The house always wins is what they say, and when it comes to betting on the NFL, that is more often than not the case. But that wasn’t true for the NFL in Week 12, as the public had an incredible week betting on favorites — perhaps their most profitable of the season.
NFL Betting Community Reacts to Favorites’ Dominant Week
We have one game left this week with the Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football. But through 15 games, it has been a dominant week for NFL favorites against the spread.
The Green Bay Packers started the week with an upset win over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, but overall, favorites have gone 12-3 against the spread (ATS) and SU.
This 12-3 ATS record includes a backdoor cover by the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football when Zay Flowers scored a 37-yard touchdown with 1:36 remaining to put them up 10 points (the spread was Ravens -3.5).
Millions of dollars changed hands on this Zay Flowers TD…
WOW.
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/rpFRnjbV9z
— br_betting (@br_betting) November 27, 2023
As you would expect, when favorites win and cover, that means the betting public won money and the sportsbooks lost. At DraftKings Sportsbook, this was most certainly the case.
NFL teams with the majority of bets at @DKSportsbook went 10-1 against the spread on Sunday.
For the week, those sides are 13-2 ATS 🤑🔥
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) November 27, 2023
The same was true at BetMGM, where the six teams with at least 60% of the bets went 5-0-1 against the spread.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The lone push was the Philadelphia Eagles, who closed as three-point favorites at BetMGM and won 37-34 in overtime (were -2.5 at other sportsbooks). But if you had an Eagles -3 ticket, you were certainly happy with a push after they were down by double digits entering the fourth quarter and gave up a field goal to start overtime.
Public teams (+60% of bets) on Sunday at @BetMGM
75% on Titans -3.5 ✅
73% on Rams -2.5 ✅
70% on Ravens -3.5 ✅
67% on Eagles -3 (push)
65% on Steelers -2.5 ✅
60% on Giants +4 ✅Public keeps winning. 🤑
— John Ewing (@johnewing) November 27, 2023
“The public feasted on favorites Thanksgiving weekend, and it resulted in the biggest week for sports bettors this NFL season at BetMGM,” said Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager at BetMGM, in a company newsletter.
Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN’s David Purdum the same thing.
"Probably the biggest week [of football season] for the customers." — Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for @CaesarsSports.
Happy holidays to the betting public!
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) November 27, 2023
Overall, the betting public had a lot to be thankful for this week in the NFL. They’re hoping the success continues on Monday Night Football, as the Vikings (-3 vs. the Bears) are another public favorite tonight.
Currently, at DraftKings, 75% of the bets are on the Vikings to cover, and they’re getting 77% of the spread tickets at BetMGM as well.
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.