We’ve gone 36-21 picking against the spread and 40-16-1 on moneylines the past four weeks. Here’s a final look at our NFL Week 16 predictions and picks for the remaining 15 games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 16 Predictions and Picks
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our final assessments of how each game might proceed.
Chicago Bears (+8) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
The Weather Channel has educated society on numerous atmospheric matters, including the “bomb cyclone.” This Bears-Bills contest could feature conditions so icy/snowy/windy to make even Santa blush.
(And yes, Santa does exist.)
The potential partial neutralization of Buffalo’s superior passing attack should keep this game closer than expected, as their good-not-elite run defense should have trouble slowing Justin Fields.
The clock will move fairly quickly in this one, resulting in fewer plays, fewer scoring opportunities, and a narrower outcome.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Bills
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Another game featuring rough weather. The point spread has shrunk one point in the past few days. I like the trend since I firmly believe the 6-8 Browns hold the edge in this one.
New Orleans just gave up 8.2 yards per carry to Tyler Allgeier, despite facing a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Neither their offense nor their defense should instill in the Browns, especially with Chris Olave (and Jarvis Landry, for what it’s worth) sidelined.
Against-the-spread prediction: Browns
Moneyline winner: Browns
Kansas City Chiefs (-10) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
No snow, but temperatures that would make Mr. Freeze blush. (Side note: of every movie ever made, the one with George Clooney as Batman sits below the bottom.)
No doubt, the Chiefs are in the driver’s seat. But their defense has been exposed recently by the Broncos and Texans. While they’ll surely make adjustments, so will the win-desperate Seahawks. Expect a heavy dose of Kenneth Walker III and DK Metcalf to keep this one within a touchdown.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
A seven-point spread has been knocked down to three, in large part because of Ryan Tannehill’s injury. Should we worry about betting on the slumping Titans? Not exactly.
Even if we get a heavy dose of Malik Willis, that might be addition by subtraction. Houston probably already expected Derrick Henry to carry the load. But a mobile Willis behind center creates interesting dilemmas for a Texans defense yielding the sixth most yards per carry (4.9).
And Tennessee’s stout run defense should stop Royce Freeman or any other RB the Texans throw their way. This has the makings of a monster game for Henry and a surprisingly comfortable win for the defending AFC South champions.
Against-the-spread prediction: Titans
Moneyline winner: Titans
Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. New York Giants
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
What will the Vikings do for an encore? After breaking the NFL record for the greatest comeback in history, Minnesota is showing why they can lose to anyone in this league, as well as beat anyone in this league.
The Giants probably won’t be able to keep up, as long as Minnesota plays up to its potential, featuring a formidable backfield and top-five receiving corps. Contain offensive centerpiece Saquon Barkley with their normally solid run defense, and the Vikings could win by double digits.
Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings
New England Patriots (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Jakobi Meyers’ lateral would have made J.R. Smith blush. On the same day the Bengals won after trailing 17-0 to the Bucs, the Patriots clawed back from a 17-3 deficit to take a 24-17 lead . . . only to lose. Painfully.
Cincinnati is rounding into postseason form, while New England’s odds of reaching the playoffs just plummeted. They get the benefit of the doubt with this point spread because they’re playing at home and because line setters generally don’t underestimate head coach Bill Belichick.
Yet, it would be a minor miracle for these Patriots to shut down Cincy. Their best hope lies with a perfectly executed ground game. Doable, but also a risky bet.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
The point spread has narrowed by one point this week, as Lamar Jackson’s status solidified. The Ravens’ strong run defense matches up well against mobile rookie Desmond Ridder and his solid backfield.
Ridder also should have trouble exposing Baltimore through the air. The rookie is still acclimating to the league, and this contest — scheduled to be played in freezing temperatures — is not an ideal setup for Ridder and a mostly lacking receiving corps.
Against-the-spread prediction: Ravens
Moneyline winner: Ravens
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
On the one hand, I happen to like Sam Darnold and DJ Moore in this one. The Lions’ pass D is among the league’s worst. On the other hand, Detroit boasts one of the best offenses, and a resurgent D’Andre Swift changes this team’s entire outlook.
I don’t want to overstate that. Jared Goff has been terrific. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been brilliant. Jameson Williams brings much-needed playmaking depth. Jamaal Williams is terrific near the goal line.
But a healthy Swift is one of the best, most complete RBs in the NFL, period. He’s averaging a sterling 5.5 yards per carry, in large part due to a league-leading 3.8 yards before contact. He’ll be a big key to the Lions winning this one by 6+ points.
Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Lions
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
When news of Jalen Hurts’ injury hit, the point spread for this game fluctuated wildly. It’s settled on -4.5, up from -1.5 on Monday. Dallas certainly now has a huge advantage over a divisional rival that probably cares more about keeping their core guys healthy than winning a game they don’t absolutely have to win.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
The 49ers are surrendering the fewest yards per carry in the NFL (3.4). They’re also giving up the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt and are tied for the second-fewest passing TDs yielded.
As well as the Commanders have played since starting 1-4, they are a middling team that has performed above expectations. Taylor Heinicke seems entrenched as the starter, yet he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to become a true franchise QB.
San Francisco should be able to overpower Washington on the ground while controlling field position for most of the game, resulting in a 9+ point victory.
Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Another cold-weather game with massive postseason implications. The loser is essentially finished. The winner will bolster their odds significantly, particularly if at least three teams among the Chargers, Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets lose.
The Raiders are finally seemingly healthy on offense. That might be great news if you bet on Vegas. But their defense has given up 21 passing TDs while collecting only four interceptions. There’s plenty of pop to this Steelers offense, and I believe they match up better against the Raiders than the Patriots did.
And a final thought: Franco Harris’s “Immaculate Reception” was 50 years ago this Friday. The last-second victory marked Harris’s first of many playoff games, as well as the Steelers’ first playoff win in franchise history. His final game in a Steelers uniform was also against the Raiders.
There’s an emotional symmetry to this game in light of Harris’s recent passing — an intensity that can’t be understated for the players taking the field.
Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Steelers
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
It’s been a streak-filled season for the Fins: a 3-0 start, followed by three straight losses, and then five consecutive victories. But three road games in 13 days against the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills proved too much.
On paper, they remain a playoff-caliber team. Green Bay has been too inconsistent to trust against such a high-powered offense, especially when yielding 5.0 yards per carry to the opposition. Miami should prevail by 6+.
Against-the-spread prediction: Dolphins
Moneyline winner: Dolphins
Los Angeles Rams (+3) vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 25
- Start time: 4:30 p.m. ET
The Rams were one-point underdogs on Monday. So this shift to +3 is welcome news. As much as L.A. almost certainly will struggle on offense, their defense should be able to contain the 32-year-old Latavius Murray, as well as any passing work the Broncos throw their way.
Expect a brutal defensive battle featuring more sacks and turnovers than normal. In the end, the home team should prevail, thanks in large part to (a) Baker Mayfield not throwing too much, and (b) see (a).
Against-the-spread prediction: Rams
Moneyline winner: Rams
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 25
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Let’s be blunt: if Tampa Bay loses this one, they’ll be 6-9 with Carolina and Atlanta remaining. A loss to the Panthers might knock them down to second place in the NFC South with one game to play.
I don’t see that happening. Tom Brady committed three turnovers in the third quarter this past Sunday in what might have been the worst frame of his career. But the Cardinals are a comparably broken team with a worse defense. I’m anticipating a bounce-back effort for the Bucs.
One thing to consider: the point spread was only 3.5 on Monday. Still, I’m not fazed, believing that Tampa Bay will find their offensive and defensive groove in one of their most favorable matchups of the season.
Against-the-spread prediction: Buccaneers
Moneyline winner: Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Monday, Dec. 26
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Zack Moss probably isn’t the answer for Indy. Perhaps Deon Jackson can recapture the magic from earlier this season, especially against a run defense yielding the second most yards per carry (5.4).
And that might be the Colts’ best chance: keep running the ball as long as the game is close. Because Nick Foles is Bruce Willis to Baker Mayfield’s Joseph Gordon Levitt (“Looper” reference for fellow film lovers).
I bring up Foles because, as many of you know, Matt Ryan has been benched. Before last week’s matchup against the Vikings, I shared that “this could be Ryan’s final NFL start,” as well as why “his starting job” was “on the line.” Because the Colts keep moving backward as most of the league moves forward. And that will once again be on display against the Chargers.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chargers