The opening day of Wild Card Weekend is here. And with that, a final look at our NFL Wild Card round predictions and picks for both games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Wild Card Round Predictions and Picks
Just like during the NFL regular season, the playoffs feature the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 14
- Start time: 4:30 p.m. ET
The point spread has ticked downward from -10 on Tuesday. In other words, the markets are pretty locked in.
I’m still betting on Seattle to cover, in large part because they have less to lose. Yes, the Niners should win. Of every first-round game, this one seems to be the easiest moneyline call.
San Francisco possesses an elite run defense, holding opponents to the fewest yards per carry (3.4). For context, only two other teams are below 4.1. Yeah, that’s the definition of elite. Their defense is also tied for first with 20 interceptions, has the third-most QB hits (121), and is yielding the fewest points (267).
They’ve defeated Seattle twice. Surely they can do it again, even with third-string rookie Brock Purdy at QB. “Mr. Irrelevant” has been a revelation on the field — an unheralded emergency backup who’s exceeded every conceivable expectation outsiders placed on him.
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But the 49ers aren’t built merely to win one playoff game. There is a window to begin a mini-dynasty. Would we be shocked if this franchise netted two Super Bowls in the next three years? Probably not.
And yes, this means that while they should win, and while they could win handily, they also have the most to lose. They’re one Purdy injury away from Josh Johnson. Deebo Samuel has missed time. George Kittle has missed multiple games for four straight seasons.
They’re also one Christian McCaffrey injury — the same McCaffrey who’s arguably more injury-prone than most starting RBs — away from an Elijah Mitchell-or-bust backfield (with all respect to Jordan Mason). And Mitchell is more injury prone than McCaffrey.
The undercurrent for this game consists of two teams with different realistic expectations. The Seahawks weren’t supposed to be here. They’ll play as if there’s no tomorrow. San Francisco will need to balance victory with self-preservation. They can’t afford to over-work McCaffrey. They don’t need to win by 30. They simply need to advance.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 14
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike Williams is officially out, and that doesn’t adequately explain why the Jaguars have shifted from one-point underdogs to 2.5-point underdogs. Of course, the Chargers needed more than the boom-bust Williams to topple the Jags on the road. They still need to figure out their running game.
What?
I know. They have one of the league’s best RBs in Austin Ekeler. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Chargers are averaging the third-fewest yards per carry (3.8). For all his greatness, Ekeler has been a bit of an enigma in his sixth NFL season.
Against the Browns and Rams, he racked up 295 rushing yards on a seemingly impossible 11.3 yards per carry. But against every other team in his other 15 games, the all-world RB has accumulated only 620 rushing yards on 3.5 yards per carry. He’s enduring a career-low 1.9 yards after contact on carries, and he’s broken only one tackle per 40.8 carries.
His previous worst broken-tackle rate was last year: one per 15.8 carries.
After the team vowed last summer to reduce Ekeler’s workload, he’s instead taken on a career-high 311 touches. His numbers suggest there’s a cost to this usage. Even his yards per reception (6.7) are more than two yards below his career average.
Ekeler will be the X-factor in this game. Not Williams. Not even Keenan Allen, although he’ll be critically important, of course. But if the Jags’ above-average run defense can keep Ekeler (and Joshua Kelley) in check on the ground, Jacksonville should not only cover, but win.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
Moneyline winner: Jaguars