If you’re looking for Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders NFL DFS picks for Monday Night Football in Week 10, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Eagles Considerations
The undefeated Eagles beat the hapless Texans in Week 9, though it wasn’t exactly a cakewalk. What’s in store as they face Washington?
Big things, I tell ya. Big things . . .
The first question I try to answer before creating a DFS lineup is what I think the final score will be. This evolved from an analysis of likely game scripts. Washington’s middling defense needs to play their best football of the year to keep Philly from matching their 24-point output when these teams last met in Week 3.
Washington has surrendered 16 passing TDs compared to three interceptions — one of the league’s highest (i.e. worst) ratios.
On the plus side, the Commanders’ D has yielded a respectable 4.4 yards per carry, despite facing the likes of Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, and a host of other good-to-great rushing attacks.
So I’m envisioning a heavy dose of Jalen Hurts through the air, and with the game out of hand, some needed reps for pseudo handcuff Kenneth Gainwell.
Commanders Considerations
What do we make of Washington’s backfield? If Brian Robinson Jr. keeps netting 12+ touches per game, it would be tough to trust him or the higher-priced Antonio Gibson in DFS. They’re both primarily TD-dependent, given their respective costs, and I’d rather conserve funds for the high-flying Eagles’ best playmakers.
It’s unfortunate because Philly’s yielding 5.2 yards per carry. If I were Washington’s head coach (thankfully for all of sportsdom, I’m not), my path to victory would be 38+ touches for Robinson and Gibson in the hopes of sustaining some long drives and limiting the Eagles’ possessions.
But that might be easier said than done, as the Eagles might anticipate this and force Taylor Heinicke to win through the air. Philadelphia has given up the second-fewest passing yards while picking off the most passes. A desperate Commanders team in the second half might pick up chunk yards against a prevent defense content to run out the clock.
This all adds up to (perhaps) one or two decent nights for Washington receivers and not much else to write home about (or Zoom home about, for all you hipsters).
Top NFL DFS Picks for MNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: Eagles D/ST ($9,600)
We’re hoping for a D/ST touchdown here. Putting them in our Captain slot gives us enough financial flexibility to get almost any other Eagle we want. 11+ points seems realistic, and we shouldn’t be surprised if they capitalize on a shaky Heinicke trying to do too much.
Flex: QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($12,200)
What more can be said? If he doesn’t score 20+ points, it probably would be on account of 3-4 TDs from his RBs. Hurts should deliver tonight, as always.
Flex: WR A.J. Brown, Eagles ($10,600)
I can’t justify leaving A.J. Brown off this slate. Only Hurts has a comparable ceiling.
Flex: WR DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($8,000)
A recent slump might scare away some/many DFS competitors. He’s been nearly invisible four times this season, including in Weeks 8 and 9. But Smith’s re-emergence is a foregone probability. I ain’t scared o’ no ghosting.
Flex: WR Curtis Samuel, Commanders ($6,600)
I started this section by pushing Jahan Dotson ($5,000) to be paired with Kenneth Gainwell ($4,600) and then shifted strategies. Curtis Samuel isn’t much more expensive than Samuel, and I’d rather stack a couple of Washington receivers for garbage-time points.
Flex: TE Logan Thomas, Commanders ($2,600)
Zero DFS points in his last two games make him as risky as any starter. But this team doesn’t have a choice. They have to get Logan Thomas going. I’m banking on, at minimum, a 3-28 receiving line