If you’re playing a Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL DFS lineup for Sunday Night Football in Week 7, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Dolphins Considerations
With Tua Tagovailoa expected to return, we should anticipate a more efficient Miami offense, particularly in the second half after he’s had a few drives to shake off any rust. And remember, he’s still only 24 years old, still gelling with co-No. 1 receiver Tyreek Hill and a mostly revamped backfield.
MORE: Top Dolphins vs. Steelers Player Props
The good news is that he’s facing one of the worst pass defenses in the league (based on passing yards and passing touchdowns yielded). On the downside, Raheem Mostert alone can’t elevate the running game beyond middling, and Pittsburgh’s run defense has been well above average.
So Miami’s path to victory runs through Tagovailoa and his two primary wideouts. One big question concerns Mike Gesicki — will he build off of last week’s impressive performance? Or will he revert to more of a blocking-TE role?
Steelers Considerations
Another team, another QB recovering from a concussion. Rookie Kenny Pickett is poised to earn his third career start. Former starter (and former backup, and former-former starter, etc.) Mitchell Trubisky played admirably in relief of Pickett last weekend. This DFS lineup assumes Pickett is still an upgrade over Trubisky, giving Pittsburgh’s receivers a meaningful bump.
And that’s key because the Steelers’ running game could get much worse. Najee Harris remains overpriced in DFS competitions based on volume and reputation. In reality, his 3.2 yards per carry and dramatically reduced passing-game role make him the riskiest expensive option in this slate.
While that might open the door for his much cheaper backup, Jaylen Warren has eclipsed 4.3 DFS points only once this season, and that was in a blowout loss to the Bills. Assuming this contest remains fairly close, we should see a lot more of Harris, as usual. It’s a lose-lose proposition if we’re investing in the Steelers’ backfield.
Top NFL DFS Lineup for Sunday Night Football
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins ($16,500)
We’re paying a 1.5x premium for Tagovailoa, knowing he’ll deliver 1.5x the production. Will it be worth it? Well, I think most competitors will choose Tyreek Hill or even Jaylen Waddle as their Captain. Tagovailoa is a bit of a zig while others zag. Yet, as long as he’s healthy, Tua’s ceiling is as high as anyone playing in this game.
Flex: WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($11,200)
Not much explanation needed. Hill has dominated in three of six contests, and he’s been “good enough” in two others. He belongs in every DFS lineup because not including him carries more risk.
Flex: WR Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($9,600)
Injury concerns make Waddle less expensive than Hill and Tagovailoa. However, he racked up 20.9 DFS points last week while supposedly playing hurt. As I wrote this summer, there is no one alpha receiver on this team. Hill and Waddle are much like DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown in Philadelphia. In any given week, either one could go bonkers.
Flex: WR Cedrick Wilson Jr., Dolphins ($200)
Is this a typo? Six weeks ago, “$200” would have looked like a typo for Miami’s well-paid No. 3 wideout. These days, Wilson’s barely earning a dozen snaps per game while playing behind Trent Sherfield and River Cracraft.
So this is a nothing-to-lose pick. Because including Wilson gives us financial flexibility to secure two solid-upside receivers (more on that below). It also assumes there’s at least a possibility that Miami gets Wilson more involved. If we trust recent comments from Dolphins wide receivers coach Wes Welker, that possibility seems more likely than not.
Flex: WR George Pickens, Steelers ($6,400)
Four Pittsburgh receivers should garner attention tonight. We need to figure out which one has the best chance of breaking out. I believe Pickens is that guy. Granted, it could be Chase Claypool or Diontae Johnson, but Pickens’ strong connection with his QB wins out.
Flex: TE Pat Freiermuth ($5,000)
With $6,100 remaining, we can roll with Pat Freiermuth or Mike Gesicki, or perhaps a kicker or D/ST. Despite his inexplicable struggle with drops (three on only 32 targets), I like Freiermuth’s red-zone usage and the fact that the Dolphins have given up the third-most TE receptions in the league.