I gave out my early NFL Week 6 picks and predictions on Monday morning, but since then, we have received more injury updates, and I have had a couple of days to give each of these games more thought.
There has also been some line movement, as the point spread for the San Francisco 49ers has increased considerably since Sunday evening. With all of that in mind, let’s get into my NFL bets for Week 6.
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NFL Week 6 Betting Lines
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
- Spread
Ravens -4 - Moneyline
Ravens -198, Titans +166 - Total
41
I initially was on the Tennessee Titans, but the more I think about it, the more I like this as a bounce-back spot for the Baltimore Ravens. Their loss last week was the flukiest of the season, as they had three turnovers, a blocked punt for a safety, and seven drops! On a neutral field, they’re more than four points better than the Titans, who let me down last week in their loss against the Indianapolis Colts. Give me the Ravens here.
NFL Bet: Ravens -4 (-110 at FanDuel)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns Odds
- Spread
49ers -9.5 - Moneyline
49ers -490, Browns +380 - Total
35.5
This line has gone up a ton as Deshaun Watson has been ruled out and will be replaced by PJ Walter. Since it opened on Sunday night, the spread has moved from 2.5 all the way up to as high as 10 at one point on Friday.
MORE: Gallimore’s NFL Week 6 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread
The 49ers were supposed to be tested by the Dallas Cowboys defense last week, but they put up 42 points and 421 yards of offense. I know the number isn’t available anymore, but I teased the 49ers down from -6.5 to -0.5 with the Colts earlier this week. At 9.5, I wouldn’t be against playing the Browns here.
NFL Bet: 49ers -0.5 and Colts +10.5 in a 6-point teaser (-134 at FanDuel)
Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
- Spread
Falcons -2.5 - Moneyline
Commanders +114, Falcons -134 - Total
42.5
The Washington Commanders’ defense has been absolutely dreadful this season. For four weeks in a row, they have allowed their opponent to score at least 33 points, including 40 points to the Chicago Bears last week, who had 451 yards of offense. For the season, the Commanders’ defense ranks 29th in EPA/play.
Desmond Ridder silenced his critics with the best performance of his young career last week in a win over the Houston Texans. Given how much better they have played at home this season and going against this Washington defense, I like the Atlanta Falcons giving less than a field goal.
You should also be eying Drake London’s player props for this one, given the matchup against Emmanuel Forbes.
The past two WR1s to face the Washington Commanders:
D.J. Moore — 230 yards, 49 PPR points
A.J. Brown — 175 yards, 39 PPR pointsRookie CB Emmanuel Forbes has allowed a league-high 14.9 yards per target and is one of just two CBs with 400+ receiving yards allowed in 2023.…
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 11, 2023
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
- Spread
Dolphins -13.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +660, Dolphins -950 - Total
48.5
Just as you thought things couldn’t get any worse for the Carolina Panthers, they have to play the Miami Dolphins on the road. The Dolphins are more than capable of blowing out bad teams with how explosive their offense is, even without De’Von Achane. But the Panthers offense, as bad as they are, is also capable of putting up garbage time points against this Dolphins defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/play.
NFL Bet: Lean Over 48.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Odds
- Spread
Vikings -2.5 - Moneyline
Vikings -148, Bears +126 - Total
44.5
After being one of the luckiest teams in NFL history last season, regression has hit the Minnesota Vikings really hard in 2023. Still, even without Justin Jefferson, they’re the way better 1-5 team in this matchup, even giving points on the road. It’s also a good opportunity to sell relatively high on the Bears, who we shouldn’t forget are still a bad football team.
NFL Bet: Vikings -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread
Jaguars -4.5 - Moneyline
Colts +176, Jaguars -210 - Total
46.5
Both of these teams are coming off big upsets last week, so which one are we going to sell high on? I already teased the Colts with the 49ers earlier, as I don’t see this game being decided by double digits, but I’ll give you another pick here as well.
MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 6
Despite being the home team, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be at rest and travel disadvantage after being in London for two consecutive weeks. As impressive as Anthony Richardson has been as a rookie so far, there hasn’t been much of a drop-off, if at all, with Gardner Minshew II under center.
After two big wins in London, I could see a bit of a letdown spot for the Jaguars here against a division rival. The spread has already gone down a bit, but I still like the value as long as it’s above 3.5 points.
NFL Bet: Colts +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans Odds
- Spread
Saints -1.5 - Moneyline
Saints -124, Texans +106 - Total
42.5
In what is somewhat surprising relative to preseason expectations, this Texans team is much better than the New England Patriots, who the New Orleans Saints beat 34-0 last week. The biggest difference is that C.J. Stroud has been significantly better than Mac Jones and any other quarterback the Saints have faced this season.
Although the Saints’ pass defense is the fourth best in success rate so far, Baker Mayfield has been the best quarterback they’ve gone up against, and they rank dead last in pass-rush win rate. After a close loss on the road last week, I like the Texans to bounce back here against a Saints team I’m not really buying at the moment.
NFL Bet: Texans ML (+106 at FanDuel)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
- Spread
Bengals -3 - Moneyline
Seahawks +126, Bengals -148 - Total
45
Is Joe Burrow officially back after his bounce-back performance last week? Maybe, but we know how this offense struggles against an elite pass rush, and this Seattle Seahawks defense ranks fourth in pass-rush win rate so far this season. That’s an entirely different beast than the Arizona Cardinals’ 28th-ranked pass rush they went against last week.
There might be an overcorrection to this Bengals offense after they scored 34 points on Arizona last week, but I don’t see enough value in taking the under at 45. I do like the Seahawks enough here, especially coming off their bye week, to take them getting three points.
NFL Bet: Seahawks +3 (-115 at FanDuel)
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Raiders -3 - Moneyline
Patriots +138, Raiders -164 - Total
41.5
Talk about a terrible game and one that I would have zero interest in watching if not for betting and fantasy. I can’t promise I’m going to watch this game from start to finish, but I will give you a pick.
These are two of the worst offenses in the NFL so far — Raiders 24th in EPA/play, Patriots 32nd (not to mention they have scored three combined points in their last two games) — and are led by two quarterbacks that don’t intimidate any defense.
The total is at a key number of 41.5 — let’s grab it while we can. I also don’t hate the Las Vegas Raiders’ team total under at 22.5 (currently at BetMGM), considering they haven’t gone over that number all season.
NFL Bet: Under 41.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Lions -168, Buccaneers +142 - Total
46
The Detroit Lions have been far better than I gave them credit for early in the season; meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have outperformed everyone’s expectations so far. The Buccaneers may be coming off a bye and are home underdogs here, but I think the Lions are a much better team.
The Buccaneers’ most impressive win of the season was against the Saints when Derek Carr was far from 100 percent. Otherwise, their two wins have come against two 1-4 teams.
The Philadelphia Eagles closed as six-point favorites in Tampa Bay in Week 3 — as good as Philly is, I don’t think the difference between them and Detroit right now is 3 points.
NFL Bet: Lions -3 (-120 at FanDuel)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
- Spread
Rams -7 - Moneyline
Cardinals +265, Rams -330 - Total
48.5
The Cardinals had a nice run to start the season, especially with their upset win over the Dallas Cowboys, but reality is starting to settle in. Meanwhile, despite their offense getting shut out in the second half last week, the Los Angeles Rams’ passing game with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua looks to be one of the best in the NFL this season.
I missed the value when the spread was under a touchdown, but I still lean that way for the time being. After a difficult matchup against Philly’s defense and pass rush last week, I also like Stafford to have a big day here and will be eying his props.
NFL Bet: Rams -7 (-110 at FanDuel)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets Odds
- Spread
Eagles -7 - Moneyline
Eagles -330, Jets +265 - Total
41
If there was a time to sell (high?) on Zach Wilson, it’s against the Eagles. Dating back to last season, the Eagles’ defense feasts on bad quarterbacks, and their pass rush will be at a huge advantage going against this New York Jets offensive line that just got even worse with Alijah Vera-Tucker out for the season.
I’m expecting Wilson to revert back to the quarterback he has been for his entire career up until the last two weeks and for the Eagles’ rushing defense, which has been the best in the NFL so far, to contain Breece Hall after he ran for 177 yards last week.
NFL Bet: Eagles -7 (-108 at FanDuel)
New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -15.5 - Moneyline
Giants +750, Bills -1200 - Total
43.5
Just what every NFL fan has been dreaming of — more New York Giants games on prime time!
After a disappointing loss in London, a home game against the Giants couldn’t have come at a better time for the Buffalo Bills. They’ll have the travel disadvantage here and lost both Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones to injury last week, but this should be an easy win for them. Still, I don’t like to take favorites of two or more touchdowns, so I’ll be going in a different direction here.
If you’re afraid of a potential Giants backdoor cover late in the game with such a large spread, you can opt for the Bills 1st half spread instead. The Giants, who have yet to score an offensive touchdown in the first half this season, should have a difficult time keeping pace with the Bills early in this one, who we all know are as explosive as they come offensively.
NFL Bet: Bills -8.5 1H (-110 at FanDuel)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -2.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys -132, Chargers +112 - Total
50.5
And to wrap up Week 6, we have the Kellen Moore revenge game on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys got absolutely embarrassed by the 49ers last week, and may not be among the NFC’s elite like we thought they were.
Austin Ekeler’s expected return for the Los Angeles Chargers should give them a much-needed boost offensively. In his absence, the Chargers have had the worst rushing offense by success rate and have averaged 3.37 yards per carry — 2.70 if you take away a 51-yard touchdown run by WR Derius Davis.
MORE: NFL Week 6 Odds and Betting Trends
In this matchup, I don’t trust the current state of the Cowboys’ offense to back them giving points on the road (even if it will essentially be a home game for them) against this Chargers team. Since they lost Trevon Diggs for the season, the Cowboys’ defense ranks 29th in success rate, and that stretch includes a 38-3 win over the Patriots.
NFL Bet: Chargers +2.5 (-112 at FanDuel)