We’ve gone 23-8 picking against the spread and 25-5-1 on moneylines the past two weeks. Here’s a final look at our NFL Week 14 predictions and picks for all 12 games, with the Bears, Colts, Commanders, Falcons, Packers, and Saints on byes. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 14 Predictions and Picks
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.
Buffalo Bills (-10) vs. New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
As you might remember from last week, I thought the Vikings would roll over the Jets. Credit Mike White, Garrett Wilson, Zonovan Knight, and a tough defense for keeping it close.
However, they were down double-digits in the third quarter and then again in the fourth. Minnesota’s barely middling defense does not rival Buffalo’s. White needed 57 pass attempts to stay within five points against the Vikes. I don’t see them staying within 10 of the (arguably) more balanced Bills.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
A major revenge game for the Bengals, who were embarrassed by these (almost) same Browns in Cleveland earlier this season. Deshaun Watson has returned to lead his team on a late-season playoff push. But I’ve got Cincy winning this one by 8+ points in an offensive explosion of nearly epic proportions (slight exaggeration).
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Dallas Cowboys (-17) vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
In six full contests with Dak Prescott at the helm, the 2022 Cowboys are averaging 37.2 points per game. On the season, the Chiefs lead all teams with 29.2 points per game.
Dallas easily could prevail by 30+ points today. Houston’s QB situation is arguably the worst in the league, and that includes Carolina. Barring an unexpectedly epic performance by rookie Dameon Pierce, I’m not giving the Texans much of a chance to score 10+.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys
Detroit Lions (-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This betting line speaks volumes. It has as much to do with Detroit’s electric offense (sixth-most points per game) as with Minnesota’s overweighted 10-2 record. Since Week 1, all of the Vikings’ wins have been by eight points or fewer. Four victories have come in the final minute or overtime.
So, this is a true toss-up.
That said, the Vikes are talented enough to expose the Lions’ biggest weaknesses. Consider that Minnesota’s last four outings have been against the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, and Jets — some of the league’s least-forgiving defenses.
But Detroit’s yielding the second-most yards per carry and rushing scores, as well as the sixth-most passing yards per game. Minnesota has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with their NFC North opponent, and I believe victory is likely.
Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings
Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Ryan Tannehill and Trevor Lawrence are both banged up. Earlier this week, I hedged on the line, picking the Jags to cover and the Titans to win. That remains the most sensible bet in a contest between two strong backfields, a high-end Tennessee run defense, and a flawed Tennessee pass defense.
In other words, there’s no clear understanding of how Jacksonville will break through. But they have the playmakers to hit their season average of 21-22 points, whether because Travis Etienne Jr. thrives and/or because Christian Kirk and Zay Jones expose the Titans’ secondary.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
Moneyline winner: Titans
New York Giants (+7.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Saquon Barkley has picked up only 61 scoreless yards on his last 22 receptions. Yes, he can help New York keep pace on the ground. But after publicly warning about his obscenely heavy volume and then seeing him struggle in recent weeks, it’s fair to wonder if defenses have figured out how to slow him down.
And that’s the key to betting on this contest. Philly will get its points — probably 26+. I don’t believe the Giants’ passing game can elevate its offense. That makes Barkley the X-factor — an overworked Barkley averaging only 3.3 yards per carry in his last five games.
Against-the-spread prediction: Eagles
Moneyline winner: Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
With Lamar Jackson’s injury prognosis decidedly not good, Tyler Huntley will lead the Ravens’ underperforming offense. Mark Andrews is still Mark Andrews. But I don’t trust Baltimore’s other receivers or its backfield, especially against a defense giving up the fifth-fewest yards per carry and third-fewest rushing scores.
Huntley was tested against Denver. I believe Pittsburgh on the road will be a bigger test. The Steelers have enough firepower to prevail.
Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Steelers
Denver Broncos (+9) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Have you run out of adjectives to describe the collapsing Broncos? So have I.
Amidst their injuries and generally poor play, it’s important to note that most successful dual-threat QBs have begun their often rapid regression around 30-31 years old. Russell Wilson is 34. The Chiefs will find a way to rebound after losing to the Bengals, and it won’t be pretty for a Denver franchise searching in vain for answers.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
A fascinating betting line. Can Brock Purdy do enough to help “lead” the Niners to victory? Backed by a near-elite backfield, great receivers, and an elite defense, I’d say absolutely — especially against the frequently underperforming Bucs with a ravaged offensive line. As long as Purdy isn’t forced to try to do too much, the 49ers should prevail by 5+.
Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Seattle escaped LA with a victory on Sunday. Facing off against the Panthers should prove a bit easier (not that Carolina is a walkover). But a home tilt against Sam Darnold and a barely mediocre defense? I like the Seahawks’ odds of winning by double-digits.
MORE: Seahawks Running Backs Are Adds Off the Waiver Wire in Week 14
And yes, we might wonder what will happen if the injured Kenneth Walker III can’t suit up. I’m not overly concerned. DeeJay Dallas is talented and versatile enough to go toe-to-toe with D’Onta Foreman if given the reps. Or the capable Travis Homer might take on the lead role against a defense giving up 4.8 yards per carry to opposing RBs.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Seahawks
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
I’m all-in on the Chargers taking this one — a must-win game for a team on the verge of falling behind in their playoff push. LA brings an underwhelming defense, but their offense should have its way against Miami, likely prevailing by 6+ as the two teams combine for 58+ points.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chargers
Arizona Cardinals (+2) vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Monday, Dec. 12
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
There are 20 or more reasons to take New England to win and cover. The 4-8 Cardinals? Not so much.
But the 6-6 Patriots are in trouble. Tough matchups against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills loom. This Arizona game arguably is their easiest remaining on the schedule.
Yet, the Cards have had DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown on the field together for only one game. Rookie Trey McBride will only get better, James Conner is healthy, and Kyler Murray remains one of the NFL’s best rushing QBs. Aside from missing Zach Ertz, this is one of the best teams the Cardinals could have hoped to field in Week 14.
It surely will be a tough battle. The Pats’ defense is legit. While the Cards’ defense is not, their offense is . . . or at least can be now that they’re almost fully charged. I like Arizona eking out the win.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
Moneyline winner: Cardinals