We are officially halfway through the NFL regular season and fresh off of two excellent weeks betting wise. After a great Week 7, we had a positive Week 8, as well. As always, there are a select number of Week 9 NFL betting lines that bettors should be all over. Let’s take a look at a few of them.
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Week 9 NFL Betting Lines: Official plays
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers, O/U 50.5
The Packers are coming off a loss at the hands of division-rival Minnesota in a game where the Vikings’ run game gave their defense fits. Aaron Rodgers still looks excellent, though, throwing for 291 yards and three touchdowns, all of which went to Davante Adams, who continues to solidify his spot as a top-five receiver in the NFL.
The 49ers are a walking emergency room at this point in the season. George Kittle will miss the rest of the regular season with a broken bone in his foot. Jimmy Garoppolo re-aggravated his previously injured ankle and will miss time, along with the plethora of defensive players who have missed time or are out for the season. It will be the “Nick Mullens Show” against Green Bay this week, and with all the injuries on top of that, it will be an uphill battle for the 49ers.
Green Bay is 5-2 against the spread this season and 3-1 on the road. The 49ers are a very pedestrian 4-4 against the spread.
Jarrett’s Official Play: GB -6 (-120)
Despite my remarks last week about nearly every underdog covering on Thursday night games, this is an outstanding Packers team going up against a depleted 49ers roster. The NFL betting lines for Week 9 had the number at 3.5 earlier in the week, and I think Green Bay covers that and then some, meaning the current line of six still presents an opportunity for value.
Houston Texans (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 51
This may be the easiest bet of the week. I know the Texans have looked like a dumpster fire this season, but the Jaguars are without one of the few bright spots of their roster as quarterback Gardner Minshew will not be playing due to an injured thumb (and tanking, cough cough). The Texans’ defense has been subpar. They are 22nd in pass defense and 30th in total defense. That said, they held Jacksonville to 14 points in their first matchup. Playing a rookie in his first start will play into the hands of the Texans.
There isn’t much to say about Jacksonville that I haven’t already said. I’ve bet a lot of Jaguars games this season, in large part because Gardner Minshew has kept them in games. With Jake Luton being the starter, any of their flare on offense is potentially out the window for the time being. They will look to run the ball with James Robinson but expect the Texans to sell out to stop the run and make Luton beat them over the top, which I don’t think he will do.
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Houston and Jacksonville are both atrocious against the spread. The Jaguars are 2-5, while the Texans are 1-6. That said, with Luton starting for Jacksonville, this is an easy pick.
Jarrett’s Official Play: HOU -6 (-118)
The line will more than likely move, having already gone to 6.5 or seven in some places, so jump on it while you can. Out of all the NFL betting lines, this one is the most attractive. Houston isn’t good, but I’ll go out on a limb and take Deshaun Watson over Jake Luton rather convincingly.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) vs. New Orleans Saints, O/U 51.5
People will be talking about the Buccaneers barely getting by the Giants; I’m not worried about it. Not every game will be a blowout, the offense rebounded and played well in the second half, and the defense had multiple takeaways; they’re fine. The offense will be getting Chris Godwin back, they add Antonio Brown next week, and their defense is a top-two unit in the league. They stumbled out of the gates against the Giants; they recovered and won the game, don’t look too far into it.
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The Saints are officially out of the Super Bowl bubble. Drew Brees can’t push the ball downfield, their passing defense is average, not good, and they can’t get to the quarterback often enough for their defense to be considered elite. This offense is Alvin Kamara or bust, and defensively they don’t have the depth to keep up with all the Buccaneers playmakers. It’s part of why the Saints have failed to cover the spread five times this season, despite being favorites to win in every single game.
Jarrett’s Official Play: TB -4.5 (-106)
I have given the Buccaneers a mulligan for Week 1. They now have two months of playing together, the offense is gelling, the defense is elite, and they are firing on all cylinders. The NFL betting line is generous at 4.5. I won’t be shocked if this is a blowout in favor of Tampa Bay.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills, O/U 54
The Seahawks finally had a win that didn’t come down to the wire, convincingly beating the hobbled 49ers, with the 37-27 score making it look closer than the actual game was. Russell Wilson is on pace for 59 touchdowns, which would shatter the league record that Peyton Manning holds from his 2013 season (55). The Seahawks may field the worst defense in football, but when their offense is scoring 35 points per game, that hasn’t seemed to matter too much. The Seahawks have a top-two offense in football, it’s a toss-up between them and the Chiefs, and I wouldn’t argue with you if you picked either of them.
Buffalo is 6-2, but they are a weak 6-2. They are 19th in points scored per game, they didn’t score a touchdown in their 18-10 win against the Jets, and they were 12 yards away from losing to a Patriots team that was without Julian Edelman and Stephon Gilmore. I love Josh Allen, but the offense has taken a step back over the last few weeks, and the defense lacks a talented defensive line that can get pressure and stop the run. I was high on the Bills defense coming into the season, but they’re 26th against the run, and injuries are holding them back.
The Seahawks are 5-2 against the spread, while Buffalo is just 3-5. Seattle is also 2-1 on the road, and the Bills are only 2-2 at home.
Jarrett’s Official Play: SEA -2.5 (-122)
Seattle’s offense is loaded with receiving talent with D.K. Metcalf emerging as an elite receiver, and Tyler Lockett still arguably the most underrated player in the game. The Bills need to show me that they can put up points and get some pressure before I begin taking them seriously again.
Denver Broncos (+4) at Atlanta Falcons, O/U 50
What a win it was for the Broncos in Week 8, overcoming a 24-3 deficit to beat the Chargers on a last-second touchdown. Denver has been bitten by the injury bug all season. Von Miller was lost just before Week 1, Drew Lock was lost for a month in Week 2 with a shoulder injury, and Courtland Sutton also went down in Week 2 and is done for the season.
That said, Lock is back and had a great second half against the Chargers, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler have picked up the slack in Sutton’s absence, and their defense has been above average. If their offense can start scoring more than their current 21 points per game, I like their odds to make a push for a wildcard spot.
Related | NFL Picks, Predictions for Week 9: Opening betting lines, odds, and scores
The Falcons covered for me last week in their Thursday night win over the Panthers, but this game will be played on Sunday, which means I’m not betting on them to do me, or any other bettors, any favors. Their passing defense is atrocious, and the Broncos have a lot of young talent to distribute to. On top of that, Calvin Ridley may be limited due to a foot sprain, which could hinder the offense.
The Falcons are 0-4 against the spread as the home team, while the Broncos are 3-0 in covering on the road. Atlanta hasn’t been reliable this season, and the Broncos seem to be finding their groove.
Jarrett’s Official Play: DEN +4 (-114)
The Broncos are a more complete team than Atlanta. A defensive play will need to be made at some point, and Atlanta has shown they can be relied on in those situations; the NFL betting line being at +4 for Denver is too good to refuse.
Week 9 NFL Betting Lines: Official leans
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
At this point, I can’t be confident in betting the Chargers to cover any line in which they are expected to win. Like the Falcons, they find incredible ways to lose games that are very much in hand. Justin Herbert has been fantastic, but this team is poorly coached. At some point, losing this many one-possession games has to fall back on Anthony Lynn.
The Raiders are now 4-3 and have wins over the Chiefs and Saints, as well as a hard-fought win over the Browns on a very windy day in Cleveland. Their defense is still suspect, but Derek Carr has been having a very quiet but good season for Vegas.
Jarrett’s Official Lean: LV +1.5 (-112)
The Chargers have more talent on both sides of the ball, but the Raiders are better coached. If it comes down to the final possession, which it almost certainly will, I have no confidence in the Chargers.
Remaining NFL Games
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Indianapolis Colts, O/U 45
Carolina Panthers (+10.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, O/U 52.5
Chicago Bears (+5.5) at Tennessee Titans, O/U 46.5
New York Giants (+3) at Washington Football Team, O/U 42.5
Miami Dolphins (+4) at Arizona Cardinals, O/U 47.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) at Dallas Cowboys, O/U N/A
New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets, O/U 42.5
You can follow Jarrett on Twitter @JBaileyNFL and Pro Football Network @PFN365.