If you’re playing a Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL DFS lineup for Monday Night Football in Week 8, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Browns Considerations
Cleveland has amassed 167 passing TDs since the start of the 2014 season, spanning 136 games. For context, Patrick Mahomes has thrown 171 TD passes since the start of the 2018 season (69 games).
Now, not everyone can be Mahomes. In fact, almost no one can. But if we were to bet on Cleveland QBs’ and WRs’ and TEs’ fantasy production the past decade or more, we would have lost much more than we’d won.
For example, it’s been 15 years since the Browns had a top-16 fantasy QB. Since 2014, the average positional ranking of their highest-producing fantasy WR has been 37th. In case you’re wondering (and I sure did while researching this), no other team since 2014 has had a worse average ranking for their No. 1 WR.
More currently, only four of this year’s top 200 fantasy WR performances were achieved by Browns players (all four were Amari Cooper).
I could write volumes of text on Nick Chubb’s greatness. Yes, we all know what Chubb can do. But when crafting a DFS lineup for this game, we have to ask ourselves, “Should we bet on any Browns besides Chubb?” Because the odds of two Cleveland players thriving alongside Chubb are slim at best.
Bengals Considerations
The Ja’Marr Chase injury news hit suddenly and, for some of you fantasy managers, painfully. I had recently tried to trade for him in my league. My opponent politely turned me down. Sometimes the best deals are the ones we don’t make.
Our DFS options narrow a bit as a result. Among deep bargains, Mike Thomas will be very cheap. But as I often advise folks, don’t land a cheap player in DFS unless you feel confident he’ll get involved. Because some fliers aren’t worth flying if you know what I mean.
One of the biggest questions for us should be whether we can afford all four of the Bengals’ top fantasy options: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Boyd’s relatively reasonable DFS price might make him a no-brainer, although he could also be a trap play, as another 20+ point output seems like a stretch.
But the same could be said about Burrow. The opposing Browns have been middling against the pass — and I mean “middling” in the best way possible. In recent weeks they’ve done incredible jobs containing Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson. Burrow will be expensive. Should we invest heavily in him?
Top NFL DFS Lineup for Monday Night Football
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Nick Chubb, Browns ($15,600)
As always, we can take DFS slates in many directions. Let’s start by locking down an elite RB trying to (again) help carry his team to victory. Chubb leads all RBs in red zone touches. Last year he converted 41 red zone looks into five touchdowns (12%). This year he’s already converted 24 into six (25%).
Flex: RB Joe Mixon, Bengals ($9,400)
Who’s No. 2 in red-zone targets this year with 23? Yes, Mixon. While he’s converted only two, and despite continued inefficient rushing, he’s a key cog in the Bengals’ offense. His role might even grow with Chase out and against a defense yielding 4.7 yards per carry and an NFL-high 13 rushing scores.
Flex: WR Tee Higgins, Bengals ($8,000)
Of course. If he flops, so be it. In terms of probabilities, Higgins should be primed for a huge evening. Maybe he gets “only” 14 DFS points. But few guys tonight possess his elite ceiling.
Flex: WR Tyler Boyd, Bengals ($6,400)
We’re going for it. Although this might be trap play, Boyd is too affordable to ignore. Let’s hope the 27-year-old can fend off defenders as a primary target rather than merely as a secondary one.
Flex: TE Hayden Hurst, Bengals ($5,200)
A weekly TD threat and tied for eighth with 39 tight end targets. Hayden Hurst was my favorite preseason TE bargain. He continues to hold terrific DFS value.
Flex: WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns ($5,000)
Surprising? Possibly. Based on the probabilities, I’m not willing to bet on two Cleveland receivers. But one is acceptable, especially a $5,000 receiver who’s hit 50+ receiving yards in each of his last four games.
With TE David Njoku out, we could spend $1,000 less on Harrison Bryant. But for what purpose? Peoples-Jones has a much higher floor and ceiling.