The Super Bowl is behind us, and the Philadelphia Eagles hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. While the focus will now shift to NFL free agency and the 2025 NFL Draft, it’s never too early to look ahead to next season. With that in mind, PFSN’s staff compiled their bold predictions for the 2025 campaign.
Remember that these are meant to be bold — they may not be likely to occur, but through various stats and insights, there is certainly a path for them to come to fruition. Without further ado, here’s one bold take for every single NFL team for the upcoming season!
Bold Predictions for 2025 NFL Season
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray vaults himself into the MVP discussion with a top-five QB+ season
The 2024 season may not have gone according to script for Arizona (and fantasy football) fans who were invested in Murray, but be patient. His QB+ in 2022 was 63.9 (28th among qualifiers), a grade that rose to 71.6 the following season (20th), and — despite a lack of consistency from Marvin Harrison Jr. — to 77.2 in 2024 (16th).
We know that not all development is linear, so what if Harrison’s growth simply got flipped with Puka Nacua’s? Harrison entered with expectations and underwhelmed early, while Nacua burst onto the scene as a fifth-round rookie. Normally, you’d expect the Day 3 pick to take more time, but not all paths are the same.
During Nacua’s breakout season, Matthew Stafford saw his final QB+ grade improve by 22.8% from the previous season. If Harrison’s pedigree shines through this season and we pencil in Murray for similar growth, his QB+ would check in at 94.8 (for reference, the four QBs who were named MVP finalists this past season had an average QB+ of 93.1).
The Cardinals play the AFC/NFC South divisions in 2025 while facing Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Dak Prescott as a result of their third-place finish in 2024. So this team will prioritize putting points on the board and Murray’s trajectory gives him a path to a special season.
Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. leads all Year 2 quarterbacks in passing touchdowns
The 2024 rookie class showed well for itself in Year 1 with two playoff appearances and a strong finishing kick from Drake Maye. The untapped potential of J.J. McCarthy is interesting as a cog of a Vikings offense that obviously has upside, but the current lack of clarity regarding his role clouds his 2025 projection, not to mention a lack of NFL reps.
Enter Penix.
His debut was delayed with Kirk Cousins leading this team for the first three months of the season, but the lefty made three starts down the stretch and has a reasonably clear path to a strong sophomore campaign.
Penix wrapped 2024 with an 81.0 QB+ in Week 18 against the Panthers, the sixth-highest mark for the week. Of course, the opponent and week matter (not all of the big-named QBs threw the 15 passes it takes to qualify for a weekly grade due to their team’s standing), but in an impactful spot, it was an encouraging outing regardless.
In 2024, five players reached 30 passing scores; four of them had an unquestioned alpha top receiver that the signal-caller wasn’t shy to lean on the way Penix did with London.
- Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase
- Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans
- Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson
I’m hesitant to forecast McCarthy, so if you rule him out, it’s possible if not likely that London is the best receiver that any of the Year 2 quarterbacks has on their offense, and that’s intriguing when it comes to counting touchdowns.
Also impacting the chase for scores is the projected game environments. Here are the Defense+ rankings (and grades) for the teams with a QB in this conversation.
- Patriots: 30th (64.2)
- Falcons: 29th (65.5)
- Commanders: 17th (73.2)
- Bears: 13th (77.4)
- Vikings: third (83.5)
- Broncos: first (90.6)
The Falcons should be operating in a passing script as much as any of these teams, something that can obviously inflate quarterback numbers. The Patriots should find themselves in a similar spot, and I’m optimistic about Drake Maye, but he’s playing behind an offensive line that graded 32nd in PFN’s OL+ metric as opposed to Penix who is behind 2024’s 11th-best group up front.
The Falcons’ out-of-division road games include two West Coast games (Cardinals and 49ers) that shouldn’t carry much weather risk and have a pair of away contests that come indoors (Vikings and Colts). There is 30-touchdown potential here, and if you think Bo Nix/Jayden Daniels hit ceilings more than mean outcomes in 2024, that might be enough to pay off this prediction.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens will be unbeaten through December and be the NFL’s top overall seed
Baltimore has two of the top-six regular-season Offense+ seasons in our database (2019-24), and the Ravens saw their Defense+ trend up in a meaningful way throughout the regular season.
Regular Season Defense+ Trend, Ravens
- Games 1-7: 73.5 average Defense+
- Games 8-13: 76.1 average Defense+
- Games 14-17: 83.9 average Defense+
At this point, we know what the offense brings to the table. Lamar Jackson is in the conversation for the most impactful player in the sport, and Derrick Henry (18 TDs this regular season and 5.9 yards per carry) is going to be a tough tackle until the end of time. But what if the defense flirts with elite status? Only two defenses held an 83.9 Defense+ grade for the entire season, one of which was the Super Bowl champion Eagles.
The bold claim might not be as bold as it sounds; if you include the playoffs, the Jaguars and Bears were the only teams in 2024 with more losses in games decided by five points or less (Baltimore had five), and that doesn’t include a seven-point loss at Arrowhead where they were an Isaiah Likely toenail away from sending things to overtime.
A difficult schedule awaits Baltimore (the division is always hotly contested and they face the NFC North), but this team is talented enough to do something truly special if the defensive film from late last season carries over to this regular season.
Buffalo Bills
James Cook joins O.J. Simpson as the only two Bills to run for 1,500 yards in a season
Josh Allen’s development was impressive this season as he took care of the ball at a level that we weren’t sure he’d ever reach, but don’t allow his MVP-caliber season to take away from what his star running back was doing to support him.
Over his last six games with Allen (excluding Week 18, when Allen took a single snap to extend his starts streak), Cook averaged 3.57 yards per carry after first contact. For reference, Derrick Henry averaged 3.50 this season and Josh Jacobs guided the Packers by plowing ahead for 3.45 yards per carry after contact.
That number represented a 14.1% growth for Cook over the first 14 weeks of 2024 and 33.2% from his 2023 rate. We know he is dangerous in space and, thanks in part to the attention Allen commands and the single-defender situations Cook is consequently afforded, he has proven himself as nothing short of elite when hitting the hole.
The Bills boasted a top-five offensive line in 2024 according to OL+, making 2025 a perfect spot for a further breakout. Cook benefits from playing nine games next year against defenses that ranked no better than 25th against RBs in either yards allowed before or after contact per carry in 2024, making this more of a prediction of volume than anything.
Cook will likely need to average 17-20 carries per game to hit this number, and that might be a little optimistic, though he did carry the ball 17.7 times per game during the postseason.
I think there’s a chance that usage continues after Allen posted the worst first-down passing season of his career (61.4% completion rate and an 87.0 passer rating, both more than 8% below his career rates), thus making him a threat to join Simpson at the peak of rushing in Upstate New York.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young (career-high 2,877 passing yards) is 2024 Baker Mayfield and clears 4,000 yards through the air
Mayfield saw the biggest QB+ boost from 2022 (53.6) to 2023 (79.6) in his first season under Dave Canales, a title Young (50.7 in 2023, 67.8 in 2024) held this past season.
Canales increased Mayfield’s average depth of target by 26.5% from the previous season and helped him trim his interception rate by 25%. We saw signs of similar progression last season from Young, another former top pick but one who had less NFL seasoning when Canales took over.
- 2024 Young, Weeks 1-11: 7.8 air yards per throw and a 2.3% INT rate
- 2024 Young, Weeks 12-18: 9.4 air yards per throw and a 1.3% INT rate
That’s a similar statistical growth (+20.5% aDOT and a 43.5% improvement on interception rate), and the Panthers boast a young core of skill position players to support Young.
Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams will be the most impressive Year 2 QB in 2025
The top overall pick in 2024 was outshined by a pair of draftmates last season, but the trends are moving in the right direction for him to take a monster step forward in 2025.
2024 QB+
- Jayden Daniels: 85.2 (rank among qualifiers: sixth)
- Bo Nix: 74.7 (18th)
- Caleb Williams: 63.1 (33rd)
Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels were nothing short of special during their rookie seasons and there’s no taking that away from them. But how much room do they have to grow given the rosters around them and the expectations that are now in place?
For Williams, the stage is set. The supporting cast is strong, the offensive line has the potential to improve (we graded this unit 17th last season and project them to draft help with the 10th overall pick), and the schedule is friendly when it comes to projecting this offense (Cowboys, Giants, Raiders, and Saints are all vulnerable defenses on the books while the Lions, Packers, Bengals, Eagles, Commanders, 49ers, and Ravens will all push Williams to be aggressive).
Williams’ QB+ Development
- Games 1-4: 65.3 average QB+
- Games 5-9: 71.8 average QB+
- Games 10-17: 73.9 average QB+
Daniels and Williams left the college ranks with similar promise and, by season’s end, Nix and Daniels were labeled as franchise options. We need more than a one-year sample to re-rank these signal callers and I expect the three top options of the 2024 draft to cluster much closer this upcoming season in terms of QB+ and all other grading metrics.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals go from a bottom-five ranking in Defense+ … to a bottom-three ranking
The 2024 season felt like rock bottom for the Bengals’ defense. Cincinnati lost an NFL-record four games in which they scored at least 33 points. Even with some late-season improvement, the Bengals ranked 28th in PFN’s Defense+ metric.
The thing is, 2024 wasn’t really rock bottom … because things can absolutely get worse in 2025. Trey Hendrickson produced a career year, leading the NFL with 17.5 sacks (his second straight year hitting that exact total), but Hendrickson turned 30 in December, and his contract will be the subject of scrutiny as he enters the final year of his deal while making $16 million in cash.
That’s tied for 22nd among defensive linemen, and it’s hard to imagine Hendrickson is happy with that arrangement after requesting a trade last offseason.
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is also gone, which feels like a curious choice. The Bengals brought back their former linebackers coach Al Golden (who was with the team for two seasons from 2020-21), but this will be Golden’s first NFL defensive coordinator gig. Without major personnel upgrades, it seems unlikely Golden can produce the type of results Anarumo did at Cincinnati’s heights in 2021 and 2022.
Ultimately, as porous as the Bengals’ defense was in 2024, it’s more alarming when you realize they reached that with a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season. Without a repeat performance from Hendrickson on top of uncertainty at the coordinator spot, the Bengals can sink lower in 2025.
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland doubles its win total if they land Shedeur Sanders in the draft and repeat their struggles if Cam Ward is their first pick
The Browns won 11 games just two seasons ago, but after a 3-14 season, they are in a position to make a statement at the draft.
Since Kevin Stefanski took over the Browns in 2020, Cleveland ranks fifth in terms of air yards per throw (8.2). That level of aggression can work if the roster is set to excel in such an offense, which is why their immediate fate rests in the hands of the player who is available at No. 2 overall in April.
Ward is a dynamic athlete who can move around and extend plays, while Sanders is more of a calming presence with the potential to be a highly efficient professional passer in short order.
Both skill sets are more than capable of winning at a high level in this league, but when it comes to high-pedigree QBs, it’s been efficiency that has proven successful. Since 2020, here is the breakdown in terms of win rate by top-5 pick rookies:
- When completing 75% of their passes: 11-3 (78.6%)
- When not completing 75% of their passes: 37-80 (31.6%)
That’s obviously a high bar to clear, but it’s a path that Sanders has a much clearer path to, especially because his strengths would likely result in Stefanski changing his play-calling stripes a bit while the raw talent of Ward could result in a very aggressive 2025. If you want to drop that threshold a touch, the results are pretty similar:
- When completing 71% of their passes: 20-8 (71.4%)
- When not completing 71% of their passes: 28-75 (27.2%)
Jerry Jeudy and David Njkou give this offense the potential to produce with competent quarterback play and if the incoming rookie can keep the offense on the field (32nd in third down conversion rate last season at 29.5%), there’s a chance this team is much more competitive in 2025.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys will lose 12 games in 2025, positioning them to draft Texas QB Arch Manning in the 2026 NFL Draft
Dallas will struggle to reach six wins under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer.
Following a 7-10 record in 2024, the team faces several challenges, including limited salary cap space and a reluctance to sign free agents. These issues are likely to leave the Cowboys with a high draft pick in 2026, setting the stage for them to target Arch Manning.
The season could get off to a rocky start, much like in 2024, with a significant holdout from star linebacker Micah Parsons as he negotiates a long-term extension. Parsons could miss most of training camp, similar to CeeDee Lamb, and may not have enough time to familiarize himself with new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus’ system.
Although the Cowboys will play a third-place schedule, their designated divisions — NFC North and AFC West — each produced three playoff teams in 2024. Dallas also faces four tough divisional matchups against the Eagles and Commanders.
Home struggles are likely to persist, with AT&T Stadium hosting formidable opponents such as the Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, and Vikings. Additionally, the Cowboys face challenging road trips to Detroit and Denver.
Denver Broncos
Jaleel McLaughlin runs for 1,000 yards and catches 50 passes, something no AFC running back accomplished in 2024
We know what Sean Payton did with Alvin Kamara during his time in New Orleans, but entering 2024, we weren’t sure how much of that script would come with him to Denver.
Was he maximizing the tools he had or was it a scheme he loved that the Saints were built around?
As it turns out, it was the latter. With a rookie QB and a committee backfield, Broncos running backs ranked seventh in routes, fourth in targets, and fourth in receptions. Those are impressive marks all things considered, and with McLaughlin angling for a lead role, his usage could/should spike behind the offensive line that finished the regular season ranked as our top unit in the NFL.
There were four running backs in 2024 (minimum 100 carries) who project to be the featured back in 2025 and reached the 40-13 club (40% of carries gained 5+ yards and 13% gained 10+). The names on that list?
- Derrick Henry: 42.2% and 13.8%
- Jahymr Gibbs: 41.2% and 16.4%
- Bucky Irving: 41.1% and 13%
- McLaughlin: 40.7% and 14.2%
When it comes to raw reception count, Payton’s scheme is a crutch. Denver RBs owned the fifth-lowest average depth of target in 2024 (-1.2 yards), as they essentially used the passing game as an extension of the ground game, creating a highly efficient situation.
Denver will need to control the tempo in 2025 to have any chance at returning to the postseason (their division is talented and they also face Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels); I fully expect McLaughlin to be their choice for the best way to make that happen.
Detroit Lions
For just the second time since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970, a team finishes consecutive regular seasons with a +200 point differential
The 2024 Lions scored 564 points and allowed 342 (+222), resulting in a point differential that was 62 points clear any other team during the regular season, a level of domination that is difficult to overstate.
And I like it to continue in a way that we haven’t seen outside of the 1975-76 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Detroit finished with the league’s top-ranked offense per our Offense+ grading metric (in fact, their 94.2 mark was the best since Green Bay in 2020) despite losing Aidan Hutchinson for the season in Week 6.
Sack rate when not blitzing:
- Weeks 1-6: 7.1% (11th)
- Rest of season: 3.5% (31st)
Where are the holes in this offense? Jared Goff played at the peak of his powers in 2024, but it was his third straight season ranking as a top-six signal caller by QB+, and the talent at his disposal is only going to improve as the Sam LaPorta/Jameson Williams/Jahmyr Gibbs trio develops.
We have the Lions being defense-heavy in April at the NFL Draft and could inflate their point differential with home games against the Cowboys, Giants, and Browns this year. This fan base wants a different end to their season — only time will tell on that front, but their dominance in 2024 looks to be no fluke and could well be repeated this season.
Green Bay Packers
2025 Jordan Love looks like 2024 Jared Goff and earns him an invite to the MVP ceremony
Love now has over 1,100 pass attempts on his resume and is ready to make a tremendous leap.
Love’s 2024 season ended how it started and that is with a sub-76.0 QB+ grade against the Eagles. In a perfect world, he produces at a higher level against the best defenses in the sport, but I’m more interested in the macro over the micro for a player entering his age-26 season.
Love’s 2024 Passing Profile
- Weeks 1-11: 9.1-yard average depth of throw, 4.3% interception rate
- 9.4-yard aDOT when blitzed
- Weeks 12-18: 8.4-yard average depth of throw, 0% interception rate
- 6.5-yard aDOT
For me, that looks like QB puberty – the first portion of last season being the awkward pimple stage and the late season run showcasing growth into a man. More accurately, “the” man.
Josh Jacobs made waves this offseason in saying that the Packers need a true WR1 and they might well address the position with the 23rd overall pick (we sent Missouri’s Luther Burden III to Lambeau in a recent mock). Regardless, we are talking about a quarterback who showed us the ability to play within himself down the stretch of the 2024 regular season and he gets the benefit of playing a third-place schedule in 2025.
We graded the Packers as a top-10 offensive line and with a plus running game, that positions Love for a monster fifth season.
Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen were the QBs with consistently strong running back play behind a top-10 offensive line ranking per our metrics – they were all invited to the MVP honors ceremony, a fate that could well await Love in 12 short months.
Houston Texans
Nico Collins gives us our third WR triple crown in five years (we had three in the first 50 years post-merger)
In nine of his 13 healthy games, Collins earned at least eight targets. If that rate sticks for a fully healthy season, it’s not crazy to think his fifth season could mirror what Ja’Marr Chase did in Year 4.
In those 13 games mentioned, Collins averaged 8.7 targets per game; if we only look at his highly involved outing, that number jumps to 9.9. If we carry over his per-target production from 2024 into 2025 at those levels of usage …
8.7 targets per game = 148-target season
- 103 catches
- 1,556 yards
- 11 touchdowns
9.9 targets per game = 169-target season
- 118 catches
- 1,777 yards
- 12 touchdowns
That second stat line would have ranked second in receptions, first in receiving yards, and tied for third in receiving touchdowns this past season. Given year-over-year variance, that exact stat line (one that we constructed with reasonable math) could get the job done. But what if 2025 C.J. Stroud looks more like the 2023 version than the 2024 one?
- 2023: Second of 29 qualifiers in EPA per dropback on the scoring side of the field
- 2024: 28 of 28 qualifiers in EPA per dropback on the scoring side of the field
Stroud’s QB+ grade dipped by 14 points in Year 2 after an encouraging rookie season in what was a very discouraging result, but we can’t just ignore the promise he showed in 2023, can we?
The math from above comes in a down Stroud season, one where Collins dealt with an injury for five games. There’s room for a lot of growth in his profile, and labeling him as 2024 Chase isn’t a stretch in the slightest.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts acquire a former Cooper Kupp or a former 49er receiver this offseason and Anthony Richardson’s star takes off
It’s been an underwhelming start to the career of the former fourth overall pick, but with just 15 starts under his belt, the bust talk needs to be delayed.
In addition to the mentioned receivers, Amari Cooper is likely to be available – there are plenty of weapons out there. The three I brought up are nice YAC threats to complement the down field abilities of the players already on this roster (Michael Pittman Jr. is viewed as the chain moving threat and even he ranks ahead of Tee Higgins and Terry McLaurin in yards per deep route over the past two seasons) and Richardson might not be as far away from quarterbacking an above average offense as it seems.
Yards Per Pass Since 2023
Throwing Left to the Slot: 5.5 (42nd of 44 qualifiers, behind Mac and Daniel Jones)
All Other Throws: 8.1 (13th, better than Jordan Love and Dak Prescott)
Richardson is not a perfect quarterback and has a glaring flaw in terms of decision making – if a move is made to solidify that position on the field, it gives him the potential to access his other tools.
Lamar Jackson was thought to be the MVP, Jared Goff was an MVP finalist, and Sam Darnold was on the list for most surprising QBs in the league – they were all top-5 in yards per play-action attempt a season ago. Richardson ranked 12th (just behind Josh Allen and ahead of Joe Burrow) in that regard and should continue to thrive in those spots with an elite run game behind him and, in this scenario, a receiver core that can match up with almost any.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence posts the best QB+ of his career and guides the Jaguars to 11+ wins for the first time since George W. Bush was in office
Before his season ended prematurely, Lawrence posted a 64.5 QB+ in 2024, the second straight season of decline for the former top overall pick. However, Brian Thomas Jr. (87-1,282-10) showed signs of stardom and should help reverse that trend sooner rather than later.
Team WR YAC leaders, 2024:
- Bills: 6.3 YAC per reception (13 wins, No. 2 seed)
- Ravens: 5.9 (12 wins, No. 3 seed)
- Chiefs: 5.8 (15 wins, No. 1 seed)
- Lions: 5.4 (15 wins, No. 1 seed)
- Rams: 5.1 (10 wins, No. 4 seed)
- Broncos: 5.1 (10 wins, No. 7 seed)
- Jaguars: 5.0 (four wins, No. 5 pick)
As you can see, Jacksonville is an outlier, and with the tools to repeat this level of success, a turnaround is certainly possible (the average QB+ for the starter on the six offenses ranking ahead of the Jags was 85.8, 6.3 points ahead of Lawrence’s career-high).
This strength could be further highlighted by hiring Liam Coen. Last season, he was the architect that helped Baker Mayfield have a career year — he dialed back Mayfield’s aDOT by 18.6%, and he thrived on those short passes (under 10 air yards):
- Short pass passer rating: second (112.8, behind only Lamar Jackson)
- Short pass completion percentage: second (79.5%, behind only Tua Tagovailoa)
- Short pass TD%: second (6.8%, behind only Jackson)
Lawrence’s yards per deep pass have increased each season of his career (8.5 as a rookie, followed by 10.9, 11.4, and 13.0 in his 10 games last year), giving this offense the ability to challenge defense at every level.
Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice finishes inside the top 10 in receiving yards in 2025
The Chiefs being in yet another Super Bowl is all the more remarkable when you remember how decimated their new-look wide receiver room was in 2024. Hollywood Brown and Rice never played a game together, with the latter seeing his season end in Week 4 with an LCL injury.
The good news is that Rice’s estimated recovery timeline of four months gives him plenty of time to ramp up for the 2025 season, suggesting he shouldn’t experience a significant lag in performance. At the time of his injury, Rice ranked 12th with 288 receiving yards but also had the fifth-highest target rate (33%) among wide receivers.
By now, we know Travis Kelce will be on some type of maintenance plan that reduces his regular season production to preserve him for the playoffs. Brown and DeAndre Hopkins are both free agents, which could lead to another thin wide receiver room next season. All that shapes up to have Rice serve as Patrick Mahomes’ top target next regular season, allowing him to deliver the type of production he was headed for in 2024.
Las Vegas Raiders
Aidan O’Connell gives this team a chance to post their second winning season since 2017
The Raiders won just four games a season ago, matching their lowest output in a decade, but this team might be closer to a respectable record than you’d assume.
Over the past three seasons, the Raiders haven’t been good, but it’s been as much a failure to close as anything. Over that stretch, they are the eight worst team in games decided by five or fewer points (7-12), coin-flip games that often define a season.
What if O’Connell is the answer? What if Ashton Jeanty is landed with the sixth overall pick and this offense gains stability at a position that was a glaring weakness a season ago? What is the last month of the 2024 season that is predictive as to the upside of this offensive line?
There are obviously a lot of “what if’s” around this team, but O’Connell was QB20 by out QB+ grading system last season in limited work and with relatively underwhelming pieces around him. Brock Bowers appears to be a difference maker at the tight end position that will elevate this passing game for years to come and if the ground game provides balance, expecting the Raiders to flip the script in some of those close games isn’t unreasonable.
Of course, the ceiling is only so high given the division in which they play, but they do get an extra home game this season and their non-divisional home slate (Jaguars, Titans, Cowboys, Giants, Browns, and Bears) is very manageable.
Looking back at Vegas’ 2024 schedule, how many games did you expect them to win? They largely took care of the games we gave them a chance in and I expect the number of those games to increase with the level of play from this team to also increase.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert throws for 1,000 more yards
After four seasons of a pass-first offense, Justin Herbert saw significantly more support from his run game and defense in 2024. Jim Harbaugh unsurprisingly turned Los Angeles into a run-first identity, with the Chargers recording the 10th-highest designed run rate (45.5%). In Herbert’s first four seasons (2020-23), the Bolts had the second-lowest designed run rate (38.2%).
However, Los Angeles began to alter that identity in the latter half of the season. From Week 11 on, the Chargers ranked 18th in designed run rate. Herbert finished the season with three consecutive games passing for at least 280 yards, matching his total from the first 14 games combined.
As a result, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Chargers lean more heavily on Herbert in 2025. That’s especially true if Los Angeles can add some passing game weapons after re-setting their salary cap by cutting Mike Williams and trading away Keenan Allen. Herbert’s 3,870 passing yards were his fewest in any healthy season of his career, but improved volume and efficiency could result in a much gaudier figure next year.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams go from first to worst in the NFC West
Los Angeles nearly pulled this off in the 2022 season and the 49ers did in 2024.
With Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp possibly on the move, a team that was walking a fine line to begin with could see their house of cards come crumbling down in a major way. It’s easy to project a significant dropoff on the offensive side of the ball (C+ grade in Offense+ last season, 11th best), and the writing is on the wall when it comes to the defense.
Sack Rates
- 2019-21: 8.1% (second)
- 2022-24: 6.4% (23rd)
Aaron Donald isn’t coming back and if the offense takes a step back, this flaw figures to be even more impactful as this team will require their defense to make more plays in 2025 than in recent seasons with the floor elevating Stafford under center.
We all know the value that the quarterback position holds and so it stands to reason that making the opponents’ QB uncomfortable is tied to success when it comes to defenses.
Lowest Sack Rates, 2024
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6.1% (record: 4-13)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 5.7% (record: 4-13)
- Carolina Panthers: 5.6% (record: 5-12)
- Chicago Bears: 5.3% (record: 5-12)
- Atlanta Falcons: 5.3% (record: 8-9)
Those teams all got below average quarterback play per our QB+ metric and they averaged just over five wins in 2025 – with a first place schedule coming their way and possible rebound seasons from Arizona/San Francisco, this team seeing their win total from 2024 be cut in half is very much within the range of outcomes.
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins fire coach Mike McDaniel and GM Chris Grier midseason
The Dolphins have been on a repeated cycle ever since the Dan Marino-Jimmy Johnson-Dave Wannstedt era ended in the early 2000s. A new coach comes in, the Dolphins succeed right away with a playoff berth, don’t win in playoffs, and then decline until the coach gets fired.
It happened with Tony Sparano and Adam Gase, basically happened with Brian Flores (minus missing the playoffs at 10-6), and Mike McDaniel is headed along the exact same path.
The Dolphins, who made the postseason in McDaniel’s first two seasons, took a major step back in 2024. Now they face an offseason in which they start over the cap by nearly $12 million, have four key defensive players as free agents, and a disgruntled star WR in Tyreek Hill. Not to mention no faith that Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy for 17 games.
But the major reason for this bold prediction is the owner may be (a slight “maybe” here) fed up. While surprising no one in keeping the Dolphins front office intact for another season, owner Stephen Ross did lay out major expectations, mainly that this franchise wins its first postseason game in 25 years.
I don’t think he waits that long. If the Dolphins start off slow again like in 2024, we will see a change before the team makes it back from Spain.
Minnesota Vikings
If there is a team to fall off a cliff like the 2024 49ers, it’s the Vikings
In 2024, San Francisco’s win total declined by six from the year prior, the result of injuries and underperformances, something that could well happen to Minnesota in 2025.
There’s no way to project injuries, but in terms of on-field performance, there are more than a few ways for this to go sideways in a loaded division. Before we even get into the on-field trajectory, the schedule looks to be daunting, especially at home
HOME OPPONENTS: Lions, Packers, Bears, Eagles, Commanders, Ravens, Bengals, and Falcons
Last season, 12 of the 14 playoff teams had at least two more regular season wins than losses at home (exceptions: Buccaneers and Rams), something that, at this moment in time, seems like an awfully lofty expectation for the ‘25 Vikings.
The blitz happy defense leads to a wide range of outcomes and while they were able to create turnovers, there is significant risk that comes in playing that style (the Giants, Panthers, Patriots, Browns, and Jets were all top-12 blitzing defenses in 2024). When Minnesota brought additional bodies, Minnesota allowed the eighth highest completion percentage, something that could put high levels of importance on J.J. McCarthy in his first pro season.
The Vikes got a better-than-expected season from Sam Darnold and that fueled a 6-1 record in games that entered the fourth quarter within seven points. What happens if they don’t get that and struggle to repeat their 13th place finish in Offense+?
The 2023 Vikings were 2-5 in such games.
The margins are so thin at this level and if the QB play takes a step back, this team could see their win total plummet in a hurry as a part of the best division in football.
New England Patriots
Drake Maye throws 30 touchdown passes and has the Patriots in the Wild Card discussion
If only we had seen this story before. A story that involves a top-five pick with a prototypical size that showed enough as a rookie to encourage the franchise to use a second straight top-five pick to double down on their bet on him.
Wait a minute …
Burrow saw his QB+ improve by 28.3% in Year 2 after drafting Ja’Marr Chase, transforming the Bengals from a four-win team into a Super Bowl threat.
I don’t think there’s a Chase-level receiver in this draft (heck, I’m not even suggesting that the Patriots are the ones to pounce on one of the two projected top-10 picks at the position), but with four picks inside the top 80 this April, New England could enter this season with significantly more talent on the offensive side of the ball than what they ended 2024 with.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints finish closer to the nine wins they had in 2023 than the five with which they finished in 2024
They have access to a top 10 pick and had their 2024 undone by injuries, making them a great pick to bounce back if they can run a little better in terms of health.
In 2024, no team had a greater difference between the QB+ ranking for their leader in pass attempts (QB11, ahead of Sam Darnold and Jordan Love) and their Offense+ mark (22nd, ranking just behind the Colts and ahead of the Panthers). New Orleans has talent at the skill position spots when healthy, and they could add to it in April. You don’t have to think Carr is elite, you just have to trust him to get the most out of those around him.
The Vikings averaged 8.8 wins per season under Kirk Cousins; that’s about where Carr checks in for me. If he’s healthy and the defense benefits from more offensive support (their Defense+ grade fell from 84.8 in 2023 to 71.6 in 2024), more wins than losses is an achievable 2025 goal.
They tied for the second-most losses in games decided by a field goal or less a season ago — Carr has won 58.7% of such starts over his career, and a little regression would go a long way.
New York Giants
New York wins a pair of divisional games and impacts the race for the title, even if they aren’t a true playoff threat
The Giants have ranked as a bottom-five team in Offense+ in four straight seasons, but they own the third overall pick, and any improvement on that side of the ball could show up in the standings as soon as 2025.
In 2024, the Giants went 1-8 in one-score games. Since 2010, that’s the seventh-worst season in such spots, though it hasn’t proven to be a very sticky rate year-over-year. The six teams that had a season worse than the 2024 Giants won just one of 36 one-score games (2.8%), but their combined win rate in such games the season following their disaster year was 44.4%.
New York Jets
The Jets defense returns to top-10 for under Steve Wilks
New York struggled on both sides of the ball in 2024 and while the offensive foundation is in question, the defense should be counted on to bounce back.
Defense+ Grades
- 2024: 75.5 (C)
- 2023: 92.1 (A-, fifth-best single season since 2019)
- 2022: 85.4 (B)
In 2023, the Jets were the fifth-best defense at creating pressure without blitzing (37.8%, 4.5 percentage points better than league average), but their rate declined to 33.3% (0.8 points better than league average), ranking them 11th in the league.
We are currently projecting a pair of EDGE players to come off the board in the Top-10 this April (Georgia’s Jalon Walker and Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart) and six in the first round – if the Jets can add some pedigree to a revamped scheme.
Wilks was with the 49ers in 2023, a season in which San Francisco ranked seventh in pressure rate while blitzing at the eighth-lowest rate. If he took this job, it’s because he likes the trajectory of this roster and with draft equity at his disposal, this unit should trend closer to what we saw two years ago.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are in the midst of a dynastic run
We touched on this potential once the clock hit 00:00 on Super Bowl Sunday and are very much sticking to it.
The foundation and production looks very much like the two most recent extended runs of excellence (Mahomes’ Chiefs and Brady’s Patriots) in an eerie way – with their QB and coach in place, the NFC appears destined to travel through the City of Brotherly Love.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers suffer their first losing season under Mike Tomlin
Pittsburgh was able to repeat their 10 wins from 2023 in 2024 despite a 6.4% decline in their Offense+. There is something to Mike Tomlin getting the most out of his players, but slow starts proved to be a death wish for every other AFC team in 2024, and that’s something that is hard to outrun.
AFC’s bottom teams in first-quarter point differential, 2024:
- New York Jets: -10 (5-12 record)
- New England Patriots: -16 (4-13 record)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: -21 (4-13 record)
- Cleveland Browns: -26 (3-14 record)
- Las Vegas Raiders: -30 (4-13 record)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: -64 (10-7 record)
The Steelers have to face the NFC North this season, home to the NFL’s top two first-quarter teams (Packers: +67, Vikings: +62). Pittsburgh’s overachieving and finishing second in the AFC North last season gives them a more difficult outlook for 2025, something that could end one of the more impressive streaks in modern-day sports.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers see 900 points scored across their 17 regular-season games, a threshold only the Lions and Bengals achieved in 2024
San Francisco’s defense has been a strength for years, but that wasn’t the case in 2024, and it might continue to be an issue (their Defense+ grade fell by 17.3% from 2023).
We don’t yet know what the offense will look like, but Brock Purdy being under center and Kyle Shanahan being the coach appear to be givens — that’s enough for me! In what some will consider a down year, Purdy finished 2024 ranked seventh in our QB+ metric on the back of elite efficiency (top five in net yards per pass and EPA per pressured dropback).
He’s proven himself at this level, and in this system, all the 49ers have to do is play all four quarters. In 2024, San Francisco was dead last in fourth-quarter point differential (-77 with 14 turnovers committed), a season after ranking second (+67 with seven turnovers). With a little more luck in the way of health and continued defensive struggles, the 2025 49ers could resemble the 2024 Bengals in terms of game scripts that favor whichever offense has the ball last.
This season, there are plenty of interesting opponents on San Francisco’s schedule. They are slated to host Michael Penix Jr., Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, and Trevor Lawrence with a new coach. The 49ers also travel to Indianapolis to face Anthony Richardson, another non-divisional game that could turn into a shootout (C.J. Stroud and Baker Mayfield are two others who host the 49ers who are as capable as anyone of putting 30+ points on the board).
To get to 900 points, we need nearly 53 points per week. We’ll see how the schedule lays out, but if they can avoid much in the way of weather concerns, that’s something that could happen given what we saw from this team in 2024.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks win 12+ games and host multiple playoff games
Seattle earned an 81.0 Defense+ grade during the 2024 regular season, the sixth-best in the NFL. They were the lone top-eight defense in our grading system that was left out of the postseason, and the other seven averaged 12.3 wins.
Seattle was 7-4 after a 3-3 start to the season, and all four of those losses came against playoff teams at home. If they can avoid the bad losses the way they did after the stumbles out of the gates in 2024, winning a dozen games for the second time in a decade is well within the range of outcomes.
2025 Opponents (non-divisional):
- Home: Texans, Colts, Saints, Buccaneers, and Vikings
- Away: Falcons, Panthers, Jaguars, Titans, Commanders, and Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers’ offense won’t miss a beat despite changing offensive coordinators again
Tampa Bay ranked third in Offense+ during the 2024 season, and they finished top five in pretty much every offensive stat category. As a result, former offensive coordinator Liam Coen was hired away by the Jacksonville Jaguars as their head coach. With Coen taking his talents to “DUVAALLLL,” there are plenty of questions about the Bucs’ offense and whether they can remain a top unit.
Tampa Bay has now had four offensive coordinators in four seasons (Byron Leftwich, Dave Canales, Coen, and now Josh Grizzard). While Coen is gone, they opted to promote Grizzard from passing game coordinator to OC and retain the entire staff, so there’s some continuity for Baker Mayfield and Co.
Given that the Bucs will be running the same system with largely the exact same pieces (assuming the rumblings of Chris Godwin re-signing are true), it’s very possible this offense will remain elite next season. The players and coaches rave about Grizzard, a Yale graduate who knows the scheme extremely well. Last season, he was in charge of the Bucs’ third-down offense, and Tampa Bay led the NFL in third-down conversion rate (50.9%).
With a very solid offensive line that looked excellent in the second half of the season, Baker Mayfield coming off a career-year (finishing sixth in QB+), plus excellent weapons like Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, and potentially Godwin, don’t sleep on the Bucs just because Coen is no longer in town. Last offseason, many predicted the offense would fall off when Canales left to take the Panthers’ head coaching job and look what happened.
Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears more than doubles his career rushing totals (765 yards and six touchdowns) in a Year 3 breakout
With a pair of free agents on the offensive line and potentially a new quarterback under center, this situation is going to look drastically defense and given that we graded this line 28th, any change should be viewed as a net positive.
When it comes to the player himself, Spears has shown well in his limited work through two years. During his time in the NFL, 59 running backs have at least 150 carries and the leaderboard in our custom Elusive Ranking metric tells an interesting story:
- De’Von Achane
- Christian McCaffrey
- Bucky Irving
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- James Conner
- Spears
While his star is on the rise, Tony Pollard has seen his elusive grade decline by 26% over the past two seasons from the two prior. This franchise has seen their win total decline in three straight seasons and is at rock bottom – as they begin the rebuild, they figure to give Spears every opportunity to prove himself now that he is halfway through his rookie deal.
Tennessee ranked 27th in pass rate over expectation in 2024 and assuming that we see more of the same in 2025, why can’t his Year 3 look a lot, statistically, like what Brian Robinson did with a rookie signal caller (799 yards and eight scores)?
Washington Commanders
The Commanders fail to win 10 games after winning 12 in Jayden Daniels’ rookie campaign (not to mention two playoff victories)
Washington was the ninth team in the 17-game regular season era to win 11+ games despite holding the lead for under 57.5% of their offensive snaps, and unless Jayden Daniels is ready to be a perennial MVP contender, that paints an ominous picture for 2025.
Of the other eight teams on the list, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes accounted for two of them. They combined to win 28 of 34 games (82.4%) in the preceding season, a rate that is obviously phenomenal. The other six? They held a 43-59 record (42.2%) in their encore season.
Daniels was great in his first season, but is he on that Allen/Mahomes level already? Maybe, but if he’s not there quite yet, Washington could regress in the standings in a meaningful way.
Per Defense+, the Commanders had a very average unit (17th). The Seahawks and Dolphins both had defenses that graded better this past season and failed to qualify for the postseason despite a QB who ranked top 15 in QB+.
It’s very possible that, in the short term at least, the 2024 Commanders are as good as it gets, something that will clash with what the public believes after Washington excelled this past year.
