Here we are football fans — we have arrived at the NFL‘s version of the Final Four. Two teams will punch their tickets to New Orleans tomorrow with wins in the Conference Championship Round and secure their spots in the Super Bowl.
The air is thick with anticipation — division rivals face off for the NFC title and two of the best QBs in today’s game face off in the AFC, and with just three games left in the 2024 NFL season, tomorrow is a huge day.
What does that all mean to me? It means one more multi-game DFS slate until next season. What am I going to do about it? Stack Saquon Barkley and Playoff Trav in the same lineup and ride them to the top of tournament leaderboards.
After cashing some big ones with last week’s Divisional Round DFS lineup, let’s dive into this week’s player pool.
Conference Championship DFS Strategy: Saquon SZN
QB: Jayden Daniels
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: Austin Ekeler
WR: Dyami Brown
WR: Xavier Worthy
WR: Khalil Shakir
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Zach Ertz
DST: Kansas City Chiefs
All in on Jayden Daniels
I’ve absorbed a lot of knowledge over the years and — well, I’m running out of words to describe what it is that Daniels is doing. Last week, he became the first player in NFL history with two touchdowns and 12 rush attempts without an interception in consecutive games (regular or postseason).
His legs are what inspire the most fear (15+ yard run in five of his past six games), but we are talking about a true dual threat (35+ yard completion in four of his past five) who is playing with house money.
In his last seven games, Daniels is 7-for-7 in terms of multi-TD pass games, and I like his chances to extend that. When it comes to evaluating his upside, I think you have to tell a story regarding this matchup. Philadelphia is the fourth-best defense at creating pressure without blitzing.
Washington is a touch better than the average when it comes to preventing such pressure. That is the matchup I’m using to determine my exposure levels. During the postseason, Daniels’ yards per pocket pass attempt is up 25.7% from what he produced during the regular season. If he’s comfortable back there, he has a real chance to be the top producer this weekend.
The Real MVP: Saquon Barkley
Barkley has more rushing yards in touchdowns against the Los Angeles Rams this season (282) than any other player has for the season as a whole. Let that sink in for a moment. Those chunk plays don’t just come against the Rams — Barkley has five 60-yard rushing touchdowns this season, an NFL record.
He’s averaging 2.55 yards per carry before contact, a rate that is not only 41.7% better than his previous career best but a cool 160.2% better than a year ago with the New York Giants. The Washington Commanders may not be as forgiving as the Rams on the ground, but Barkley hasn’t exactly had issues picking them apart this season.
With him proving to be weatherproof last weekend, being 24.6% more expensive than any other RB is plenty justifiable.
Regular season games with 26+ carries, 5+ YPC, and 2+ rushing TDs, 2024:
- Barkley: three
- Barkley against the Commanders: two
- All other NFL RBs: two (Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson)
Barkley has played the Commanders twice already this season, and he has over 300 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. The question is not whether rostering Barkley makes sense but whether you can build a team around him that gives you a path to the top of a tournament. It wasn’t easy, but I simply won’t be able to live with myself if Barkley isn’t in my lineups this weekend.
Playoff Kelce
Chess to checkers.
We knew it all season, and it’s again proven true. While the Detroit Lions were busy going all out for a meaningless Week 17 win, and the Green Bay Packers dealt with injuries resulting in a Week 18 game that, as it turned out, had no impact on seeding, the reigning champions have managed their Hall of Fame tight end since November.
And guess what?
The man showed out in the Divisional Round. Kelce finished with 66.1% of the Chiefs’ receiving yards in the 23-14 win over the Houston Texans — the only instance in which a TE accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s receiving yards in a playoff game since 2000 was … yep, Mr. Kelce (2019 Divisional Round against Houston).
Kelce scored twice on five catches against the Buffalo Bills last postseason, and I’d suggest looking at that game more than the regular season meeting (Week 11 at Buffalo: two receptions for eight yards) between these two), as that is when Andy Reid elects to unleash the beast.
Kelce’s per-game production since 2022:
- Regular season: 6.3 catches, 85 targets, 65.5 yards, and 15.2 PPR points
- Playoffs: 8.3 catches, 9.5 targets, 91.1 yards, and 23.4 PPR points
Kelce’s 49-yard catch in the Divisional Round was his longest in 454 days. It would appear that we have cheat code Kelce back on our hands for the rest of this season.
Dynamic Dyami
Brown has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the playoffs thus far. Yes, he is absolutely benefitting from this incredible stretch of play from Jayden Daniels, but I’m starting to think the Commanders may have found a sneaky weapon here.
Brown has averaged 4.5 receptions per game over his last four games and has crossed the 50 receiving yards line in three of those games, going over 80 in his last two. The Eagles boast a solid pass defense, but their attention will be spent keeping Daniels in front of them and preventing chunk plays, which should leave plenty of room for Brown to find space underneath.
