When the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds first opened months before the season, Dallas Cowboys EDGE/LB Micah Parsons was the betting favorite to win the award, and Cleveland Browns EDGE Myles Garrett wasn’t far behind. But after last week, Garrett passed Parsons for the first time all season, and EDGE/LB T.J. Watt remains firmly in the mix.
With nine weeks left in the season, the Defensive Player of the Year award is far from being decided, but what we do know is that it appears to be a three-man race. So who is the best bet to win the award?
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
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Garrett is currently the betting favorite to win DPOY at +140. He has a narrow lead over Watt (+200) and Parsons (+225). The other candidates are long shots at the moment — no other player has odds shorter than +2000.
- Myles Garrett (+140)
- T.J. Watt (+200)
- Micah Parsons (+225)
- Nick Bosa (+2000)
- Aidan Hutchinson/Maxx Crosby (+2200)
- Fred Warner (+3300)
- Chris Jones (+4000)
- Danielle Hunter (+5000)
- Haason Reddick (+6600)
- Roquan Smith (+8000)
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pick
All three of the aforementioned favorites are so close in odds and are each deserving of winning the award, so who is the best bet at the moment?
Garrett is the favorite right now because he’s the best player on the best defensive team in the NFL. At 11 sacks, he is currently tied with Minnesota Vikings EDGE Danielle Hunter for the most in the NFL. Still, Watt isn’t far behind with 10.5.
MORE: NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds — Should CeeDee Lamb Get More Consideration?
Parsons, on the other hand, is tied for just 10th in sacks this season with 7.5, but his impact goes far beyond the box score. He is currently leading all defensive players in pass rush win rate at 34% — he has a four percent lead over Garret for best in the NFL. Parsons also leads Watt in pass rush win rate by 13%, despite being double-teamed nearly twice as often.
But the previous two winners of this award have each led the NFL in sacks — San Francisco 49ers EDGE Nick Bosa (2022) and Watt (2021) — and Parsons might have too much catching up to do at the moment.
I have a +400 ticket on Garrett from earlier this season, so I won’t be betting on him at much shorter odds, but he’s the rightful favorite and the best bet to win the award at the moment. The difference in odds between him and Parsons/Watt isn’t big enough for there to be any value, in my opinion.
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