If you’re looking for New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL DFS picks for Sunday Night Football in Week 9, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Saints Considerations
Whether or not the Michael Thomas era in New Orleans is over, this franchise has more important things to worry about. Andy Dalton beating out Jameis Winston for the starting job is a net negative. While Dalton brings experience, Winston, at his best, arguably was better.
This might be the first time since 2008 that this team finishes in last place in the NFC South. Quite a fall for a squad that was oh-so-close to knocking off the eventual Super Bowl champion Buccaneers in the playoffs two seasons ago. Drew Brees’ final NFL game that day was also his first three-interception postseason game.
That last gasp at greatness has devolved into many more gasps in the nearly two years since. Last season, they fielded one of the league’s least-effective receiving corps. This past offseason, they retooled with rookie Chris Olave and the capable-to-talented Jarvis Landry, plus a returning Thomas.
But as we weigh DFS options, we return to a familiar story. This team still has a great RB and now a great young WR in Olave. Everyone else is a flier — from the hit-or-miss Dalton to the inconsistently utilized Taysom Hill to a smattering of TD-dependent WRs and TEs.
The opposing Ravens have been more effective against the run than against the pass. But let’s be frank: their vulnerable 2021 defense remains vulnerable in 2022 — still yielding the 14th most points per game and still hemorrhaging yards along the way.
If Kamara and Olave are our anchors, then will we need any other Saints? Would a cheap add-on like Juwan Johnson or even Tre’Quan Smith help us assemble a top-heavy slate?
Ravens Considerations
Early in their face-off against the Browns last season, the 8-4 Ravens lost Lamar Jackson for the rest of the season. Baltimore went on to lose that game and the four that followed, barely missing out on a postseason berth. It was a historic collapse, and a healthy Jackson surely could have made the difference.
Fast-forward one year, and Jackson’s healthy and thriving. While his numbers have drooped since a blistering opening three weeks, he remains unquestionably elite at his position. In fact, he leads all QBs with an incredible 10 broken tackles this season. For context, Josh Allen led all QBs in broken tackles last year with 12.
But while the Ravens lost Jackson at a critical time last season, this season is all about their decimated receiving corps. No Mark Andrews. No Rashod Bateman. Demarcus Robinson is hobbled. Jackson’s top two receivers are Devin Duvernay and rookie Isaiah Likely.
And you know, that might be enough. Both guys stepped up last week. They might do just fine against a defense that’s still missing Marshon Lattimore.
However, there are wild cards to consider, like the proven Robinson if he’s active, or even James Proche, who competed with Duvernay for the No. 2 WR job this summer. Might 2021 fourth-rounder Tylan Wallace finally get some run? Or . . . will the soon-to-be 36-year-old DeSean Jackson make the most of what could be his final NFL opportunity?
Finally, the backfield. With Gus Edwards out, Kenyan Drake will give it another go, backed by the seemingly less versatile (but still talented) Justice Hill. The Saints defense was tops in the league last year in opposing yards per carry (3.7). This year they’re a more pedestrian 4.5. There’s an opening for Drake, depending on whether we can afford him.
Top NFL DFS Picks for SNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: WR Chris Olave, Saints ($12,900)
A half-dozen New Orleans receivers could snag 3+ balls for 40+ yards. But only one has a realistic shot at a 5-100-1 line. Olave’s surpassed 100 yards twice, and four times he’s caught five passes.
He’s facing a pass-friendly defense that surrendered 70+ yards to three Cleveland receivers a couple of weeks ago. That might have been the first time the Browns accomplished that feat since the 1980s.
The key is that while Olave might not be the safest play or the top scorer, he’s a great bet for 18+ DFS points. As our Captain, he gives us more financial flexibility compared to Jackson or Kamara filling this slot.
Flex: QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($12,400)
Speaking of Jackson, we need to include him despite his lofty price tag. Before last weekend’s 21.8-point performance, he’d scored between 10.7 and 18.1 in his previous four contests. So there’s cause for concern. But unless we think the Saints will completely shut down Baltimore’s offense, Jackson should be the beneficiary of most of his depleted team’s production.
Flex: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints ($11,400)
After a slow, injury-riddled opening month, Kamara is clicking in an offense centered largely around him. With Mark Ingram sidelined and the less versatile Dwayne Washington stepping into the backup role, I like Kamara dominating backfield touches en route to another 20+ point evening.
Flex: RB Kenyan Drake, Ravens ($7,200)
I’ve gone back and forth on this decision. The fact is, I don’t trust any other Saint at or below his price. Maybe Juwan Johnson, but with Adam Trautman back, that TE corps could be a cluster. Drake’s four receptions last week should give us confidence of a high floor and terrific ceiling.
Flex: TE Isaiah Likely, Ravens ($5,800)
While his price concerns me a bit, he could be Jackson’s No. 3 or even No. 2 receiver. If you watched him last week, you know he looks more than ready to not just contribute but make waves at the NFL level.
Flex: WR DeSean Jackson, Ravens ($200)
With $300 left to spend, we’re taking a shot on DJax. And if, for some reason, he’s declared inactive, then I’d swap him out for the $200 Tylan Wallace.