The NFL is rapidly approaching the postseason. Three prime-time football games await us on Saturday, including a showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. With Week 15 already here, this week features multiple showdowns with Super Bowl contenders.
We’re breaking down the latest 2023 Super Bowl odds for Week 15. Let’s dive into our AFC-centric breakdown of the Super Bowl odds for the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, and Los Angeles Chargers.
Latest NFL Super Bowl Odds Heading Into Week 15
We’re here to make sure you’re locking in the best payoffs for all your NFL betting picks. Each franchise has a varying record, but as you can see below, they don’t all offer the same betting odds. Our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook are my go-to, thanks to their favorable odds and betting options.
For example, a $100 bet on the team with the best Super Bowl odds — Buffalo at +300 — would pay a $300 profit if they win Super Bowl LVII. Let’s take a look at the latest 2023 NFL Super Bowl odds and break down the teams whose odds present the best value.
Buffalo Bills (+350)
From the surface, the Bills have earned their perch as the Super Bowl favorite. They’re 10-3, beat the Kansas City Chiefs, and have won four straight games. Having an MVP candidate in Josh Allen is certainly another positive that has contributed to their standing.
But I don’t agree with it. The Bills have been slogging through close games against mediocre teams over the last month. Losing edge-rusher Von Miller with a torn ACL will be limiting for the defense in the playoffs, and Allen’s own passing performance has dipped significantly in the six weeks since suffering an elbow injury.
Allen has thrown for more than 223 yards only twice in that span, and he’s completed less than 60% of attempts in half of his games. He’s been far more effective as a rusher when it matters the most. There’s no question he’s one of the most difficult quarterbacks to ever defend because he has a solution for every situation he faces.
Buffalo is an undoubtedly strong contender for the Super Bowl thanks to their No. 4 scoring offense and No. 2 scoring defense. The offense has been more disjointed under offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey than it was under Brian Daboll, and injuries to Allen and Miller will eventually prove costly in the playoffs. However, in Week 15 against Miami, it may not matter.
A win against Miami puts immense pressure on their division foes and clinches their playoff spot. Favored by a touchdown this week, I think Buffalo wins, but I’d hesitate to make bigger proclamations based on this matchup. Buffalo should win, but Cincinnati and Kansas City will test them more in January.
Miami Dolphins (+2500)
Can the Dolphins finally turn around their luck in Buffalo despite being major underdogs? They certainly have some work to do after two ugly losses in a row. We knew Miami was going to be tested more against San Francisco and Los Angeles after winning five games against bad teams, and they didn’t respond well.
Some of that was a result of playing teams as talented or more talented than themselves and coaching staffs finally adjusting to Miami’s offense. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has done an excellent job overcoming personnel issues along his offense all season long, but his strategy of hunting big plays over the middle of the field needs an adjustment immediately. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa also needs to take what’s given to him more often instead of maintaining his league-leading and absurdly high 8.7 yards per attempt average.
Miami can beat Buffalo again if they’re more effective at controlling the ball and capitalizing on the spacing underneath that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle create. They can also put Buffalo on their heels by having Tagovailoa move the pocket more often, especially to his weak side.
It’s not imperative Miami wins this week in terms of their playoff hopes, as they can still reach 10 wins with the Packers, Patriots, and Jets on their schedule. However, their Super Bowl odds won’t increase if they lose to another elite opponent. The Dolphins have a good but not great roster, and Tagovailoa is entering a defining stretch of the season, and how they respond matters.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3500)
We saw a lot of credit given on social media to the Chargers’ coaching staff for defending the Dolphins’ offense last week. They deserved some, but Miami was also to blame for continuing to utilize the same vertical concepts we’ve seen from them already this season. Also, the Chargers just played the best game of their season, and their players deserve a lot of credit for winning man coverage against elite receivers and for their four-man rush to win without Joey Bosa.
Football can be as simple as having a four-man rush that wins and will stifle a vertical passing game almost every time. That’s what happened Sunday night in Week 14 for the Chargers’ defense. However, the offense was a much more encouraging story.
Getting both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen healthy was enormous for the unit. There’s been recent hand-wringing over quarterback Justin Herbert’s impact level throughout this season, and as usual, the answer is somewhere in the middle. It’s hard to be great when the team’s offensive line and receiver room are injured and bad, but I also don’t think Chargers’ offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is committing a crime by keeping the unit conservative.
Lombardi keeps things simple for Herbert by relying on 21 personnel and is more traditional. We saw the same thing while Herbert was at Oregon, and it’s probably for a reason. Herbert must be comfortable in this offense, and he’s able to avoid tapping into the recklessness that caused him to be questioned more as a prospect as his collegiate career progressed.
This Chargers team is still very talented, and these odds are underselling their raw ability. Their consistency has been a major issue. If they can be healthy for any lengthy amount of time, they’re a big threat to upset an AFC favorite. Herbert is very good and has excellent weapons around him, and the defense has enough star power to put together strong performances.
With a 55% chance to make the playoffs, the ball is in the Chargers’ court. Get ready for a long offseason of discourse if Herbert can’t guide this team to the postseason once again.
Tennessee Titans (+6000)
We know what the Titans are, and at 7-6 with three straight losses, they’ve reached their low upside despite winning the AFC South. We knew the division would be bad, but the Titans hitting a sudden wall was unexpected. They have a bottom-four passing offense and bottom-two passing defense, which is a massive drop-off from prior years.
This roster is in desperate need of a retool. Many were surprised when general manager Jon Robinson was fired, but he’s missed far more lately than he’s hit, leaving this staff with an incredibly thin roster. Tennessee still presents a unique problem for opponents because their running game is so effective, and they’re an elite run-stopping defense.
Facing the Chargers is a tough task since their Los Angeles counterpart is built in the opposite manner. Derrick Henry should feast against their awful run fits, but otherwise, the Chargers’ offense should be able to move the ball through the air all game long. Projecting to the playoffs, the Titans have no Super Bowl shot, but they can upset a top seed in the right weather and game script.
Their ball-control offense can create the occasional big passing play as Ryan Tannehill is back to playing efficiently. However, the biggest question mark is whether they can force turnovers and end the opposing offense’s drives. Ranking 23rd in turnover rate this season, it’s not been a consistent backbone of the unit, and that’s a problem for their Super Bowl chances and playoff outlook.