If you’re planning to make Week 17 NFL bets, here are my favorite wagers — my best bets for the upcoming slate of games.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Early NFL Week 17 Best Bets
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, we’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Giants vs. Colts | Moneyline — Giants (-190)
It would be an understatement to say the Colts are a mess. But here we are. Nick Foles clearly isn’t the answer. Neither is Matt Ryan or Sam Ehlinger. Some teams have two or even three quarterbacks who can operate effectively when needed. Not Indianapolis. Not at all.
All 32 teams are loaded with professionals. In other words, there’s no such thing as “quitting.” But it’s hard to imagine Indy coming into Week 17 with the same win-at-all-costs attitude that the Giants surely will bring.
Giants vs. Colts | -3.5 Giants
And yes, this means not only will New York win, but they should win comfortably. Despite yielding the most rushing yards per carry, they shouldn’t worry too much about Zack Moss taking over. Moss was pushed out of Buffalo after languishing as the No. 3 RB. He’s the Colts’ starter by default: capable but not exceptional.
Unless Indy figures out how to make adequate adjustments, what we saw Monday night against the Chargers — a dismal offense effort that marred an otherwise sufficient defensive performance — should carry over into this difficult road matchup against a solid D and a dangerous ground game.
Commanders vs. Browns | Moneyline — Commanders (-140)
These are pretty good odds for a Washington franchise on the verge of miraculously securing a postseason berth. In the history of the NFL, no division has sent all of its teams to the playoffs. But it just might happen in the NFC East.
By contrast, the Browns are finished. Since September, I’ve been bracing readers for the strong possibility that (a) Cleveland wouldn’t make the playoffs, and (b) as a result, they wouldn’t risk trotting out their $250 million (guaranteed) franchise QB in meaningless games.
It remains to be seen whether Deshaun Watson suits up. Candidly, the Browns would be playing with fire if they keep starting him. An ACL tear or some other devastating injury could wreck this franchise for years.
As it stands, Washington has the talent and momentum to persevere in this must-win game. Notably, Watson has played like a backup QB after two years away, while Nick Chubb has averaged only 3.8 yards per carry in his last six games — a shocking regression in light of his blistering start to the season, as well as his lifetime 5.2 ypc mark.
Seahawks vs. Jets | Moneyline — Seahawks (+115)
I believe by halftime, bettors will wonder why Seattle was the underdog. There’s a sizable belief that Mike White might be the Jets’ 2023 starter. I’m not yet buying it. White’s immobility in the pocket hasn’t yet been exposed. He’s capable. But he’s beatable.
Regardless, with both teams pushing for a spot in the playoffs and with Tyler Lockett amazingly positioned for a possible return after missing only one game, the Seahawks have more offensive firepower.
I get it: the Jets’ defense is great. But their offense hasn’t looked the same since Breece Hall was lost for the season. They’ll need a high-functioning passing attack to score 20+. Seattle’s ninth in the league in scoring. Kenneth Walker III is the real deal.
And there’s one contextual angle that convinces me the Seahawks have a bigger edge than the betting lines suggest . . .
Seahawks vs. Jets | +2.5 Seahawks
. . . and that’s Geno Smith facing off against the team that drafted him and then let him go. It’s been nearly a decade. Perhaps it’s water under the bridge.
But consider the brutally tough road Smith had to navigate to arrive at this moment: the starting quarterback for a serious playoff contender. He started only two games from 2015 to 2020. As we entered the 2021 season, who actually believed the soon-to-be 31-year-old would get another shot — and would turn it into the best campaign of his career?
This is the undercurrent of a contest between two evenly-matched teams. Either we believe Smith can rise to the moment, or we believe he can’t. I’m firmly in the former camp. Smith didn’t come this far to throw away his chance.