The NFC West was the tightest division race for nearly the entire 2024 NFL season. As of last week, all four teams were still mathematically alive for the division crown.
However, in Week 17, we’ve started to gain some clarity on the NFC West. The Los Angeles Rams are currently in the driver’s seat over the Seattle Seahawks, while the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers are eliminated from playoff contention.
Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s take a look at the scenarios needed for both the Rams and Seahawks to win the division.
Current NFC West Standings
Here are the NFC West standings following Thursday Night Football in Week 17:
- Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
- Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
- Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
The Rams won the first head-to-head matchup vs. the Seahawks in Week 9 at Seattle, though the teams have a rematch in Week 18.
Even if Seattle wins that matchup, the Seahawks aren’t particularly likely to win the head-to-head tiebreaker (which will be explained below).
After Seattle’s win over the Chicago Bears on Thursday, PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Rams a 53.6% chance of winning the division, while the Seahawks have a 46.4% chance.
Can Anyone Clinch the NFC West in Week 17?
Yes, it’s possible for the Rams to clinch the division in Week 17.
Entering Thursday Night Football, there were several ways for the Rams to clinch the division over the Seahawks. But since Seattle defeated the Bears on Thursday, this is the only clinching scenario that remains a possibility in Week 17:
- LAR win + at least 3.5 wins from WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, and CLE
This is more complicated than a typical clinching scenario, but it relates to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker. In the event that the Seahawks and Rams both finish 10-7 (with Seattle beating Los Angeles in Week 18), they’ll be tied on each of the first four tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head: Split 1-1
- Division Record: 4-2 each
- Common Games: 8-6 each
- Conference Record: 6-6 each
If that occurs, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory. The Rams have the significant edge in that category as of Week 17. The teams that Los Angeles has defeated have combined for 60 wins entering Week 17, compared to 55 combined wins for Seattle’s defeated opponents (including Chicago).
Thus, if that group of six teams combines for at least 3.5 wins in Week 17, the Rams will be guaranteed to finish with a higher strength of victory regardless of what happens in Week 18.
The Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills and swept the San Francisco 49ers (the Seahawks lost to both the Vikings and Bills and went 1-1 vs. the 49ers). Therefore, those three teams winning helps the Rams’ strength of victory.
The Washington Commanders (vs. the Atlanta Falcons), Cincinnati Bengals (vs. the Denver Broncos) and Cleveland Browns (vs. the Miami Dolphins) all face teams that the Seahawks beat but the Rams either lost to or didn’t face. So those three teams winning hurts the Seahawks’ strength of victory.
If at least four of those six teams win (or three wins plus one tie), the Rams will officially clinch strength of victory.
What Do the Los Angeles Rams Need To Win the NFC West?
The Rams can clinch the NFC West as soon as Week 17, as outlined above.
Realistically, though, the Week 18 game is the only one that really matters for the Rams. Los Angeles is guaranteed to win the division with a home win over Seattle, no matter what happens in Week 17.
The Rams will likely clinch the division with a win in Week 17 over the Cardinals, even if they lose to the Seahawks in Week 18. However, they won’t know whether that’s true on Saturday night, and will have to wait for the strength-of-victory scenario outlined above to play out.
What Do the Seattle Seahawks Need To Win the NFC West?
The Seahawks’ simplest scenario is to finish 2-0 while the Rams finish 0-2, giving Seattle the outright better record. They took care of business against the Bears in Week 17, which is a good start. However, there are two other scenarios that would allow the Seahawks to win a tie:
- SEA finishes 1-1 and LAR finishes 0-2
- SEA overcomes nine-win deficit in SOV
The second scenario is very unlikely, as it requires numerous games to break in Seattle’s favor over a two-week span to overcome the massive deficit in strength of victory (outlined above).
However, if the Rams lose to the Cardinals on Saturday, then Week 18 becomes a true winner-take-all situation.
It’s worth noting that Seattle must win the NFC West to make the playoffs — they cannot earn an NFC Wild Card spot.