Nothing about predicting the NFL Draft is an exact science. However, data from NFL Scouting Combine participants this century has highlighted some indicators that correlate with meaningful NFL careers.
Before the event, PFSN studied NFL Combine participants from 2000-22 to determine which drills best predicted the likelihood of a prospect playing 3+ years by position group. To recap those findings, the most important drills were:
- 40-yard dash for defensive backs and running backs
- Vertical jump for edge rushers, wide receivers, and tight ends
- Broad jump for offensive linemen
With the 2025 NFL Combine in the books, which NFL Draft prospects stood out in those categories, and who could emerge as a sleeper?
Which DBs and RBs Stood Out in the 40-Yard Dash?
When adjusting for weight, defensive backs who beat their position’s average time went on to play at least three seasons nearly 75% of the time, while running backs who did the same did so about 65% of the time:
- DBs With Above-Average 40 Time:
74.6% played 3+ seasons, 74.3 average career games played - DBs With Below-Average 40 Time:
57.0% played 3+ seasons, 51.9 average career games played - RBs With Above-Average 40 Time:
65.4% played 3+ seasons, 56.4 average career games played - RBs With Below-Average 40 Time:
41.8% played 3+ seasons, 38.4 average career games played
In 2025, 24 running backs ran the 40-yard dash. The top five weight-adjusted performers at each position were:
- Bhayshul Tuten (Virginia Tech): 4.32 seconds at 206 pounds
- Montrell Johnson Jr. (Florida): 4.41 seconds at 212 pounds
- Omarion Hampton (North Carolina): 4.46 seconds at 221 pounds
- DJ Giddens (Kansas State): 4.43 seconds at 212 pounds
- Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State): 4.48 seconds at 221 pounds
Tuten’s run was the fastest of any running back at this year’s NFL Combine, and he did so at roughly the position average weight (which is 210 pounds). Tuten had the third-fastest 40-yard dash by a 200+ pound running back since 2000. He trailed only Chris Johnson (4.24 seconds in 2008) and Keith Marshall (4.31 in 2016).
Montrell Johnson Jr. is seen as a fringe draftable prospect, but the Florida running back turned heads with his 40-yard time. Johnson ran the fifth-fastest 40 among running backs despite weighing more than the position average. His production declined his senior season with his lowest rushing total in four collegiate seasons, but this suggests he could be an intriguing late-round flyer.
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Among earlier-round projections, Hampton and Judkins likely solidified first- or second-round selections with strong performances at the NFL Combine. Both weighed in at 221 pounds, tied for the third-heaviest running back at the NFL Combine, yet managed to post sub-4.5-second 40 times. Running backs weighing over 220 pounds while running a sub-4.5 40 in recent years include Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Ezekiel Elliott.
None of the highly ranked running backs truly disappointed in this drill. Ollie Gordon III ran a 4.61 at 226 pounds, which is a roughly average expected time for a player who was the heaviest back at the NFL Combine. Gordon’s draft stock has fallen from a potential first-round pick to the Day 3 range, and the NFL Combine didn’t really change that.
Among the 39 defensive backs to run at Indy, the top-five weight-adjusted performers were:
- Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina): 4.38 seconds at 220 pounds
- Darien Porter (Iowa State): 4.30 seconds at 195 pounds
- Caleb Ransaw (Tulane): 4.33 seconds at 197 pounds
- Marques Sigle (Kansas State): 4.37 seconds at 199 pounds
- Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky): 4.28 seconds at 183 pounds
Emmanwori received significant attention for his 40-yard time, and with good reason. He was seven pounds heavier than any DB but ran a sub-4.4 anyways. Since 2000, Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons (4.39 in 2020) is the only defensive back to run a sub-4.4 40 at 220 or more pounds, and he was considered a linebacker coming out of college (though that makes his feat even more impressive).
Porter also impressed with his 4.3 time, the second-best weight-adjusted score among DBs this year despite weighing slightly less than the average DB. Porter also ran the fastest three-cone time (6.71 seconds) of any defensive back this year, which could be even more helpful in solidifying him as a Day 2 pick.
Hairston ran the fastest 40 of any player at Indianapolis but only ranks fifth here due to his weight. Hairston was the fifth-lightest defensive back at the NFL Combine, roughly 17 pounds lighter than his peers on average. However, he was still only the seventh DB since 2000 to run a sub-4.3, making this an impressive feat regardless of his weight.
On the flip side, Malaki Starks is in contention to be the top safety drafted, but it won’t be off his 40 time. The Georgia safety ran a 4.5 at 197 pounds, a touch below average for his size.
In addition, Kansas cornerback Cobee Bryant ran a 4.53 at 180 pounds, making him a little slower than the average DB who ran in 2025 while also weighing about 20 pounds lighter than average. That could drop Bryant from Day 2 consideration to early Day 3.
Which WRs, TEs, and EDGEs Stood Out in the Vertical Jump?
The vertical jump correlated most significantly with prolonged NFL careers at these positions. Among players to play at least three seasons after testing at the NFL Combine, 72.8% of edge rushers, 64.4% of tight ends, and 55.6% of wide receivers beat their positional average in this drill.
Out of the 36 wide receivers to participate in the vertical jump this year, these were the top-five weight-adjusted performers.
- Isaiah Neyor (Nebraska): 38 inches at 218 pounds
- Isaac TeSlaa (Arkansas): 39.5 inches at 214 pounds
- Jayden Higgins (Iowa State): 39 inches at 214 pounds
- Sam Brown Jr. (Miami, FL): 41.5 inches at 200 pounds
- Elic Ayomanor (Stanford): 38.5 inches at 206 pounds
Neyor cracked the top 10 among WRs in this drill despite being the heaviest receiver in Indianapolis, which vaulted him to the top of this list. He is seen as a fringe draftable prospect at the moment, but his explosiveness in this drill suggests he could be a sleeper.
Higgins and Ayomanor are all seen as Day 2 prospects who reinforced that standing with strong performances in this drill. Brown had the highest vert regardless of weight and did so despite weighing about five more pounds than the average.
Brown is not a highly rated prospect right now, but the last three receivers to jump at least 40 inches while weighing over 200 pounds were all drafted within the first two rounds (Xavier Legette, Quentin Johnston, and Rashee Rice).
Fifteen tight ends participated in the drill, with the top five being:
- Robbie Ouzts (Alabama): 34 inches at 274 pounds
- Jalin Conyers (Texas Tech): 35.5 inches at 260 pounds
- Terrance Ferguson (Oregon): 39 inches at 247 pounds
- CJ Dippre (Alabama): 34.5 inches at 256 pounds
- Moliki Matavao (UCLA): 32.5 inches at 260 pounds
Ouzts sort of breaks this system. He was easily the heaviest tight end to test at the NFL Combine, weighing in 14 pounds heavier than anyone else. Still, finishing at the position average while being easily the heaviest player deserves some credit, even if most would not have considered Ouzts an obvious winner from this class.
Conyers and Ferguson rounded out a top three that was far above the rest of the tight ends who tested in this drill. Ferguson was slightly lighter than the position average but had one of the five highest jumps in the last 10 years. Conyers wasn’t far behind him, despite weighing more than 10 pounds heavier than average.
Finally, 21 edge rushers recorded a vert this year. The top five performers were:
- Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M): 40 inches at 267 pounds
- Landon Jackson (Arkansas): 41 inches at 264 pounds
- Ashton Gillotte (Louisville): 36.5 inches at 264 pounds
- Collin Oliver (Oklahoma State): 39 inches at 240 pounds
- Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA): 37 inches at 259 pounds
Stewart and Jackson had the two highest jumps overall and were far above the rest of their group in this drill considering they were also both above the position average for weight. Both had nearly identical scores. While Stewart solidified his standing as a first-round pick with a freaky overall performance, Jackson may have entered the conversation with second-longest broad jump and eighth-fastest 40 time at the position.
There was a big drop-off after that to the rest of the group. Oliver is seen as a clear Day 3 prospect due to his lighter frame, but he did manage the third-highest jump to help compensate for that. It was also a reassuring sign for those concerned about his broken foot that limited him to two games in 2024.
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On the flip side, James Pearce Jr. from Tennessee had an extremely mixed NFL Combine performance. Although Pearce dazzled with the fastest 40 time of any edge rusher (4.47 seconds), his 31-inch vert was the fourth-worst at the position. When adjusting for the fact that he was about 16 pounds lighter than average at 245 pounds, that was the worst weight-adjusted jump for any edge rusher this year.
That doesn’t necessarily doom Pearce’s career, but there isn’t much precedent for edge rushers to weight less than 250 pounds and jump 31 inches or less.
The most successful among that group were largely players who became solid role players rather than stars: Lorenzo Alexander, Akeem Ayers, and Arden Key stand out. Unlike those players, Pearce is expected to go in Round 1 and star for his new team, but his vertical jump raises questions about that possibility.
Which OL Stood Out in the Broad Jump?
Offensive linemen didn’t have a particularly strong correlation between career length and performance in one specific drill, but the broad jump came closest — 54.4% of tackles who were above-average performers in the broad jump played at least three seasons, while 46.9% of guards had at least three-year careers after beating their position’s broad jump average (centers were not statistically significant in any drill).
Splitting it into tackles and guards, here were the top five tackles (out of 13 who tested) and top three guards (out of eight who tested) at each position in this drill.
Tackles:
- Armand Membou (Missouri): 9’7” at 332 pounds
- Jalen Travis (Iowa State): 9’4” at 339 pounds
- Will Campbell (LSU): 9’5” at 319 pounds
- Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota): 9’3” at 331 pounds
- Carson Vinson (Alabama A&M): 9’3” at 314 pounds
Guards:
- Tate Ratledge (Georgia): 9’5” at 308 pounds
- Dylan Fairchild (Georgia): 9’3” at 318 pounds
- Caleb Rogers (Texas Tech): 9’3” at 312 pounds
Membou led all offensive linemen with the longest broad jump despite weighing nearly 17 pounds above the position average. The Missouri product was the second player and first offensive lineman since 2000 to weigh at least 330 pounds and jump as far as he did. The other was defensive tackle Jordan Davis, who went in the first round to the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022.
Campbell’s questions revolved solely around his arm length, but there haven’t been any doubts about his athleticism. The LSU left tackle was tied for the second-longest jump among offensive linemen and weighed in slightly above the position average. If you consider him a guard instead, Campbell would have had the highest score of any guard at the NFL Combine in this drill.
At guard, Georgia had each of the top two weight-adjusted jumpers. Ratledge and Fairchild combined for 59 career starts for the Georgia Bulldogs and have the physical testing to back up their game experience as well. Both are seen as late Day 2 or Day 3 picks due to the position’s value, but could emerge as early starters for their new teams.
Notable underperformers in this drill included first-round projections Kelvin Banks Jr. (8’8” at 315 pounds), Tyler Booker (7’10” at 321 pounds), and Josh Conerly Jr. (8’7” at 311 pounds). Booker had the lowest weight-adjusted jump of any player this year, part of a rough overall NFL Combine outing for the Alabama guard.
Banks and Conerly were not nearly as egregious, and both ranked among the top seven OL in the vertical jump to compensate.