Packers
Win total: 9 (O -120/ U +100)
2018 Pythagorean wins: 6.78 (-0.78)
Key additions: OG Billy Turner, OLB Preston Smith, OLB Za’Darius Smith, S Adrian Amos
Key losses: WR Randal Cobb, OLB Clay Matthews
Early round rookies: OLB Rashan Gary, S Darnell Savage, TE Jace Sternberger
Coaching changes: Fired Head Coach Mike McCarthy, fired Offensive Coordinator Tom Clements (Arizona Cardinals). Hired Head Coach Matt LaFleur (Tennessee Titans), hired Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Matt Lefleur coaching records: N/A
Offseason
For a team not known to “splurge” in free agency, the Packers did some serious shopping. The majority of the turnover happened on the defense, where Green Bay added five players who could see significant playing time this year.
The offensive personnel stayed the same, with the exception of wide receiver Randall Cobb‘s departure. Rather than adding a new receiver, Green Bay will let Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown compete for targets behind alpha WR Davante Adams.
The biggest change, however, was the head coach. After a home loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Packers decided to fire longtime head coach Mike McCarthy. In comes former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Matt LeFleur. Not much can be made of LeFleur’s short tenure in Tennessee, given the offensive line vastly underperformed and Marcus Mariotta was constantly hurt. It will be interesting to see what kind of relationship developed between Aaron Rodgers and LaFleur.
Defense
If this offseason was any indication, it seems the Packers are hell-bent on giving Aaron Rodgers an elite defense while they let him take care of the offense. Given the two biggest defensive signings were pass rushers, you’d be surprised to see they finished rather well in that department last season.
[table id=46 /]Despite the pass rush being their strong point last year, they parlayed the Smith signings by using their first pick on Michigan OLB Rashan Gary. It is going to be fascinating to see how this front gels together in 2019.
Secondary
Where the team seemed to struggle was in pass defense. They gave up the 9th most passing touchdowns and had the 8th highest TD%. Rookie cornerback Jaire Alexander had a terrific season, finishing 30th overall in PFF’s cornerback rankings. However, he alone wasn’t enough to keep the secondary in the upper half of the league in pass defense.
To combat the weak pass defense not only did they bolster the pass rush, but they also snagged safety Adrian Amos from rival Chicago. Amos finished 8th in PFF’s safety rankings, including 10th in coverage. Joining him on the backend will be rookie Darnell Savage. Savage’s strengths figure to be in coverage and making plays, something Green Bay lacked last season. They had just seven interceptions last year, a figure Amos and Savage will look to improve.
Defensive front
Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark headline the defensive front, soaking up bodies in front of linebacker Blake Martinez. Clark is one of the premier pass-rushing interior defensive linemen in the league. He earned PFF’s 4th best pass-rushing grade among interior defensive linemen. Daniel’s wasn’t far behind him, finishing 8ty. Martinez is no liability in coverage in his own right, finishing with the 10th best cover grade amongst linebackers according to PFF.
According to Warren Sharp, the Packers face the 9th easiest strength of schedule of passing offenses in terms of passing offense efficiency. Given all of their improvements and the players retained from last year, I don’t foresee this unit not being productive in 2019.
Offense
Offensive Line
Even though the majority of additions were on the defensive side of the ball, the offense did get a little boost as well. They signed guard Billy Turner from Denver and drafted guard Elgton Jenkins out of Mississippi State in the second round.
Tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga form one of the best tackle tandems in the league. Together they will look to improve upon a unit that ranked 21st in adjusted sack rate via Football Outsiders. Some of that is on Rodgers, however. He takes more sacks than he should, given he likes to look for the big, explosive plays downfield. PFF graded Green Bay as the best pass-blocking unit in the league, yet were charged for giving up the 3rd most sacks (53).
Offensive line coach Adam Stenavich spent the past two seasons as assistant offensive line coach for the San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco finished 10th in adjusted line yards both seasons. How much Stenavich contributed to that remains to be seen.
Run game
As far as the run game goes, the unit ranked 7th in adjusted line yards in 2018. They will need to keep up that level of play considering they face the second hardest schedule of run defenses in the NFL, according to Warren Sharp’s run defense efficiency.
Aaron Jones should have a stranglehold on this backfield, with Jamal Williams spelling him on occasion. I say should because of his immense talent. According to Number Fire’s net expected points model, Jones is projected to be the most efficient running back in the NFL in terms of rushing success. However, he is not this regime’s “guy.” Sixth-round pick Dexter Williams is a name to look out for should things turn sour for Jones.
Wide Receivers
Many expected the Packers to add another receiver in the draft to compete with late-round picks Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown and Geronimo Allison. That was not the case, however. They did draft tight end Jace Sternberger out of Texas A&M. Our own Shane Tyler believes they drafted the best tight end in franchise history. However, he might not get much playing time this year given Jimmy Graham is healthy.
Early offseason reports have Scantling ahead of Brown and Allison as the player most likely to start opposite Adams. Scantling is an incredible athlete who flashed his upside early in his rookie year. Allison figures to man the slot, while Brown and Jake Kumerow will come in for four-receiver sets.
Rodgers
Regardless of who wins that camp battle, the Packers season ultimately hinges on Aaron Rodgers. Many still label him as one of the best QB’s in the league, but his play recently hasn’t quite lived up to that pedigree.
[table id=50 /]I left out 2017 because he only played seven games that year. The touchdown percentage has been there, but in terms of yards per attempt, he has been mostly a league-average QB. No one stat tells the whole story, but considering his massive contract (which he earned), the Packers need more from him.
The Packers have a slightly harder than average schedule of opposing pass defenses according to Warren Sharp. The first three weeks are especially brutal with Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver. It would behoove the Packers to get off to a good start for rookie head coach Matt LaFleur.
Strength of schedule
Overall Warren Sharp gives the Packers an average strength of schedule (15th “easiest”). The first five weeks will be the toughest test as they play Chicago, Minnesota, Denver, Philadelphia, and Dallas. The good news is three of those games (Minnesota, Denver, Philadelphia) will be at home.
One thing of note I saw when looking over Sharp’s strength of schedule analysis, is that the Packers did not win a single game in 2018 in which they were worse than their opponent. Shouldn’t an upper-echelon QB like Rodgers be able to lift you to wins against superior foes? That aspect is a bit puzzling but does fall in line with Rodgers being right around league average in yards per attempt the past few seasons.
Suggested bets
Nine wins for the Packers is an absolutely fair projection. They revamped the pass rush even though it was already productive last year. The pass defense was addressed via the draft and free agency, and I expect Alexander to blossom into an elite cover corner this year.
Depth was added along an offensive line which boasts one of the best tackle tandems in the league. It feels weird to say, but the only aspect that seems to be a question mark is the passing offense. Is Aaron Rodgers starting to regress? The receiving threats outside of Davante Adams are all unproven as well.
The other big unknown is Matt LeFleur. There’s no telling how rookie coaches will fair their first year. The bright side is we may have a newly motivated Rodgers which would quell all concerns regarding the passing offense.
I can’t confidently suggest a bet to either the over or under. I would lean over nine as the schedule really softens up after that first five weeks. They get three of those games at home, so if they can go 3-2 in that span the rest of the season looks promising. That being said, I’m not taking the over.
I don’t see this line moving off of 9/9.5, so we’re probably stuck with a non-bet here. Bovada does have them at (+190) (34% implied probability) to win the division. That seems worthy of a wager given Chicago being good is factored into that price.
Bets: lean over 9
NFC North future (+190) Bovada
James Aguirre is a writer for PFN covering NFL betting and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter @PFN_James