Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is widely hailed as one of the best building blocks in the NFL. Starting with his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign in 2020, Herbert has consistently posted strong numbers and jaw-dropping highlights on film.
Despite this, team success has eluded Herbert. The Chargers made the playoffs once in his first four seasons and are still seeking their first playoff win since drafting Herbert.
Ahead of the Chargers’ Week 16 division showdown with the Denver Broncos, we highlight some of the criticism Herbert has received and analyze how fair those perceptions are.
Is Thursday Night Football a Must-Win for Justin Herbert?
The Chargers have exceeded expectations in their first season under Jim Harbaugh, and they are in a strong position to claim a playoff spot regardless of Thursday night’s result vs. the Broncos. PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives Los Angeles a 66.5% chance to reach the postseason entering Week 16.
However, L.A.’s six losses in 2024 have come against five opponents that are all .500 or better, with four of them (Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) firmly in playoff position.
That’s led to more critique about whether Herbert is really capable of leading the Chargers on a postseason run against stronger opposition. This topic came up on the Fox Sports show “First Things First” ahead of Thursday Night Football:
“We all love Justin Herbert’s ability, his talent, his arm talent, his skills… But at some point, you gotta start beating good teams.”
— @Chris_Broussard pic.twitter.com/JwoY4XYktJ
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) December 19, 2024
So while the Chargers will be in solid shape to nab a playoff berth regardless of Thursday’s result, does Herbert and the team have something to prove against another playoff-caliber opponent?
Is Justin Herbert Underperforming in 2024?
Herbert’s overall numbers have dipped in 2024, with Harbaugh leaning more on the run game. The Chargers had the third-highest dropback rate (64.4%%) over Herbert’s first four seasons from 2020-23 but are 18th in dropback rate (57.7%) this season. Consequently, Herbert’s volume hasn’t been too impressive in 2024, as he’s averaging a career-low 211.4 pass yards per game.
Some metrics would indicate that Herbert’s efficiency is worse as well. PFN’s QB+ metric takes a variety of situational EPA and success rate figures into account and weighs them to produce an overall grade. By that metric, Herbert’s 72.3 (C-minus) grade in 2024 is the worst of his career and ranks 20th on the season. From 2020-23, Herbert never finished lower than 14th in QB+.
It’s not just QB+ that indicates that, as Herbert is averaging a career-low 0.01 EPA per dropback. His touchdown rate (4.0%) is the second-lowest of his career as well.
However, it’s important to consider the context behind those numbers. Herbert lost his top two wide receivers (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams) and strong pass catchers at running back (Austin Ekeler) and tight end (Gerald Everett) during the offseason. He’s been able to minimize mistakes, with 16 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions, giving him the lowest interception rate (0.5%) in the NFL among qualified passers.
Most importantly, the Chargers have been able to generate big plays despite an unimposing group of weapons. Herbert has the highest explosive completion rate (completions that gain 20+ yards) of his career at 17.3%. As a team, the Chargers are 15th in explosive play rate, a big improvement from their 24th-place ranking from 2020-23.
So, while the impressive counting stats aren’t present anymore for Herbert, that’s by design. He’s replaced his high-volume, middling-efficiency playing style with one focused on minimizing mistakes and maximizing big-play opportunities. Coupled with improved defense and coaching, that formula has worked well for the 2024 Chargers.
Does Herbert Shrink Against Strong Competition?
The real question, though, is whether Herbert’s production meaningfully falls off against better competition. The Chargers haven’t won a playoff game since the 2018 season, and they’ll need more than just a few explosive plays per game from Herbert to become Super Bowl contenders in the upcoming years.
Over the course of his career, there’s really no evidence that Herbert plays worse against better competition. Against teams that enter with a winning record, Herbert averages 0.09 EPA per dropback, compared to 0.10 against teams that enter .500 or worse. He ranks 10th against winning opponents, compared to 11th against opponents that are .500 or worse.
Other more traditional stats paint a similar picture for Herbert’s career:
- vs. Above .500 Teams: 7.2 yards per attempt, 265.0 pass yards per game, 95.2 passer rating
- vs. .500-or-Worse Teams: 7.1 yards per attempt, 266.0 pass yards per game, 96.4 passer rating
Isolating just the 2024 season, the results look a little worse for Herbert, but not dramatically so. He’s averaging -0.03 EPA per play and 6.5 yards per attempt against above .500 teams compared to 0.06 EPA per play and 8.3 yards per attempt against .500-or-worse teams. That’s a meaningful difference for sure but in a much smaller sample size.
The lone difference is in the record, but that’s obviously a team stat more so than a quarterback one. Herbert is 11-19 against teams that enter with a winning record, compared to 27-19 against teams .500 or worse. Fairly or not, much of that will get pinned on him despite his actual performance being almost identical to both types of opponents.
Of course, the easiest way for the Chargers and Herbert to quiet the noise is by making a meaningful playoff run. Los Angeles is ahead of schedule in 2024, but with higher expectations next year, both Herbert and the team as a whole will need to deliver better bottom-line results against other true contenders.
