With just three weeks of the regular season left, our opportunities for NFL betting are limited. Positively, it means we have plenty of data points on which to base our decisions. Included in that is the NFL against the spread (ATS) standings which informs us which teams cover the spread the most, and who has been struggling to match up to expectations.
Against the Spread NFL Standings Entering Week 16
T1) Dallas Cowboys | 9-5
T1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-5
T1) Baltimore Ravens | 9-5
T1) Indianapolis Colts | 9-5
T1) Miami Dolphins | 9-5
T1) Detroit Lions | 9-5
T7) Cleveland Browns | 8-5-1
T7) Seattle Seahawks | 8-5-1
T7) Los Angeles Rams | 8-5-1
10) Minnesota Vikings | 7-4-3
11) Philadelphia Eagles | 7-5-2
T12) Jacksonville Jaguars | 8-6
T12) San Francisco 49ers | 8-6
T14) Las Vegas Raiders | 7-6-1
T14) Kansas City Chiefs | 7-6-1
T16) Chicago Bears | 6-6-2
T16) Cincinnati Bengals | 6-6-2
T18) Pittsburgh Steelers | 7-7
T18) Green Bay Packers | 7-7
T18) Arizona Cardinals | 7-7
T18) Houston Texans | 7-7
T22) Tennessee Titans | 6-8
T22) Buffalo Bills | 6-8
T24) Washington Commanders | 5-8-1
T24) New York Jets | 5-8-1
T24) Denver Broncos | 5-8-1
T24) New York Giants | 5-8-1
28) Los Angeles Chargers | 5-9
29) New Orleans Saints | 4-9-1
30) Atlanta Falcons | 4-10
31) Carolina Panthers | 3-9-2
32) New England Patriots | 3-10-1
Which Teams Are the Best and Worst at Covering the Spread in 2023?
After the Cowboys’ thrashing at the hands of the Bills, we have a six-way tie atop the ATS standings this week. Dallas is joined by the Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Ravens, and Lions at 9-5 ATS.
At the bottom of the table are the Patriots at 3-10-1 ATS. This week, the Patriots head to Denver to face a Broncos team desperate to bounce back from a mauling at the hands of the Lions.
MORE: Free NFL Playoff Predictor Tool
The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites, which is a bigger line than they have covered at any point this season. Denver is also 2-5 ATS as favorites, while the Patriots are 2-8-1 as underdogs. Based on those numbers, this may be a game to steer clear of in terms of betting ATS as neither team looks particularly trustworthy.
The Cowboys and Dolphins face off in Miami this week in a contest of two teams that cover the spread more than 60% of the time. The Dolphins are slight favorites, which is a bad sign for the Cowboys. Dallas is 0-3 ATS and straight up as underdogs this season, with all three coming on the road.
Miami is 8-2 ATS when favored. Both of those failures to cover came when they were favored by double digits. Those numbers would suggest that Miami is the team to back this week with Dallas having failed to cover four times in road games this season.
The Colts are slim favorites over the Falcons this week. They’re 5-0 this season when favored by three points or less, which looks set to be the case again this week. Atlanta is 4-10 ATS in 2023, but 2-2 as underdogs. This still feels like a week to back the Colts against a hit-and-miss Falcons offense.
MORE: Early Week 16 Predictions, ATS Picks
Tampa Bay will host the Jaguars this week in a crucial playoff battle. The line in this game is going to be very dependent on the health of Trevor Lawrence.
The Buccaneers are playing well with three straight wins, and if they’re favored by three points or less — or underdogs — they’re the team I would back this week.
The Lions got back on track last week and now face a Vikings team struggling for an offensive identity. Detroit has been hit or miss this season. They’ve covered four of their last seven (all as favorites) and should be a solid bet to cover anything less than three points against the Nick Mullens-led Vikings.
Baltimore will close out Week 16 with a game-of-the-week candidate against the 49ers. Baltimore has won eight of their last nine and covered four of their last six. They are 1-0 as underdogs this year but on the road against the 49ers is their toughest test so far.
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