One pattern so far this season through the first four weeks is that the betting public has been winning the majority of their NFL bets, which is fairly surprising.
NFL teams getting +50% of bets this season have gone 32-24-3 (57%) ATS per @Bet_Labs.
Public 🤑pic.twitter.com/SXkjJqIoqw
— John Ewing (@johnewing) October 3, 2023
Another interesting stat so far this season is that NFL favorites are 30-30-3 against the spread. Vegas has been on the money with these betting lines, to say the least.
In my early picks and predictions article on Monday, I mentioned that this was the first time in three weeks in which we didn’t have a double-digit favorite, but the spread for New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins could go above 10 points by Sunday. Well, it didn’t take long for that to happen, as the spread moved from Dolphins -9.5 to -10.5 after the Giants lost 24-3 on Monday night.
Now that I have had a few more days to analyze the odds and look for some value, here are my updated NFL bets for every game this week.
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NFL Week 5 Betting Lines
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Odds
- Spread
Commanders -6 - Moneyline
Bears +215, Commanders -265 - Total
44.5
I gave out two player props as my favorite picks for this one in our TNF picks and predictions article. Check out my picks and the rest of the PFN betting team’s picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -5.5 - Moneyline
Jaguars +190, Bills -230 - Total
48.5
The Jaguars offense has been performing far below their lofty preseason expectations, ranking just 24th in EPA/play so far this season. They did score 23 points in last week’s win over the Atlanta Falcons, but they generated just 300 yards of total offense. This week, they face a Bills defense that has been one of the best units in the NFL this season.
MORE: Jacob Rebb’s NFL Week 5 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread
Trevor Lawrence and this offense should get back on track eventually, but it won’t be this week. Let’s go with the under on their team total, which is currently a point higher at FanDuel than DraftKings.
NFL Bet: Jaguars team total under 21.5 (-138 at FanDuel)
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
- Spread
Falcons -2 - Moneyline
Texans +108, Falcons -126 - Total
41.5
Desmond Ridder has struggled mightily through four weeks this season, as only Joe Burrow has been a less efficient quarterback, according to EPA/play + CPOE. After the Falcons had a surprisingly effective offense last season despite their limited passing attack, that has not been the case so far this season.
The Houston Texans, meanwhile, have been outperforming expectations on both sides of the ball, and C.J. Stroud looks like the real deal and especially more trustworthy to bet on than Ridder.
I don’t have a strong play for this one however, as I’m worried about a potential bounce back spot for the Falcons’ rushing attack. We all know this offense goes as far as their running game can take them, and in their 2-game losing streak, they have faced two top-10 rushing defenses. The Texans however, rank 19th in rushing yard allowed per game and 25th in success rate.
For now however, I’ll lean Texans ML, but I’ll be eying Bijan Robinson props.
NFL Bet: Lean Texans ML (+110 at DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions Odds
- Spread
Lions -9.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +370, Lions -480 - Total
44.5
I was extremely low on the Carolina Panthers’ offense going into the season, but they’re far worse than I could’ve imagined. Bryce Young looks the most like a rookie of the three first-round quarterbacks, and he has a very underwhelming supporting cast offensively. The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, are much better than I previously gave them credit for.
The Lions have a top-10 defense in EPA per play so far this season, and they’re facing a Panthers offense that is averaging 13.33 PPG with Young under center. I liked the under earlier this week when it was at 43.5, so I obviously like it even more at 44.5. Glad I waited.
NFL Bet: Under 44.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
- Spread
Titans -1 - Moneyline
Titans -116, Colts -102 - Total
42.5
I liked Tennessee earlier in the week when they were underdogs, but the spread has flipped 2.5 points since, with the Titans now being favored.
It’s hard to get a read on this Titans team. They’re 2-2, with their two losses coming against two top-10 defenses in the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints, and one of their wins came against a Cincinnati Bengals team that is an absolute mess right now. We shouldn’t discredit that Bengals win by any means, however, as it was a complete beatdown on both sides of the football by the Titans.
MORE: NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks
On the surface, it looks like the Indianapolis Colts’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL, as they rank 22nd in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed per game. Where they struggle the most, however, is their run defense, as they have allowed 350 rushing yards over the last two weeks. Unfortunately for them, they’re facing Derrick Henry this week, who is coming off his best game of the season.
NFL Bet: Titans ML (-115 at DraftKings)
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
- Spread
Dolphins -10.5 - Moneyline
Giants +430, Dolphins -590 - Total
48.5
Until the Giants get both Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas back, it will be really hard to stomach betting on them to cover any number, even as high as 10.5 points. This Dolphins defense is the worst they have faced all season, but it’s also by far the worst offense Miami will have played against.
Barkley was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, but Thomas was held out. I’m going to pass on this game until we get more clarity on the Giants’ injuries.
NFL Bet: Pass
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
- Spread
Ravens -4 - Moneyline
Ravens -194, Steelers +162 - Total
38
This total has unsurprisingly dipped below 40, as the Pittsburgh Steelers, with or without Kenny Pickett, are a disaster offensively at the moment; meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens’ defense has been one of the best in the NFL.
It looks like Pickett will be playing, but with how bad he has looked so far this season, that shouldn’t impact anyone’s thinking on the spread here. Unless you think there’s extra value on the Ravens now that the spread has gone down half a point. Given this rivalry and the Steelers’ success under Mike Tomlin as home underdogs in general (17-5-3 ATS), I’m a bit nervous about fading them here.
Although they might get some guys back from injury this week, I still think the Ravens’ offense has a long way to go in reaching its potential. They scored 28 points on the Browns’ elite defense last week, but two of their touchdowns came after turnovers in Cleveland territory.
Instead of fading either side, let’s do what’s usually a safe bet in this rivalry and bet on the defenses by taking the under. Side note: if the spread goes back up to 4.5, the Steelers would be a great six-point teaser leg up to 10.5.
NFL Bet: Under 38 (-110 at FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Odds
- Spread
Saints -1 - Moneyline
Saints -108, Patriots -108 - Total
40
The only thing the New England Patriots had going for them was their defense, but they lost arguably their two best defensive players to injuries last week in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez.
I liked the Saints as a dog earlier in the week, and I still like them as a favorite. Hopefully, Derek Carr can get healthier and won’t force-feed as many short completions to Alvin Kamara. His 13 catches for 33 yards is one of the more ridiculous stat lines in recent memory.
NFL Bet: Saints ML (-108 at FanDuel)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
- Spread
Bengals -3 - Moneyline
Bengals -148, Cardinals +126 - Total
44.5
How can anyone feel confident in betting on the Bengals at the moment, especially as a road favorite? Until we have visual evidence that Joe Burrow looks healthier, I am going to avoid putting any money on this team, especially when their second-best playmaker Tee Higgins is dealing with a rib injury.
The Arizona Cardinals continue to outperform their preseason expectations but finally came up short of beating the spread last week in a failed attempt to backdoor cover. Forget the three points, though; let’s take a chance on winning them outright against a struggling Bengals team.
NFL Bet: Cardinals ML (+126 at FanDuel)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
- Spread
Eagles -4.5 - Moneyline
Eagles -215, Rams +180 - Total
50.5
The good news for Philadelphia Eagles fans? Their team is 4-0. The bad news, they appear to have far more problems than they did a year ago.
I’m not worried about their offense here after they put up 877 yards over their last two weeks. I’m concerned about their pass defense, which got picked apart by Sam Howell last week. Their defense gives up a lot underneath, and the injury to Avonte Maddox in the secondary has certainly taken a toll. Matthew Stafford will be the best quarterback they have faced so far this season, and he looks like his old self. Plus, he might be getting Cooper Kupp back this week.
I liked the over at 49.5 earlier in the week, and it’s now at 50.5 with juice on the over. I still like it as long as it’s below 51.5
NFL Bet: Over 50.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -4 - Moneyline
Chiefs -200, Vikings +168 - Total
52.5
The spread has come down 1.5 points since Sunday, which I’m guessing is due to sharp money on the Minnesota Vikings because the betting public would never bet on Kirk Cousins over Patrick Mahomes.
Even if their offense doesn’t look as explosive as we’re used to seeing, this Kansas City Chiefs unit still has put up the third-most yards per game and is fifth in EPA/play.
I don’t have a strong play for this game, but I would lean toward the over in what should be a bounce-back spot for the Chiefs offense after two uncharacteristic interceptions thrown by Mahomes last week. Plus, we know this Vikings offense is also more than capable of scoring points.
NFL Bet: Lean Over 52.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Odds
- Spread
Broncos -1.5 - Moneyline
Jets +110, Broncos -130 - Total
43.5
The spread has been bet down after everyone all of a sudden is really high on Zach Wilson after his solid performance on Sunday Night Football. It wasn’t spectacular, but by Wilson’s standards, it was exceptional.
If there was any opponent for Wilson to have an even better game against, it would be the Denver Broncos, who have by far the worst defense in the NFL so far this season. It has been reported as well that Breece Hall should be the featured back this week, who has been far more efficient than Dalvin Cook so far.
35 RBs have at least 30 carries this season.
Most yards per carry:
Breece Hall (6.5)Least yards per carry:
Dalvin Cook (2.5)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 3, 2023
Just in case the New York Jets’ defense has a really good day, let’s go with their team total over, which is still below a key number of 20.5.
NFL Bet: Jets team total over 20.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds
- Spread
49ers -3.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys +156, 49ers -186 - Total
45
The Game of the Week. For this one, we will in fact be waiting all day for Sunday night, right Carrie Underwood?
Aside from their embarrassing loss to the Cardinals in Week 3, the Dallas Cowboys have looked absolutely dominant so far this season. Their point differential of +83 is the best in the NFC and second-best in the NFL behind the Bills.
MORE: NFL Injuries Week 5
Although the San Francisco 49ers have looked like the best team so far, their 26th-ranked offensive line going against this Cowboys pass rush could be a major mismatch. It will be by far their biggest test to date, as the Cowboys have the top-ranked defense in pass rush win rate led by the DPOY favorite Micah Parsons.
Christian McCaffrey could run all over this Cowboys defense, but I like getting the hook here with Dallas.
NFL Bet: Cowboys +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Packers -1 - Moneyline
Packers -116, Raiders -102 - Total
44.5
We still don’t know if Jimmy Garoppolo will return this week, so I’m going to wait and see before making any picks or bets on this game. Both teams are pretty untrustworthy at the moment, but something’s got to give.
NFL Bet: Pass for now