams below.
Arizona Cardinals / Team Total 22.75
For full disclosure: I bet on the Rams in this game because I don’t think Kyler Murray is healthy. I believe something is going on with his shoulder that Arizona is keeping secret. That said, DFS is a game of probabilities. My worries could easily be for naught. Murray could be fine and put up the overall QB1 score he’s been posting all season. If you roster Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, you’re getting arguably the top QB-WR duo in the NFL at less than 10% ownership.
Cam Akers is intriguing as a running back option for the Rams. While his snap share isn’t anything to write home about, he’s seen his opportunities rise in recent weeks. He led the Rams in carries in Week 10 while recording just one fewer carry than Darrell Henderson in Week 12. Akers has been a zero in the passing game, but at $4500, you won’t need much from Akers to pay off his salary. Of course, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are good picks to pair with your Murray stacks for Week 13 NFL DFS contests.
Las Vegas Raiders / Team Total 27.25
The Raiders were abysmal last weekend, so what better team to face when in need of a bounce-back than the hapless New York Jets? Devontae Booker is the lead RB now that Josh Jacobs has been ruled out. Despite the projected uptick in opportunity, he doesn’t figure to be too popular. None of the Raiders offensive players do, for that matter. Waller will see his fair share of ownership, but not enough, in my opinion.
Nelson Agholor’s status is in doubt for this contest, leaving more opportunities for Waller and rookie Henry Ruggs. The Raiders project to score a lot of points, yet no one figures to play them. Fire them up as a top fantasy game stack this weekend.
Low-owned NFL daily fantasy picks
Here are a few players I like at 10% ownership or less.
Aaron Jones ($7200)
There are a few reasons why I love Jones this weekend.
- Green Bay has the third-highest team total on the slate.
- They are (-7.5) favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles at home.
- His ownership will be nowhere near it should be on this slate.
- Jones has as high a ceiling as any RB in the league.
- His elevated target share provides somewhat of a floor as well.
All of these factors make him my favorite RB pick in Week 13 NFL DFS GPPs.
Myles Gaskin ($5900)
Before he went down with an injury, Gaskin was the workhorse RB for the Miami Dolphins. I expect that to be the case in this contest as Gaskin is the lone man standing among Miami RBs. The Dolphins have the sixth-highest implied team total (26.5) and are double-digit favorites over the Bengals, who serve as the ninth-easiest matchup for RBs, according to Phillip Caldwell’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score (DPAC).
Chris Carson ($6300) / DK Metcalf ($8200) / Tyler Lockett ($7400)
The Seahawks are projected to score the slate’s third-most points, yet no one wants to play their skill guys. Carson could fall into a multi-touchdown game as a ten-point home favorite against the New York Giants. Metcalf and Lockett’s upside is well known. One, or all three of these players, should be in your GPP player pool.
Julio Jones ($6600)
While Jones has disappointed this season, you’re getting a drastic discount in ownership by choosing to roster him this week. It appears to be all systems go for the Falcons WR. Feel free to include him in your picks at the lowest price I can ever remember seeing him in NFL daily fantasy contests.
That’ll be all for my Week 13 NFL DFS picks. One last note before I go: don’t play David Montgomery chalk. I have two reasons for this. One, there are several RBs in his range that project similarly at far less ownership, and two, he’s not good.
Good luck with your contests this weekend!