The Minnesota Vikings have to discuss what their plan is at quarterback. Sam Darnold had an outstanding year as the leader of the Vikings offense. However, the Vikings drafted Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy to be their quarterback of the future in the 2024 NFL Draft. He got injured in the preseason and missed the entire year, allowing Darnold to put up a career year while leaving the Vikings with a tough decision.
ESPN’s Aaron Schatz predicts that the Vikings will decide to run it back with Darnold leaving McCarthy as an expendable trade piece.
Is Sam Darnold the Answer at QB for the Vikings?
Darnold had his best season in the NFL after struggling to find his footing early in his career. He racked up 4,319 yards, and 35 touchdowns while completing 66.2% of his passes which is five percentage points higher than his career completion percentage.
He played all 17 games for the first time in his career and limited the turnovers better than he had in the rest of his career (his 2.2% interception rate was the second-best of his career in seasons where he started two or more games).
Darnold finished as the 12th-best quarterback in PFSN’s QB+ metric with a grade of 79.0 (B). His 7.3 yards per attempt was good for eighth in the league, which is encouraging when he only received 4.9 YAC/Cp which ranked 30th in the NFL. He was top 10 in the league in passing yards and was 11th in EPA/DB from a clean pocket. Darnold’s resurgence in Minnesota is encouraging and has left Minnesota in a pickle.
He is likely the top free-agent quarterback on many teams’ wish lists and will be due for the best payday of his career. Schatz predicts that his contract will be similar to the one that Daniel Jones received with the New York Giants, built to have an out halfway through if Darnold doesn’t perform to the standard he set in 2024.
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Darnold will be 28 years old in June and has plenty of years to offer. Under Darnold, the Vikings’ offense finished 13th in the league in PFSN’s Offense+ metric with a grade of 78.6 (C+).
The offense was up and down throughout the season which culminated in its implosion in the first round of the playoffs against the Los Angeles Rams. The offensive line was inconsistent throughout the season finishing 22nd in non-blitz pressure rate at 34%. The offense will need to find some consistency to improve into a top-10 offense next year.
What Might a J.J. McCarthy Trade Look Like
If Darnold is signed as the Vikings’ future franchise quarterback, there is no clear path for McCarthy to get the starting job any time soon. This could allow the Vikings to explore a trade for him. He would likely command a solid return as he would be compared favorably to the quarterbacks in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft class.
“McCarthy won’t garner a top pick because he has one less season on his rookie contract than Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward will have, but he could get the Vikings a package of picks that would help to replenish their draft allotment,” Schatz said of a potential return for McCarthy’s services.
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McCarthy was the fifth quarterback off the board in last year’s draft but was the 10th overall pick. The Vikings traded up one slot with the New York Jets to be able to select the star out of Michigan.
A McCarthy trade could help to recoup some draft picks Minnesota is missing as they currently have no picks in the second, third, or fourth rounds, not yet accounting for any potential compensatory picks.
Before last season, this option would seem farfetched as McCarthy seemed poised to be the QB of the future and potentially even the starter by season’s end. The Vikings winning 14 games with Darnold was a surprise to many fans, but now the possibility of Darnold being the franchise QB for years to come in Minnesota is becoming more real.
