Entering Week 17, five of the seven playoff spots in the NFC were already spoken for. The only outstanding spots were the final Wild Card and the NFC South title.
Two of the three NFC Wild Card spots will belong to the NFC North. The trio of the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers have all clinched postseason berths, though their exact seeds are still to be determined.
After that, there were a few different scenarios. But since the Washington Commanders defeated the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17, they clinched the final Wild Card spot and will make their first playoff appearance since 2020.
What Was the NFC Wild Card Picture Entering Week 17?
Here are the teams that occupied the NFC Wild Card spots heading into Sunday Night Football in Week 17:
5. Detroit Lions
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Washington Commanders
As mentioned above, the Vikings and Packers have clinched no worse than a Wild Card spot. Green Bay cannot win the NFC North, so the Packers will definitely be on the road for Wild Card Weekend.
The last spot belonged to either the Commanders or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The reason why other teams cannot earn the spot:
- The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks would both lose the conference record tiebreaker to Washington if tied at 10-7.
- The Atlanta Falcons cannot pass Washington without also winning the NFC South, so the Falcons can only make the playoffs as the NFC South champions.
What Were the NFC Wild Card Clinching Scenarios in Week 17?
The Commanders had the opportunity to clinch the final Wild Card spot in the following scenario:
- Win or tie vs. ATL
TB loss or tie vs. CAR
Scenario No. 1 is self-explanatory — and it’s the path they took to the playoffs with their thrilling overtime victory over the Falcons. The Commanders led the Falcons and Bucs by two games, so it would have been impossible for either to catch Washington with only one game left to play after Week 17.
Entering Sunday Night Football, scenario No. 2 was out of reach as the Buccaneers defeated the Carolina Panthers in the early slate on Sunday. Had the Panthers won, and if Washington lost to Atlanta, the Falcons would have clinched the final NFC Wild Card. But that was not possible with Tampa Bay winning.
It is worth noting that the Buccaneers can win the NFC South in Week 18 since the Falcons lost to the Commanders on Sunday Night Football. To do so, they will need to defeat the New Orleans Saints in Week 18.
If the Falcons defeated the Commanders, then all they would have needed to do was defeat the Panthers in Week 18 to clinch the NFC South.
Washington had a significant edge for the final Wild Card spot since the only scenario where the Commanders would have missed the playoffs was with a 0-2 finish coupled with a 2-0 finish for the Falcons AND a 2-0 finish for the Buccaneers. In that scenario:
- The Commanders, Falcons, and Buccaneers would all be 10-7.
- The Falcons would win the NFC South over the Buccaneers (swept the head-to-head).
- The Buccaneers would earn the No. 7 seed over the Commanders by virtue of their Week 1 win over Washington.
None of that matters anymore — the Commanders are in the playoffs, and all that’s left in the NFC is to finalize the seeding.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.