Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will make his 113th start of his career in Baltimore, and he will be an underdog for just the 12th time (second time in as many weeks). As good as Mahomes is, the Baltimore Ravens have been equally good at home this season and that helps justify sportsbooks labeling them as the favorite. Lets dive right into the NFL betting trends.
NFL Betting Trends for Ravens vs. Chiefs
As you’re looking to make your bets for the AFC Championship Game, here are some betting trends to consider for the Ravens at home and Mahomes as an underdog.
Baltimore Ravens at home this season
- Record: 7-3 (6-4 ATS ,overs are 5-4-1)
- Point differential: +151
- Top five defense in yards/attempt, TD rate, sack rate
Should bettors be fading Kansas City’s star or be willing to take on the team that has looked like the class of the league since mid-October?
Patrick Mahomes: Underdog Betting Trends
Before we dive into the specific bets for this weekend, let’s take a look at what has transpired in the first 11 instances in which the Chiefs have been tabbed as an underdog in the Mahomes era.
- ATS: 9-1-1 (90%)
- Avg. Cover Margin: +7.1 points
- Overs: 8-3 (72.7%)
- Avg. Over Margin: +13.9 points
- Points Scored: 34.6 points per game
- Points Allowed: 30.5 points per game
The lone against the spread (ATS) loss came last season in a home game against the Bills in Week 6 (24-20 loss as a three-point underdog). The push was the instant classic in 2018 against the Rams, a 54-51 loss that saw Mahomes and Jared Goff combine for 891 passing yards and 10 touchdowns.
How fun would a rematch be in the Super Bowl?
In those 11 games, Mahomes has been nothing short of special. His average numbers:
- 23.6 completions
- 68% complete
- 304.4 passing yards
- 3.1 touchdown passes
- 0.9 interceptions
- 21.5 rushing yards
Now that you have what history has to say about this specific spot for Mahomes and the Chiefs, it’s time to apply them to the current betting board.
Patrick Mahomes: Conference Championship Bets
*These lines will move as we approach kickoff. Make sure you do your best to line shop, especially in the prop markets that can vary from book to book. If you have a different line or a different bet all together, don’t hesitate to reach out to @KyleSoppePFN on Twitter.
Betting Line: Chiefs (+3.5), Over/Under 44.5 points
The numbers above point to a Chiefs cover and an over ticket making sense, and as we drill down on this specific spot, that lean only gets stronger.
In five of those 11 games as an underdog, the projected total was under 50 points. Kansas City has not only covered in all five of those instances, they’ve won all five games outright.
MORE: Chiefs vs. Ravens Prediction, Odds, and Picks for the AFC Championship
In those five games, Kansas City has won by an average of 6.6 ppg (average cover margin: 9.4), and they’ve been doing it by putting points on the board. By scoring 31.2 points per game, over tickets haven’t had much to sweat about — overs are 4-1 in games like this (average over margin: 10.1 ppg).
Pick: Chiefs and Over
Betting Line: Chiefs Over/Under 20 points
We know that the Chiefs are 9-1-1 ATS in the Mahomes era as an underdog, and the only time they failed to score 23 points was that ATS loss. In fact, they’ve reached 27 points in nine of these 11 games — a number that puts KC’s team total very much in play if you’re backing the road team this weekend.
Pick: Over
Betting Line: First Half — Chiefs (+2.5), Over/Under 22.5 points
If these trends are going to continue cashing, we’re likely to know it early on. In these 11 games, there have been an average of 33.7 points scored in first halves (27+ points in nine of those games).
Much like the full game trends, if you’re projecting points to be put on the board, you’re inherently betting on Mahomes. In these 11 measured games, only three times were the Chiefs trailing entering the locker room at halftime.
Pick: Chiefs and Over
Betting Line: Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 240.5 Passing Yards
If you just want to box score watch, the “over” lines up to be a strong play. Mahomes has cleared this number in nine of 11 underdog spots, but if you dig a little deeper, betting the under comes into focus.
The time of year has impacted Mahomes’ efficiency in these spots. As an underdog …
- Games played before Thanksgiving: 9.3 yards per attempt
- Games played after Thanksgiving: 7.7 yards per attempt (down 17.2%)
Slicing an 11-game sample size down further is obviously risky, so let’s take a look at this matchup in the scope of this season. For 2023, the Ravens rank fifth in time of possession, which could serve as a skeleton key.
- Mahomes vs. top 12 TOP offenses: 33.4 attempts per game
- Mahomes vs. all other opponents: 39.0 attempts per game
Only once this season has a quarterback cleared this yardage number against the Ravens when throwing 40 or fewer passes. That instance? Brock Purdy in Week 16, a game in which 26.3% of his passing yards came in his final drive after the game was already in hand with San Francisco trailing by 21.
This Chiefs team is more positioned to win without a big Mahomes game than years past, and that could well be the case in this spot.
Pick: Under (this number has been falling since open)
Betting Line: Mahomes Over/Under 1.5 TD Passes
In these underdog spots, Mahomes is averaging 5.3 red-zone pass attempts per game, a number that puts him in a position to threaten the over (one TD every 3.5 red-zone pass attempts for his career).
Worried about the quality of this Ravens defense? They were a top-12 unit this regular season in scoring, passing, yards per attempt, and pass TD rate, so the concern is warranted.
MORE: Updated Super Bowl 58 Odds
In five of his 11 career games as an underdog, Mahomes has played a defense checking those boxes five times. In those games, he’s racked up 14 touchdown passes (over 1.5 in four of five).
Pick: Over
Betting Line: Mahomes Over/Under 0.5 Interceptions
Let’s keep pulling the thread of underdog Mahomes against strong defenses. In those five games, he’s been intercepted just once on 159 attempts. His postseason aDOT is more than 8% lower than his regular-season number.
- Career INT rate on balls thrown 15+ yards: 3.6%
- Career INT rate on balls thrown less than 15 yards: 1.2%
Pick: Under
Betting Line: Mahomes Over/Under 25.5 Rushing Yards
The narrative of Mahomes running wild in the postseason has some truth to it. But his runs are schemed up, and the ability to escape the defense can be matchup dependent.
Mahomes has been held under this number in seven of those 11 underdog games. He could well make it eight of 12 this weekend.
The Ravens hurry opposing quarterbacks at the second-lowest rate, preferring to sit back and force QBs to take their medicine. Mahomes has seven games on his 2023 résumé against bottom-12 defenses in hurry rate.
- No more than 20 rushing yards in five games
- 74.6% of rush yards have come when trailing
In Kansas City’s past three wins against defenses like this, Mahomes has totaled 29 rushing yards, 24 of which came on a run with a pump fake that resulted in a missed tackle instead of a run for no gain.
It’s very possible that Mahomes uses his legs in a way that decides this game. But from a yardage standpoint — combined with the kneel-down potential in a game where we’re projecting the Chiefs to have success — the risk outweighs the potential reward.
Pick: Under
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