2020 NFL DFS: Cash game and GPP picks Week 1

NFL DFS picks for Week 1 of the 2020 season l Game stacks

Now that you have an idea of what my process looks like, I’ll outline some of my favorite NFL DFS picks for Week 1 of the 2020 season, to include game stacks and values at each position.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Neither of these defenses projects to be very good, while we have two of the better QBs in the league at the helm for both offenses. I do expect this game to be popular, so be sure to differentiate elsewhere in your line up if you choose to game-stack this game. Todd Gurley is my favorite play on Atlanta, priced as the RB12 at $6100. While I have season-long concerns regarding Gurley’s knees, he is healthy (I think) to start Week 1. The Falcons should feature him as a three-down back, and he may be in line for the most opportunities of any RB not named Christian McCaffrey ($10000).

On the Seattle side of the ball, I like Tyler Lockett ($6500). D.K. Metcalf ($5800) is $700 cheaper than Lockett, but that might lead to higher ownership for Seattle’s second WR. Lockett can beat you in all facets of the game, while Metcalf seems to be more touchdown-dependent. If I were making just one lineup and choose to stack the Seahawks, I would roster Lockett over Metcalf

Other plays: Julio Jones ($7700), Calvin Ridley ($6100), Matt Ryan ($6100), Russell Wilson ($7000), Hayden Hurst ($4300)

Related l PPR Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings: 1QB and Superflex

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garappolo ($5800) had two of his highest-scoring fantasy games of the season against the Cardinals in 2019. It is a seven-point spread, but Arizona could have easily swept the 49ers last season. If the Cardinals keep it close, it will force the 49ers to keep the “pedal to the metal.”

We aren’t sure if Deebo Samuel ($5300) or Brandon Aiyuk ($4500) will be available for this game, which could hurt the 49ers ceiling. I’d prefer at least one of them to be playing if we are to stack this game. If both receivers miss the game, Trent Taylor ($3900) becomes a fantastic value, while George Kittle ($7200) would be in line for an obscene amount of targets.

As for Arizona, I’m probably playing Christian Kirk ($5000), whether I’m stacking this game or not. While DeAndre Hopkins ($6800) is the talk of the town, Kirk will have a better rapport with QB Kyler Murray ($6400) to start the season.

Related l Can Kenyan Drake replicate his breakout 2019 fantasy season?

That said, you should have some Hopkins if you are stacking the Cardinals. The same goes for Kenyan Drake ($6400). The Cardinals offense lends itself favorable to efficient rushing production, regardless of the matchup. Drake was dominant in Arizona last season and should continue that run as long as he earns the majority of the snaps. I also like Andy Isabella ($3600) as a cheap punt if you’re feeling frisky.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington

I added Carolina’s data from last season, as this should be a similar offense to what we saw from the Panthers in 2019.

As I was writing my values (listed below), I realized I suggested three Washington players as playable values. If you want to YOLO stack Washington, go for it. It will allow you to afford more high priced players than other team stacks or game stacks would. Dwayne Haskins ($5000) might be the best QB value on the slate.

Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers

This game could be a bit under the radar as far as a full game stack goes. McCaffrey and Jacobs will be popular plays, but no one else is getting a lot of sentiment from the industry. I like D.J. Moore ($6600) as a low owned, high ceiling tournament option in a game where we expect Carolina to be trailing. Curtis Samuel ($4600) is a fine piece in a game stack as well.

Henry Ruggs III ($5100) and Bryan Edwards ($4200) project to be overshadowed by their teammate Jacobs. A stack of the Raiders passing game (to include Darren Waller at $5900) is good leverage off of the popular Jacobs.

NFL DFS picks for Week 1 of the 2020 season l Values at each position

Here are my favorite values and top plays at each position to fill out my roster. I don’t have QBs listed because your QB should be part of your stack.

NFL DFS Running Back picks

Josh Jacobs ($6800)– The Panthers had a historically terrible run defense last season, while Las Vegas boasts a top-five offensive line and desire to run the ball. This could go sour if the Panthers get out to an early lead, as Jacobs’ target share is in flux. But I think, more often than not, the Raiders win this game and Jacobs has an efficient, potentially slate breaking, game on the ground.

Jonathan Taylor ($5700)/Marlon Mack ($5300)– The Indianapolis Colts have the third-highest team total (26.5) on the board, and could be nursing a massive lead in the second half. Indianapolis had the third-highest early-down rush percentage in the league last season (55%) in neutral game scripts, according to Sharp Football Stats. I’m confident this team wants to run the ball, and sure they will be successful in doing so.

Mack and Taylor are likely to split the load, so you’ll need to roster the RB who gets the touchdowns. I can’t confidently say who that will be, so feel free to mix both in if you like the spot as much as I do.

Antonio Gibson ($4000)– Gibson should see all of the backfield targets for Washington in a game we expect the Hogs to be trailing. I don’t expect much from Gibson, but for the stone minimum, you could do worse than 4-6 targets, and a few carries from an explosive player.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver picks

Davante Adams ($7300)– He will probably see 30% of the Packers targets in this game, though game flow could be an issue. However, even in a low-scoring game, 10 receptions, 100 yards, and a touchdown is a realistic expectation for one of the best receivers in the league. The game is being played in a dome, and the Vikings secondary will not be as good as it was last season.

Keenan Allen ($6400)– He is another candidate to see 30% of his team’s targets given the absence of Mike Williams. It is only a 3.5 point spread, so it isn’t out of the question that the Cincinnati Bengals keep this game competitive and keep the Los Angeles Chargers throwing.

[sv slug=”betsocial”]

Odell Beckham Jr./Jarvis Landry ($5900)– I think both of these players should be in your player pool. Landry has always out produced expectations despite a lack of hype, while Beckham is far too cheap relative to his talent level.

Terry McLaurin ($5600)– Another receiver who could see 30% of his team’s targets and another case where the talent doesn’t match the price. We probably won’t see McLaurin at $5600 again this season, so take advantage while you can.

Marvin Jones Jr. ($5500)– With Kenny Golladay being listed as doubtful, Jones becomes the favorite to lead Detroit in targets this Sunday. Jones is a case where I am fine “eating chalk” and differentiating elsewhere in my line up.

DeSean Jackson ($4900)– I was far more excited for Jackson before Raegor was announced as a full participant in Friday’s practice. In fact, the entire industry was buzzing about Jackson as he was projected to be one of the highest owned players on the Sunday main slate. If he is still going to garner that kind of ownership percentage, Jackson becomes an easy fade in tournaments.

Related l Week 1 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire

Bryan Edwards ($4200)– Edwards was named a starter coming out of the Raiders “training camp.” The Carolina defense is terrible all around, so whatever opportunities Edwards receives could yield high efficiency.

NFL DFS Tight End picks

Zach Ertz ($5800)– Another rash of injuries has led to an increased role for Ertz. He is probably a few hundred dollars too cheap for his projected target share.

T.J. Hockenson ($4200)– I loved Hockenson before the Golladay news, so I’m doubly as excited for him now that Golladay is doubtful. I might lock him in as my TE and move on.

Ian Thomas ($3400)– Explosive TE who should be in negative game script throughout. I don’t know how many targets we can expect from Thomas, but it only takes one to pay off his price.

Related l OSM Back to the Future: Panthers TE Ian Thomas’ top-ranked performance from 2018

Logan Thomas ($2800)– You could do far worse for a true punt. Same deal with (the other) Thomas in that I don’t know how many targets he will see, but he has the athletic profile to pay off his price with one extended play.

NFL DFS DST picks

A general rule of thumb for picking defenses is to target those who will be facing a lot of pass attempts, not units that are good at point prevention. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive scores are what you want out of your defense, and passing plays offer the highest chance of those events happening.

Colts ($3000)– Should be in positive game script throughout against a below-average offensive line.

Chargers ($2800)– Good pass rush against an inept offensive line facing a QB who will be making his first start. Zac Taylor was also above league average in calling early-down pass plays in 2019.

Packers/Raiders ($2600)– Packers have one of the top pass rushes in the league and are facing a QB that isn’t good off-script. As for the Raiders, they vastly improved their pass rush and play an offensive line that projects to be well below average. The Panthers should also be throwing throughout the contest.

Washington ($2000)– The cheapest defense possible. Their price does not reflect how good their pass rush is. While the Eagles still have an excellent offensive line, injuries have made this match up exploitable for Washington.