The PFN betting team has been on fire with their NFL best bets all season long. Last week, we collectively went a combined 12-5-1, with one of those losses being a +1700 long shot. Some of the victories included going 3 of 3 on the Calvin Ridley receiving yards ladder (which we only counted as one win) and the Patriots scoring under 20.5 points (they were shut out).
Through five weeks, we are now 56-30-1 on our NFL best bets, so if you have been following along all season, you would be up a lot of money! But to quote Mike Tomlin, “last week was last week, this week was this week, next week will be next week.” So it’s time to stop gloating about the past and get into the NFL Week 6 best bets.
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
NFL Week 6 Best Bets
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:00 am EST. Click here to place your bets.
Best Bets record to date: 56-30-1
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -5.5 - Moneyline
Ravens -250, Titans +205 - Total
42.5 - Game Time
9:30 a.m. ET - Location
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - How To Watch
NFL Network
Bearman: I’m 3-0 on taking the under on totals below 42 this year, so I have gotten into a nice pattern here. It’s not a popular practice, but I always say it’s low for a reason — neither offense is good, so I’m not afraid to play on that.
MORE: Week 6 NFL Bets and Expert Picks
The Ravens’ last three games have combined for 41, 31, and 27 points. For the Titans, it’s been 30, 30, and 39 points. Both teams are 4-1 to the under, and neither have been efficient this year in moving the ball consistently.
This line has moved from 40.5 to 42, which signals some betting on the over, but that isn’t scaring me. I’ll take the better number and continue betting unders. This is the third straight week I’ve taken an under on a Ravens game.
Best Bet: Under 42 (-110 at DraftKings)
Blewis: As we saw last week, London games can often be unpredictable, but I still really like the Ravens here. Playing on a neutral field, the Ravens are much more than four points better than this Titans team, in my opinion.
The Ravens are a couple of bad bounces away from being 5-0 and being talked about as one of the elite teams in the AFC. When looking at FTN’s DVOA rankings, the Ravens are ranked seventh, and the Titans are 22nd.
From a matchup perspective, this should be a bounce-back for Lamar Jackson, who was the highest-graded quarterback at PFF last week. It’s almost impossible for his receivers to drop seven passes again, and he’s going against a Titans pass defense that is 27th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate.
On the other side, I think the Titans’ offense is at a big mismatch against the Raven’s defense. The backbone of this offense is Derrick Henry, who has not been efficient so far this season. Through five games, he is averaging career lows in yards per attempt, yards before contact, and yards after contact on average.
Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill and their passing game will be going against a Ravens secondary that is completely healthy now and, despite their injuries this season, is currently ranked third in dropback EPA/play.
The talent gap isn’t even close here in my opinion, and this line would make more sense if the game was in Tennessee, not on a neutral site in London.
Best Bet: Ravens -4 (-110 at DraftKings)
Note: the line has since moved to Ravens -5.5 — I would still take the Ravens up to -6.5
Soppe: When do passes get intercepted? There are exceptions to every rule, but if I’m going to project a QB to throw a pick, he has to check at least one, if not multiple, of these boxes:
- High attempt count
- High possession game
- High aDOT
- Pressured often
Now, let’s breakdown how Lamar Jackson stacks up in those regards
-
- Ravens: Fourth-lowest pass rate over expectation
- Titans: Second-slowest operating offense
- Under 6.5 yard aDOT three times, below average for the season
- Titans: Fifth-lowest pressure rate
See where I’m going with this? The Ravens should be playing with a lead, another factor in this bet, as that discourages risk-taking. Jackson has seen just three of his past 294 passes intercepted. He has seemingly corrected the flaw in his game that hurt Baltimore in 2021.
Best Bet: Lamar Jackson under 0.5 interceptions (-106 at BetRivers)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction
- Spread
49ers -9.5 - Moneyline
49ers -500, Browns +380 - Total
36 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Cleveland Browns Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: Jerome Ford’s carry counts by game this season have been 15, 16, 10, and 9. Volume hasn’t been an issue. Yet, he’s gone over 36 rushing yards just once. That came in Week 2 against the Steelers’ weak run defense.
This week, the Browns are heavy home underdogs against a 49ers defense allowing 43 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. They should fall behind early and be forced to abandon the run, not even giving Ford a chance to break one.
MORE: Week 6 NFL Survivor Picks
Additionally, Kareem Hunt has run for 13 and 12 yards in each of his two games with the Browns. Further, note that those two games were both four-score blowouts in opposite directions.
The Browns are going to struggle to get anything going offensively with PJ Walker starting. In the projected negative game script, I will fade both of their running backs.
Best Bets: Jerome Ford under 36.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings) and Kareem Hunt under 17.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction
- Spread
Falcons -1.5 - Moneyline
Commanders +100, Falcons -120 - Total
42.5 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Soppe: Sam Howell has indeed hit 290 passing yards in three of his past four games, but I’m overlooking that in favor of this matchup.
In the first three weeks of the season, we saw Howell rank among the most risk-averse quarterbacks in the game in terms of downfield shots. Now, that has changed recently, largely due to the position his team has been put in. I’m banking on the Week 1-3 version of Howell to reappear in what figures to be a tight game.
If that’s the case, he is set to underwhelm. The Falcons are the fifth-best team at both limiting yardage after the catch and pressuring the quarterback. If those quick-hitting passes aren’t picking up much yardage, Washington could elect to pound the rock with Brian Robinson more and attempt to move the ball that way.
A.J. Terrell also looms and is a threat to single-handedly shut down the deep passing game. Washington is a below-average team in terms of pace of play and we know Atlanta is interested in running the ball to set up the run, a combination of tendencies that could result in a reduced possession count in this one.
Best Bet: Sam Howell under 241.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
- Spread
Dolphins -14.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +750, Dolphins -1200 - Total
47.5 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Hard Rock Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: We have talked at length in this column and on the PFN Betting Podcast of our disdain for laying two touchdowns in the NFL with many backdoor opportunities, and no one likes to back really bad teams. So, we are going to isolate the first quarter here.
The Dolphins are 2nd in the NFL in first-quarter points and have scored on every opening drive this season with four TDs and one FG. The Panthers, on the other hand, have one first-quarter TD all season — a pick-six off Kirk Cousins.
Instead of laying 14, I will lay four in the opening quarter.
Best Bet: Dolphins -3.5 1st quarter (-118 at FanDuel)
Katz: Raheem Mostert has enjoyed a positive game script in three games this season. In those games, he’s run for 121, 83, and 65 yards. The 65 yards was last week, and De’Von Achane had taken over as the lead back.
Achane is now on IR. Jeff Wilson isn’t quite ready to return. Mostert is going to be the lead back and should see 12-15 carries.
Have you seen the Panthers run defense? If you have, please let me know, because I haven’t. The Panthers are allowing 5.2 YPC and 128 rushing yards per game to running backs. This is a great spot for Mostert.
Best Bet: Raheem Mostert over 67.5 rushing yards (-101 at Ceasars)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Prediction
- Spread
Vikings -3 - Moneyline
Vikings -166, Bears +140 - Total
43.5 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Soldier Field - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: We took the Chiefs -4.5 on Thursday night in the first leg of our two-team, six-point teaser through key numbers, with the Bears +8.5 as the second leg.
I am not buying the Bears just yet after their TNF victory over the Commanders, but I think they can hang around with the banged-up Vikings at home. Not asking them to win here; just don’t lose big.
If you missed out on teasing the Chiefs down to -4.5 and are looking for a teaser leg to pair with the Bears, I would recommend Seattle.
Best Bet: Bears +8.5 in 2nd leg of 6-point teaser with the Chiefs
Soppe: Dating back to the last postseason, six straight Viking games have been decided by a single score. That makes laying points with them a scary proposition any week, let alone a road game, against a divisional opponent who is trending in the right direction and coming off of the mini-bye.
Through five weeks, the Vikings are the blitz-heaviest team in the league, a style that I question against a confident Justin Fields. Chicago’s QB has the athletic tools to punish an aggressive defense, and with a YAC receiver like DJ Moore playing at a high level, this offense should continue to produce in this spot.
On the flip side, Justin Jefferson will miss the first game of his career. Minnesota might be able to overcome the absence of their ace receiver with time, but expecting them to function at a high level this week is a bit optimistic.
I expect this game to be tight late, and in situations like that, I’m happy to take the points on an offense that is playing at a high level.
Best Bet: Bears +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
- Spread
Jaguars -4 - Moneyline
Colts +164, Jaguars -198 - Total
44 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
EverBank Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Soppe: These two teams met in Week 1, a 31-21 Jaguars win in Indy. The result is one thing, but the Colts, with their rookie QB making his debut and the team managing just 2.5 yards per carry, led with under six minutes to play.
This time around, they have a veteran in Gardner Minshew starting, their franchise running back available, and every situational advantage you could ask for.
Over the past two weeks, the Colts have been sleeping in their beds, and while this game is on the road, they head back home for another two games following this contest. The edge may only be minor, but there is no denying that this is a comfortable portion of the schedule for the Colts (they pay for it later with as many true home games as games played outside of the country in Weeks 9-14).
On the other side, you have a Jags team coming off of consecutive wins in London that plays in New Orleans on Thursday night. In the past, most teams have gotten a bye following the London series — the Jags get two games in five days.
The Colts are the better third-down team on both sides of the ball through five weeks, something that should allow them to keep this game tight until the very end. Maybe they win, maybe they don’t, but I’ll take over a field goal in a game that I think is a coin flip.
Best Bet: Colts +4 (-110 at DraftKings)
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans Prediction
- Spread
Saints -1.5 - Moneyline
Saints -125, Texans +105 - Total
42 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
NRG Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: Despite the Saints being 3-2 and coming off a 34-0 shutout win over the Patriots, I have come away unimpressed with them after five weeks so far this season. Derek Carr was supposed to be a big upgrade over Andy Dalton, but the Saints’ offense is 23rd in DVOA, 23rd in EPA/play, and 25th in yards per game. Before their win last week, they had yet to score more than 20 points in a game this season.
Defensively, they’ve been really impressive, but their three wins have come against Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, and Mac Jones — the 21st, 25th, and 31st-ranked QBs by EPA + CPOE composite so far this season. The best quarterback they have faced is Baker Mayfield, who threw for three TDs and had a QBR of 93.8 (out of 100) against them in a 26-9 loss.
This week feels like a great sell-high spot. Not only are they coming off a blowout win over a lifeless Patriots team, but they’ll be on the road going against — by far — the best QB they will have faced so far this season in C.J. Stroud. This might be the best defense Stroud has faced since Week 1 against the Ravens, but the Saints have struggled to get after the quarterback, ranking 32nd in pass-rush win rate.
Best Bet: Texans +1.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Katz: The pattern with Dameon Pierce is pretty straightforward. When he faces weak run defenses like the Steelers and Falcons, he can be moderately efficient. This week, he gets a Saints run defense allowing just 3.5 YPC, the fourth-lowest in the league.
In Weeks 1-3, Pierce totaled 38, 31, and 31 rushing yards. He’s a good player, but his offensive line is doing him no favors. As a result, his season YPC is just 2.94. Let’s fade Pierce in a bad matchup this week.
Best Bet: Dameon Pierce under 48.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
- Spread
Bengals -3 - Moneyline
Seahawks +130, Bengals -155 - Total
45 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Paycor Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: Last week, I recommended James Conner’s rushing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals. We were well on our way to an easy cash before he departed with a knee injury. It was a tough-luck loss, but that doesn’t mean we can’t go back to the well targeting the Bengals’ run defense.
MORE: NFL Bye Weeks Schedule 2023
The Bengals allow 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Walker has at least 64 rushing yards in three of his four games this season. He’s a good player in a good spot against a weak run defense. I think he goes over 100 this week.
Best Bet: Kenneth Walker III over 64.5 rushing yards (-119 at Caesars)
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
- Spread
Raiders -3 - Moneyline
Patriots +130, Raiders -155 - Total
41 - Game Time
4:05 p.m. ET - Location
Allegiant Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: Here is another under I love. Same 42 number as the Ravens/Titans game, with two much worse offenses.
The Raiders are 2-3 despite not topping 20 points in one game yet this season, and the Patriots have three total points in their last eight quarters. The last time they found the end zone was in the second quarter of Week 3.
Unless either one of these teams finally figures it out, this one should stay well under 42.
Best Bet: Under 42 (-112 at DraftKings)
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Lions -166, Buccaneers +140 - Total
42.5 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. ET - Location
Raymond James Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: Death. Taxes. Jared Goff throwing no more than one touchdown on the road. We are going on 13 of his last 14 road starts where Goff has not thrown more than a single touchdown. It’s a thing.
The Bucs have allowed just four passing touchdowns all season. They are coming off their bye. I think they win this game and limit Goff to no more than one touchdown pass.
Best Bet: Jared Goff under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110 at DraftKings)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams Prediction
- Spread
Rams -7 - Moneyline
Cardinals +260, Rams -325 - Total
48 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. ET - Location
SoFi Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: It looked like Matthew Stafford was on pace for a big day against the Eagles last week, as Cooper Kupp looked like his normal self in his first game back from injury, and Puka Nacua was still heavily involved in the game plan. But the Eagles’ pass rush was too much for them to handle, as they were shut out in the second half.
This week, however, they’ll be facing a Cardinals defense that is 31st in dropback success rate and 28th in pass-rush win rate. Stafford’s passing yards prop right now is at 277.5, a number he easily cleared in their two wins this season.
This Cardinals defense is significantly worse than any they have faced all season, and with Stafford and Kupp both at full strength, plus the emergence of Nacua, I like this Rams passing offense to have a monster day.
Best Bet: Matthew Stafford over 277.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -7 - Moneyline
Eagles -298, Jets +240 - Total
42.5 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. ET - Location
MetLife Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: I was all set to take either the Eagles giving points or the Jets team total under this week, but injuries to Jalen Carter and Darius Slay have me a bit nervous.
Carter will be a big loss in both stopping the run and rushing the passer in this one, but the Eagles have a ton of depth on the defensive line to make up for it. They have had the best run defense so far this season and will be going against a Jets offensive line that just lost their best player, Alijah Vera-Tucker, for the season.
If there was any game for the Eagles to be missing Slay, it would be against Zach Wilson. Even without Carter, they’ll still have Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Haason Reddick, and Josh Sweat to get after Wilson, who is one of the worst QBs in the league under pressure.
Instead of taking them to lay a touchdown, however, let’s tease them down to -0.5 and use the Colts as the other teaser leg, getting them up to +10.5
Best Bet: Eagles -0.5 and Colts 10.5 in a 6-point teaser (-134 at FanDuel)