Are you scouring the Internet or a recently crashed meteorite for ideal Week 15 NFL Survivor Pool picks? Winging it usually doesn’t get the job done. So, how should we strategize with an eye toward the rest of the season? Let’s talk survivor pool NFL betting strategy and optimal team picks.
NFL Week 15 Survivor Pool
Picking one team that is a virtual certainty to win each week sounds easy in theory. However, most NFL survivor pool rules dictate that you can’t select the same team twice.
Sometimes it’s best to lock in a nearly guaranteed win. Other times, it’s better to take a chance to preserve safer options for later. Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s walk through last week’s strategy and results.
Well, it’s been a great run. On Sunday, my primary pick — Seattle — suffered an upset home loss to the Panthers. A lot like that time an out-of-work panther came to my home upset and feeling spiritually lost. (Don’t worry, he’s now working as an investment banker.)
The 7-5 Seahawks losing to 4-8 Carolina? And the Panthers still in the playoff hunt?
It wasn’t supposed to happen. But that’s why the games are played, rather than simulated in some kind of alt-universe matrix. DJ Moore got hurt early, Sam Darnold completed only 14 passes for 120 yards, and Seattle posted 24 points.
But Carolina’s key to victory was timely defense and running the ball 46 times for 223 yards (4.8 ypc). An impressively executed game plan.
Now, before we get to my Week 15 picks, not all is doom and gloom. I made three backup Survivor recommendations last week for those who’d already used the Seahawks this season, or who (wisely) disagreed with my advice.
I pushed the Bills and Cowboys, and while both victories were hard fought, given how deep we are into this season, picking two healthy teams versus two slightly to significantly lesser road teams made sense. (And yes, I’m saying the Jets are “slightly” worse than Buffalo.)
Additionally, I took a somewhat unusual step of advising readers not to play Tennessee in a seemingly safe home tilt against the Jags, suggesting competitors save the Titans until they face Houston at home in Week 16:
“I can’t think of a more favorable survivor play for that week, particularly with Houston’s strength (Dameon Pierce) likely getting neutralized by one of Tennessee’s greatest strengths (a stout run defense).”
And now, my top pick for Week 15, plus the usual backup options if you’ve already chosen my No. 1 preference, or if you simply don’t buy into what I’m selling.
Washington Commanders
In August, I noted two teams I wanted to save for solid Week 15 matchups. The Washington Commanders were one of them.
So far, I’ve used up (as my primary weekly selection) the 49ers, Bengals, Bills, Chargers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Giants, Jaguars, Packers, Patriots, Rams, Ravens, Seahawks, and Vikings.
I’m still saving the Chiefs. No other remaining team has more than seven wins. So if you’ve reached this stage, have one opponent left, and feel the need to take a fairly comfortable Kansas City victory over Houston, then don’t let me stop you.
But I’m going all in on Washington in a home rematch against the divisional rival they tied two weeks ago: the descending Giants.
MORE: Early Anytime TD Scorer Predictions Week 15
And “descending” is key. Since Week 8, New York has only one win. You read that correctly. Despite their hype, their only win during this stretch was 24-16 against Houston, which to date still has only one victory.
Oh, and in that game, the Texans moved the ball into the Giants’ red zone on four separate drives — all in the fourth quarter — culminating in merely six points and two turnovers. Yes, New York deserved the win. But at the same time . . . they barely beat the NFL’s worst team.
Since Week 8, and aside from that Texans contest, the hobbled and overworked Saquon Barkley has mustered only 205 rushing yards on 73 carries. My computer calculator says that’s 2.8 yards per carry. Barkley is their offensive engine. Yet, he’s been sputtering since before Halloween.
I’ve got the Commanders winning this one convincingly, thanks to a more well-rounded backfield and passing attack, as well an above-average run defense. A final score of 30-14, or something thereabouts. Despite the narrow point spread, Washington is a fantastic Week 15 survivor play.
New Orleans Saints
If you’ve been saving the New Orleans Saints (not sure why you would) and don’t trust the Commanders, then this week might be their best shot at another win ’til next September.
The opposing Falcons will roll with rookie Desmond Ridder. There is a high probability that Ridder will struggle at least moderately, surrounded by one of the league’s worst-performing receiving corps.
Of course, some of that might be due to Marcus Mariota and Atlanta’s more conservative approach. Drake London is a future star. Yet, Ridder and the Falcons will face an uphill battle in New Orleans against an often decent-to-good defense that might get Marshon Lattimore back.