As I do every week, I gave out my initial NFL bets for this week on Sunday right when the betting lines re-opened. But since then, I have had more time to analyze these matchups, follow the line movement, and monitor the injury reports. So here is an updated look at my NFL bets and expert picks for every game this week.
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NFL Week 7 Betting Lines
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Odds
- Spread
Saints -1.5 - Moneyline
Jaguars +106, Saints -124 - Total
39.5
I mentioned in our picks article for tonight’s game that I like both the Saints and the under for Thursday Night Football, regardless of Trevor Lawrence’s availability.
Expert Pick: Under 39.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
- Spread
Browns -2.5 - Moneyline
Browns -124, Colts +106 - Total
40
Not sure how low this total would have to be to scare me off from taking the under. This Browns defense is historically good, and they shouldn’t have any problem against Gardner Minshew II and this Colts offense, even on the road. But I’m also not sure how many points Cleveland can put up offensively. I’ll wait until we get more clarity on Deshaun Watson before betting on this, as the total could go up.
Expert Pick: Under 40 (-110 at FanDuel)
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Odds
- Spread
Commanders -2.5 - Moneyline
Commanders -144, Giants +122 - Total
39.5
Getting a divisional home underdog is always enticing, unless they’re the New York Giants, that is. I’m not sure how good this Washington team is, with their most impressive win coming against the Falcons, but they’re a whole lot better on both sides of the ball than the Giants. I like them here giving under a field goal.
Expert Pick: Commanders -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
- Spread
Buccaneers -2.5 - Moneyline
Falcons +118, Buccaneers -138 - Total
37.5
The Buccaneers were a fraudulent 3-1 team, but the Falcons aren’t any better. Even with the addition of Bijan Robinson, the Falcons have struggled to get their rushing offense going and will be going against a Bucs defense that is allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game.
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Up until last week, Falcons QB Desmond Ridder was undefeated at home — but he is also winless on the road as an NFL starter, and he struggles greatly away from Atlanta. For his career, his completion percentage is almost 10% lower and his yards per attempt is just 5.52 when playing on the road.
Expert Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Odds
- Spread
Bills -8.5 - Moneyline
Bills -450, Patriots +350 - Total
40.5
This is the most obvious teaser leg of the week, as you can get the Bills down to -2.5 in a 6-point tease. It seems too obvious, but does anyone see a scenario in which the Patriots can keep this game close? Let’s tease them with the Seahawks, who are 7.5-point home favorites against the Arizona Cardinals.
Expert Pick: Bills -2.5 and Seahawks -1.5 in a 6-point tease (-134 at FanDuel)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears Odds
- Spread
Raiders -3 - Moneyline
Raiders -156, Bears +132 - Total
37.5
I don’t care who is playing quarterback for either team, the Raiders should not be 3-point road favorites against anybody. These two teams are close in DVOA, with the Raiders getting the slight edge, and they have near-equal EPA/play metrics on both sides of the ball. The point is, despite their 3-3 record, the Raiders don’t deserve to be favored by this many points in Chicago.
Expert Pick: Bears +3 (-110 at FanDuel)
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds
- Spread
Ravens -3 - Moneyline
Lions +126, Ravens -148 - Total
42.5
This is the ultimate sell-high spot for the Lions. No team is getting more hype at the moment, and rightfully so, as the Lions look like an NFC contender at 5-1 so far this season. But going against this Ravens defense on the road will be another major test for them, as they’re the second-best unit by EPA/play behind the Browns so far this season. The Ravens might be at rest and travel disadvantage coming back from London, but that didn’t affect the Jaguars last week.
Expert Pick: Ravens -3 (-110 at FanDuel)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
- Spread
Rams -3 - Moneyline
Steelers +140, Rams -166 - Total
43.5
This is a tricky one. I think the Rams are the superior team, but history has shown that you want to bet on the Steelers and Mike Tomlin as underdogs. But I can’t buy into this Steelers offense against anybody, and their defense isn’t reminding anyone of the old Pittsburgh teams either, allowing the third-most yards per game.
Kyren Williams will be missed for the Rams here, but the Steelers’ run defense has been dreadful since losing Cam Heyward in Week 1. I expect Sean McVay and the Rams to continue overachieving this week.
Expert Pick: Rams -3 (-110 at FanDuel)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
- Spread
Seahawks -7.5 - Moneyline
Cardinals +310, Seahawks -390 - Total
44.5
I teased the Seahawks with the Bills earlier, so I’ll give out another pick for this game. The Seahawks left a lot of points on the board last week, as they had two failed fourth down attempts inside the 10-yard line and threw an interception in the red zone earlier in the game. They had 170 more yards of offense than the Bengals and still lost. Against a far worse Cardinals defense, I’m expecting some positive regression for the Seahawks offensively this week.
Expert Pick: Seahawks over 26.5 points (-128 at FanDuel)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -5.5 - Moneyline
Chargers +190, Chiefs -230 - Total
47.5
The Chargers are coming off a disappointing outing on Monday Night Football this past week, and with everyone watching them fall flat against the Cowboys, you would think there would be an overwhelming amount of action on the Chiefs here. But the spread has come down from six points, which seemed like far too many for this divisional matchup.
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I don’t see as much value in taking the Chargers getting 5.5 points, but I would still lean in that direction on the spread. But the total is still at 48 at DraftKings, and I like taking the under at that number. The Chiefs’ defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL this season, ranking sixth in EPA/play, and having held all of their opponents to 21 points or less all season.
Expert Pick: Under 48 (-110 at DraftKings)
Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos Odds
- Spread
Packers -1.5 - Moneyline
Packers -118, Broncos +100 - Total
45
You’re going to hate this pick, but why are the Packers road favorites here? Jordan Love has been one of the least efficient quarterbacks this season, and unless he shows major improvement shortly, I’m not backing this Packers team giving points on the road against anybody, even against a Broncos team with a historically bad defense.
I don’t even need the points — give me the Broncos to win straight up. Broncos Country, let’s ride!
Expert Pick: Broncos ML (+100 at FanDuel)
Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
- Spread
Eagles -2.5 - Moneyline
Dolphins +120, Eagles -142 - Total
51.5
This line jumped back up to Eagles -2.5 today as it looks like Lane Johnson will be active for this one, and there’s a good chance both Jalen Carter and Darius Slay will be back. Carter and Slay are important going against this juggernaut of a Dolphins offense, but Johnson is arguably the most valuable Eagle after Hurts.
As we saw last week, the pass protection falls off a cliff without him in the game, and Johnson’s presence will be important for the Eagles to keep pace with this Miami offense.
Given their home-field advantage and opportunity to buy low coming off a flukey loss in which they had four turnovers, I like the Eagles to bounce back here.
Expert Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
49ers -7 - Moneyline
49ers -310, Vikings +250 - Total
44
Although none of their injuries sound serious, it’s hard to give a pick for this game not knowing if Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, or Trent Williams will be playing. Those are three important players for the 49ers!
I’m going to pass on this game for now, but if they’re back and this line goes up, I’ll take the Vikings getting more than a touchdown and bet on them continuing their trend of exclusively playing in one-score games.